National carbon market prices jump in August Carbon prices are expected to rise across the board in September
With the launch of quota issuance and compliance in 2021 and 2022, the national carbon market price soared. Since August, the average daily closing price of CEA in the national carbon market has been 69.07 yuan / ton, a sharp increase of 13.21% on the basis of the high of the previous month, and recently updated the record high since the national carbon market was launched.
According to the results of the Fudan Carbon Price Index for September 2023 recently released by the Center for Sustainable Development of Fudan University (hereinafter referred to as the "Research Center"), the CEA and CCER price indices of the national carbon market are expected to rise across the board in September.
8Monthly National Carbon MarketPrices "skyrocketing"
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment recently said that the national carbon emission trading market has recently launched the issuance and compliance of quotas in 2021 and 2022. At present, the distribution of quotas has been basically completed, and the work of clearing and fulfilling the contract has been fully carried out.
随着第二个履约期相关工作的启动，全国碳市场8月以来Prices "skyrocketing"。研究中心总结的8Monthly National Carbon Market运行情况显示，价格方面，2023年8月以来CEA的日均收盘价为69.07元/吨，在上月高位基础上再次大幅上涨13.21%。本月收盘价首次突破每吨70元，并且在23日刷新了自全国碳市场上线交易以来的历史新高。
In terms of trading volume, the national carbon market has continued to be active since August, with the monthly trading volume of allowances exceeding 7.32 million tons, setting a new monthly trading volume this year. More than two-thirds of the trading day trading volume exceeded the order of 100,000 tons, and the average daily trading volume reached 385,800 tons.
“总体来说，8Monthly National Carbon Market表现出如下明显特征：一是价格波动上升、连创新高；二是市场交易持续活跃，成交量大幅跃升。”研究中心表示。
9Month CEAandCCERThe price index is expected to rise across the board
研究中心同步公布的复旦碳价指数结果显示，9月全国碳排放配额的买入价格预期为70.27元/吨，卖出价格预期为74.19元/吨，中间价为72.23元/吨；买入价格指数为175.67，上升21.54%；卖出价格指数为167.40，上升20.56%；中间价格指数为171.32，上升21.03%。同时，2023年9Monthly National Carbon Market履约使用中国核证自愿减排量（CCER）的买入价格预期为59.74元/吨，卖出价格预期为62.84元/吨，中间价为61.29元/吨；买入价格指数为150.18，上涨8.05%；卖出价格指数为151.17，上涨8.16%；中间价格指数为150.68，上涨8.10%。
In terms of local pilot carbon markets, the CCER buying price used in the Beijing and Shanghai carbon markets in September is expected to be 65.75 yuan/ton, and the selling price is expected to be 71.16 yuan/tonne. In September, the CCER buying price used in the Guangzhou carbon market was expected to be 63.73 yuan/ton, and the selling price was expected to be 68.64 yuan/ton. The CCER buying price used in other pilot carbon markets in September is expected to be 58.01 yuan/tonne, and the selling price is expected to be 62.46 yuan/tonne.
According to the research center, the CCER price index of each market generally rose in September in the national and pilot carbon markets. The CCER price used in the national carbon market has a 95% probability of falling within the range of 59.74-62.84 yuan/ton, which is significantly higher than that of the previous month. After nearly four months of divergence, although the Beishang and Guangzhou markets still maintain a leading position, the price gap between the various local markets has narrowed significantly and gradually converged.
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment recently said that it will strive to launch the national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market as soon as possible this year, and effectively play the important role of market mechanisms in controlling greenhouse gas emissions and promoting green and low-carbon technological innovation.
