The Dubai Climate Conference reached a consensus and global climate governance started again

On December 13, 2023 local time, the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (hereinafter referred to as COP28) concluded in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, after a day of negotiation "overtime". The conference completed the first global stocktake since the entry into force of the Paris Agreement, and reached a package of agreements on a number of issues such as adaptation to climate change and loss and damage funds, which became another milestone after the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference.

1. The achievements of this conference are outstanding

Compared with last year's COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, COP28 has been very successful. On the one hand, the parties have made major breakthroughs in negotiations and reached consensus on key issues such as the first global stocktake and the transition to fossil fuels, and on the other hand, various financial commitments and action initiatives have emerged, and the implementation of global climate action has accelerated. Speaking at the closing plenary, Sultan Jaber, president of the conference, said the conference had reached "a strengthened, balanced, but undoubtedly historic package to accelerate climate action" and that "we should be proud of our historic achievements".

A "historic consensus" on fossil fuels has finally been reached. The conference reached a final agreement on the "First Global Stocktaking Conclusions", which included the language on fossil fuels for the first time. The agreement calls on countries to "reduce the energy system's dependence on fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner, and accelerate action in this critical decade to achieve science-based net-zero emissions by 2050". This is the first time in nearly 30 years since the UN Climate Change Conference was held that countries agreed to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels. In addition, the agreement calls for tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling global annual energy efficiency by 2030, and accelerating the adoption of net-zero and low-carbon technologies such as carbon capture, utilization and storage. The Dubai Climate Change Conference ushered in a new era of transition from fossil fuels, and the global low-carbon energy transition has entered the fast lane.

Climate finance is well underway. Finance is key to climate action and has been a key topic at previous UN Climate Change conferences. The conference was "fast and much" in terms of fundraising: the decision to launch the loss and damage fund was adopted on the first day of the conference, and $792 million has been pledged, the UAE has pushed for the creation of ALTÉRRA, the world's largest private climate fund, with a massive $30 billion investment and plans to mobilize $250 billion in private sector investment by 2030, and the United Nations Green Climate Fund has received a $3.5 billion replenishment to a total of $12.8 billion. By closing, the conference had raised more than $85 billion.

Climate action initiatives are far greater than ever before. Under the impetus of the United Arab Emirates, the presidency of the conference, countries, international organizations, industry associations, enterprises and other forces are actively participating in global climate action. Focusing on climate finance, health, decarbonization, hydrogen, food, gender equality, biodiversity and other diverse issues, the conference launched 10 declarations, commitments and several action plans, such as the Declaration on Climate and Health, the Declaration on Action on Food, Agriculture and Climate, the Global Declaration on Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency, the Industrial Transformation Accelerator Program, and the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter.

Second, climate negotiations are long and difficult

Simon Steele, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, said there had been "real progress" at the conference, but that the agreement adopted was a "lifeline" for global climate action, not a "finish line". UN climate negotiations are an ongoing and lengthy process that cannot be achieved overnight. The remarkable results of the Dubai Climate Change Conference have injected confidence and impetus into global climate governance, but at the same time, it has also exposed sharp contradictions between countries on key issues such as fossil fuels and climate finance, and the game over how to accelerate climate action and implement the commitments of the Paris Agreement will become more complicated in the future.

The fossil fuel divide has not really been resolved. Despite the inclusion of "reducing fossil fuel dependence" in the General Assembly's agreement, there are still differences of opinion behind the apparent consensus. In the course of this negotiation, developed countries and oil-producing countries have engaged in-for-tat confrontation, throwing out the "bottom line" and refusing to make concessions. Developed countries and the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) insisted that the deal must explicitly "phase out" fossil fuels, while OPEC members said the deal should focus on carbon emissions, not fossil fuels themselves. In order to facilitate the agreement, the Bureau adopted a compromise formulation, leaving room for compromise among the negotiating parties. At present, the final agreement of the conference is more of a principled call to reduce the use of fossil fuels, and it is not specified in the way of implementation and the specific timetable. There is a lot of room for interpretation and manipulation of the fossil fuel issue, and the debate on this issue will continue in the future.

Funding remains the sticking point. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) said in November that if the current rate of global carbon emissions remains unchanged, the global average temperature will rise by about 2.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century, well above the Paris Agreement target, with potentially catastrophic consequences. To accelerate global climate action, financial support must be in place. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) estimates that developing countries currently need between US$215 billion and US$387 billion a year to adapt to climate change, but the funding gap is as high as US$194 billion to US$366 billion. The global energy transition also requires significant capital investment. The conference agreement highlighted the need for $4.3 trillion a year in clean energy investment by 2030 and $5 trillion a year between 2030 and 2050. Funding will be a key focus at COP29 in Azerbaijan next year.

The concerns of developing countries are far from being met. On the one hand, the concerns of many developing countries have not been heeded. "Reducing the dependence of energy systems on fossil fuels" is not a priority for developing countries and will impose additional economic burdens on developing countries. African countries cannot afford the high economic costs of a rapid energy transition. The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) said the text of the agreement adopted by the conference was not strong enough and that what it really needed was "larger, faster-shifting climate action and support". On the other hand, financial commitments from developed countries have not yet been implemented. Developing countries believe that developed countries have not made sufficient climate finance commitments, and that the funds that have been pledged are slow to be met.

3. China will continue to be a doer on global climate governance

As one of the first parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, China has always been an active participant in global governance to address climate change. In 2022, China's carbon dioxide emission intensity decreased by more than 51% compared with 2005, and the proportion of non-fossil energy installed capacity increased to 50.9%. China has contributed wisdom and strength to global climate governance, supplying 50% of the world's wind power and 80% of photovoltaic equipment, and arranging more than 1.2 billion yuan of special funds for South-South cooperation on climate change to support developing countries in improving their ability to cope with climate change. During the conference, China actively responded to the initiative put forward by the United Arab Emirates presidency of the conference, signed five declarations of action, including the Declaration on Climate and Health, and held intensive consultations with major countries and major groups during the negotiations, playing a key role in matchmaking and actively promoting the final consensus of the conference. In addition to the conference, China actively held a number of side events and released the "China Energy Transition Outlook 2023" report to share China's best practices in green and low-carbon transition innovation.

China is an activist in promoting global climate governance, and has taken climate change as a national strategy, incorporated it into the overall layout of ecological civilization construction and overall economic and social development, and unswervingly followed a high-quality development path that prioritizes ecology and is green and low-carbon. China will honour its commitments, promote the implementation of the Paris Agreement, promote the implementation of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, and stand ready to carry out extensive international cooperation on climate change with all parties to jointly build a community with a shared future for mankind and a clean and beautiful world.