How to accelerate the development of clean, low-carbon and efficient energy?丨Focus on the Action Plan for Continuous Improvement of Air Quality
The Action Plan for Continuous Improvement of Air Quality (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan") issued by the State Council recently proposes to optimize the energy structure and accelerate the development of clean, low-carbon and efficient energy. It is required that by 2025, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach about 20%, and the proportion of electric energy in final energy consumption will reach about 30%. We will continue to increase the production and supply of natural gas, and give priority to ensuring the needs of residents and clean heating.
The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is a critical period and window period for China to respond to climate change and achieve the goal of carbon peaking, and it is a key five years for key industries and provinces to achieve green and low-carbon transformation and development. 2023 is a key year for the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the State Council chose to release the Plan at the end of 2023, clearly proposing to vigorously develop new and clean energy, pointing out the direction for green transformation and high-quality development.
The development of green energy must be "established first and then broken"
The plan calls for strict and reasonable control of total coal consumption. On the premise of ensuring the security of energy supply, the total coal consumption control will continue to be implemented in key areas. By 2025, coal consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas and the Yangtze River Delta region will drop by about 10% and 5% respectively compared with 2020, and coal consumption in the Fenwei Plain will achieve negative growth, focusing on reducing non-power coal.
"The endowment of energy resources determines that our country should take the path of direct replacement of coal by renewable energy, rather than replacing coal with oil and gas, and then replacing oil and gas with renewable energy. Wang Zhixuan, vice chairman of the expert committee of the China Electricity Council and member of the National Climate Change Expert Committee, said that in the process of substitution, it is necessary to adhere to the principle of "first establishing and then breaking", and the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable replacement of new energy, which is also the core point of building a new energy system. At the same time, the relevant elements of the new energy system are also evolving compared with the past.
At the 2023 International Symposium on Green Transformation and High-quality Development, hosted by the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and the Chinese Society for Environmental Sciences, and co-organized by the National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation (NCSC) and the Energy Research Institute of Peking University, Wang Zhixuan pointed out that the first is that the balance between economy, energy and environment has changed: from resource value orientation to ecological value and technological value orientation; Finally, the constraints of transformation have gradually evolved from the constraints of resource endowment to the constraints of meteorological factors and energy security factors.
In addition, he highlighted the new power system, which is the core of the new energy system, and the power industry has entered the strategic direction of focusing on carbon reduction during the 14th Five-Year Plan. In particular, there have been significant changes in the function of coal power. From the past electricity support to the main power support, flexible adjustment and supply to ensure the safety of the power system.
Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, and vice chairman of the China Development Research Foundation, put forward an important concept, namely "innovative carbon substitution", which replaces traditional high-carbon technologies with low-carbon and zero-carbon technologies to achieve the purpose of carbon reduction. This substitution not only reduces carbon emissions, but also significantly reduces the carbon emission intensity per unit of output and reduces the cost of carbon reduction. He proposed that "innovative carbon substitution" should be incorporated into the full-caliber carbon accounting system, and a full-caliber carbon emission reduction accounting system including output increment and stock, carbon substitution and traditional carbon emission reduction should be formed, so as to objectively evaluate the significance and value of innovation-driven "carbon substitution" in the green transformation, and provide new ideas and solutions for achieving the goal of carbon neutrality.
Regarding the implementation of low-carbon green technologies, Liu Shijin said: "China has obvious advantages in innovative low-carbon green technologies, including a well-established industrial chain, strong resilience and shock resistance, as well as the vitality and rapid response ability of private enterprises in innovation. He said that these advantages will help China play an important role in the global green transition, promoting the harmony and win-win situation of economic growth and environmental protection.
The development of green energy requires a new mechanism
The "Plan" proposes that it is necessary to actively play the role of fiscal and financial guidance. The scope of central financial support for clean heating in the northern region will be expanded in an orderly manner, and coordinated projects for pollution reduction and carbon reduction will be favored. In accordance with the market-oriented approach, we will increase credit financing support in the fields of upgrading traditional industries and clusters, industrial pollution control, construction of special railway lines, and promotion of new energy railway equipment, and guide social capital investment. Carry out green finance evaluation of banking financial institutions as required, and attract long-term institutional investors to invest in green financial products. Actively support qualified enterprises and financial institutions to issue green bonds, carry out green bond credit ratings, and improve the level of information disclosure of green bonds.
"Energy development is shifting from resource dependence to technology dependence, bringing profound changes, and the economic improvement of new energy technology is driving the rapid growth of new energy. Yang Lei, deputy dean of Peking University's Energy Research Institute, said that in the past 10 years, the proportion of wind power generation has increased from 2.0% in 2012 to 8.8%, and the proportion of solar power generation has increased from 0.08% to 4.9%. In 2023, it will have an explosive growth, and it is expected that the installed capacity of wind and solar will exceed 200 million kilowatts. "This has also brought us many new challenges, such as the cross-seasonal volatility of new energy sources, and the load changes of electric vehicle charging and discharging. We should optimize and improve the flexibility and resilience of the energy system from a systemic perspective, deepen the energy revolution, drive new business models, and promote the transformation of the energy system construction from traditional energy supply to the integrated development of energy supply and demand, so as to truly build a new energy system. ”
Xia Qing, a professor at Tsinghua University, said that there is a phenomenon of "overcapacity" in China's new energy development, for example, the development of distributed photovoltaic is very fast, and the power grid is difficult to absorb due to the lack of sufficient regulation resources; Therefore, this "excess" is a kind of appearance, the essence of which is that the mechanism is not in place, and the relations of production need to be adapted to the productive forces. "There is now a concern that new energy is growing too fast for the grid to absorb. In fact, as long as the spot market mechanism is in place and all new energy enters the market, the time-sharing node electricity price with significant differences and reflects the volatility of new energy will inevitably activate distributed energy storage everywhere, promote the local consumption of new energy, greatly reduce the pressure on the large power grid to absorb new energy, and gradually replace thermal power with new energy plus energy storage. ”
Xia Qing also believes that in the balance mechanism, there should also be corresponding reforms to adapt to the development of new energy. Germany, for example, uses the "balance unit" model. "The next problem we need to focus on is how to use the price mechanism to effectively coordinate these resources, move from supply-side reform to demand-side reform, and drive the development of new energy and new energy storage from demand. All technological innovation is the result, and only the mechanism is the source and driving force of innovation. ”
Eliminate backward production capacity and develop a low-carbon economy
The plan requires that the withdrawal from backward production capacity in key industries be accelerated. Revise the "Catalogue for the Guidance of Industrial Structure Adjustment", and study the inclusion of processes and equipment whose pollutant or greenhouse gas emissions are significantly higher than the industry average level, and whose energy efficiency and cleaner production levels are low into the elimination and restriction lists.
"High-quality industrial carbon peaking is the basic requirement for building a new type of industrialization. Tian Zhiyu, executive director of the Sustainable Development Research Center of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that industry is not only an important source of energy consumption and carbon emissions, but also an important carrier and main driving force for low-carbon and zero-carbon technology and material innovation. As the world's largest manufacturing country, China has the basic conditions for the transformation from high-speed industrialization to high-quality industrialization. New industrial projects with large investment and long life span face both short-term challenges such as the current CBAM and long-term challenges of carbon neutrality. He suggested that advanced enterprises, leading industries, and developed regions have the necessary and conditions to take the lead in accelerating the green and low-carbon transformation of industry, increase energy conservation and efficiency improvement, electrification and digital transformation, and continuously cultivate and forge new green kinetic energy and competitive advantages in the development environment and under the premise of ensuring safety.
Wang Hao, director of the Industrial Policy Research Institute of the China Electronic Information Industry Development Research Institute, said that new industrialization is not only the embodiment of technological progress and industrial upgrading, but also the exploration of green and low-carbon transformation. To achieve this transformation, we need to focus on the three goals: high-end, intelligent and green products and production processes. This transformation will not only strengthen China's position in the global industrial chain and value chain, but will also be crucial to meeting the country's requirements for energy conservation and emission reduction. In the face of demographic changes and international green and low-carbon requirements, China's manufacturing industry has encountered challenges, but it has also ushered in opportunities for transformation. New industrialization requires new technologies and models, especially the application of information technology, which will promote industrial model innovation and promote the integration of manufacturing and service industries. He stressed that China must promote green development through industrial innovation, which is the core driving force of new industrialization. Through the leadership of technology and innovation, China will achieve greener development.
"On the basis of carbon emission intensity control, we should gradually shift to the 'dual control' of total carbon emission and intensity, and scientifically set the peak level of carbon dioxide emissions in combination with the national carbon peak implementation plan and the mid-term assessment of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and scientifically formulate the carbon emission increment target and decomposition implementation mechanism for the three years after the 14th Five-Year Plan. Xu Huaqing, director of the National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, said that it is necessary to study and set the total control target and quota allocation plan of the national carbon emission trading market, and do a good job in the connection between the "dual control" of carbon emissions and the emission trading system, and to study and formulate differentiated regional carbon emission total and intensity control targets and management models, and gradually establish a "top-down" It is necessary to speed up the improvement of the annual carbon emission accounting method and reporting system for provincial and municipal administrative regions, and implement the accounting and reporting system for greenhouse gas emissions of key units; it is necessary to accelerate the legislative process of responding to climate change, and establish a system and policy system with the "dual control" of carbon emissions as the core to ensure that the work of carbon peaking is done in a strong, orderly and effective manner.
