For the first time, global PV investment will surpass that of oil
This year, the new installed capacity of photovoltaics has once again exceeded expectations.
On December 15, the 2023 Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference was held in Suqian, Jiangsu. Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the Photovoltaic Association), said at the meeting that the growth momentum of the photovoltaic industry is strong this year.
1-10In January, China's new PV installed capacity was 142.56 GW, a year-on-year increase of 145% and a record high. Up to now, more than half of the country's new installed power generation capacity comes from photovoltaic power generation.
According to the data of the Photovoltaic Association, the output of China's photovoltaic manufacturing end (silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells, modules) also hit a record high in the same period. Among them, the output of polysilicon is about 1.14 million tons, the output of silicon wafers is about 460 GW, the output of cells is about 404 GW, and the output of photovoltaic modules is about 367 GW, all of which increased by more than 70% year-on-year.
Even though the industry is constantly changing, there is still a high degree of certainty in the growth of PV demand.
Wang Bohua said that global clean energy-related investment has surpassed fossil energy for eight consecutive years. Investment in solar is expected to reach US$382 billion in 2023 and US$371 billion in oil. This means that for the first time in history, solar investment will surpass oil.
In this case, the PV Association raised its installation forecast for 2023 for the second time, and it is expected that the global new PV installed capacity will be raised from 305-350 GW to 345-390 GW; China's new PV capacity has been raised from 120-140 GW to 160-180 GW.
From the perspective of the type of new installed capacity this year, the proportion of distributed is slightly higher than that of centralized, but the growth rate of centralized is faster. In the first three quarters, 61.79 GW of new installed capacity of centralized PV was added, a year-on-year increase of 257.8%. The new installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic was 67.14 GW, a year-on-year increase of 90%, of whichThe growth of residential consumption has nearly doubled, outpacing the growth rate of industrial and commercial photovoltaics, and the installed capacity of the two is almost equal.
"In the first three quarters, the centralized force was more obvious. Since the first batch of large wind and solar bases must be connected to the grid before the end of the year, the centralized development in the fourth quarter may be faster. In the overall installed capacity structure of the whole year, the proportion of centralized will increase year-on-year. Wang Bohua said.
Although the demand has not decreased, the decline in the price of the industrial chain has brought a certain impact to the photovoltaic industry. Wang Bohua said that China's photovoltaic exports have changed greatly, and last year in the trend of "both volume and price increase", the export volume still increased by more than eighty percent on the basis of a large base, but this year's "price" has decreased significantly.
According to data from the Photovoltaic Association, from January to October this year, China's total exports of photovoltaic products were about 42.99 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%.
From the perspective of "volume", driven by market demand, the export volume of domestic photovoltaic products is still increasing. The export volume of silicon wafers, cells and modules was 55.7 GW, 32.4 GW and 177.6 GW respectively, up 90%, 72% and 34% year-on-year, respectively.
Compared with the same period last year, the market share of the top three export markets all decreased to varying degrees, and the module export market tended to be more diversified, and the regional share outside the top ten markets increased significantly.
Europe remains the largest export market for Chinese modules, accounting for about 52.9% of exports, but its share has decreased compared to the same period last year. Module exports to Asia increased.
"If you want to say the hot words in the industry this year, one is surplus, and the other is price reduction." Wang Bohua said that since February, the price of photovoltaic modules has been falling. Since October, the lowest value of a single watt in the bid opening price of photovoltaic modules of many enterprises has fallen below 1 yuan.
In addition to the price, this year, PV has also begun to cool down on the capital side.
"In the last report, I was raving about PV's ability to move right and left in the financial sector, but now that's changed. First of all, after August, there was a trend of phased tightening of financial policies, which delayed the listing and financing of the industry to a certain extent. Wang Bohua said.
According to incomplete statistics from the Photovoltaic Association, there will be 15 listed photovoltaic companies in 2022, and only 5 so far this year, and about 40 photovoltaic companies have updated their IPOs and are waiting to be listed, but the progress may be delayed, and the news of the termination of IPOs by enterprises has also come out from time to time.
"Although the current industry is facing risks and challenges, the overall trend of the industry has not changed." Jin Lei, director of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the meeting that the climate change conference that just concluded this week, relevant delegates pledged to triple renewable energy production capacity by 2030, which provides huge space for the development of China's and even the world's photovoltaic industry.
On December 13, local time, the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) reached a consensus on the first global inventory of the Paris Agreement, and countries need to phase out fossil energy in the energy system in order to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), renewable energy accounted for 30% of electricity generation in 2022 and will rise to nearly 50% in 2030, when renewable energy capacity will increase by 2.4x in the established policy scenario (STEPS) and 3x in the net-zero emissions scenario (NZE), with nearly 95% of the growth coming from solar PV and wind.
At the same time, the association pointed out that the future market will be more difficult to predict due to uncertain factors such as consumption, market-based electricity trading, and the progress of source grid construction.
Under the new international situation, it has become a trend for Chinese photovoltaic companies to go overseas. Li Shuo, deputy director of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, mentioned in his speech at the conference that trade risks still need to be vigilant, geopolitical risks still exist, and enterprises going out have problems such as insufficient understanding of overseas investment risks, incomplete understanding of local policies, and lagging construction of international talent teams. The Ministry of Commerce will further deepen the opening up to the outside world and create a better environment for promoting the high-quality development of photovoltaic product trade.
Jin Lei said that the Electronics Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will release the new version of the photovoltaic manufacturing industry standard conditions in 2024, improve the requirements of relevant technical indicators, thoroughly implement the guidance on promoting the development of the energy electronics industry, promote the integrated development of optical storage, increase counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment in a timely manner, and expand the application of the industry.
At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote industrial innovation, strengthen industry self-discipline and supporting construction, deepen international cooperation and mechanisms, implement the Belt and Road Initiative, build a photovoltaic docking cooperation platform, and support the expansion of new models of international cooperation.
