Will COP28 be a turning point for accelerating emissions reductions as the first report card of global climate action will be released?

On November 30, officials from more than 100 countries, non-governmental organizations, oil and gas companies, and new energy companies will gather in Dubai for the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

COP28 will be the first global stocktake, including the removal of greenhouse gas emissions by sources and carbon sinks, the overall effectiveness of the Parties' Nationally Determined Contributions, and the overall progress made by Parties in the implementation of their Nationally Determined Contributions.

This is the first time that countries have "reviewed" the progress of climate change mitigation and adaptation since the signing of the Paris Agreement and the actual action to reduce emissions.

According to the technical report published by the UNCCD Secretariat, the collective efforts of the international community to date have not even been sufficient to achieve the 2-degree goal.The window for the 1.5-degree target is shrinking rapidly。

According to the United Nations Environment and Energy Agency's latest Emissions Gap Report, the global average temperature is likely to rise by 2.5-2.9 degrees above pre-industrial levels under the current trajectory. The temperature control target agreed by various countries is less than 2 degrees, preferably no more than 1.5 degrees.

Against this backdrop, both COP28 presidents and environmentalists have high hopes that COP28 will be a turning point in reversing global climate action.

The United Arab Emirates, the rotating host country, estimates that at least 70,000 people will attend Dubai, making COP28 the most attended event in history. Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Catholic Queen Francis have all announced their attendance.

According to the agenda of the Convention Secretariat, COP28 has set a mandate for each party to issue a resolution or statement on the global stocktake, develop a framework for global climate adaptation goals, develop emission reduction plans around the expansion of renewable energy installations, the withdrawal of fossil fuels, etc., and determine the operational mechanism of the "loss and damage" fund.

In addition to the established agenda, US climate envoy John Kerry plans to announce a strategic framework for nuclear fusion during COP28, aiming to build international partnerships, as well as accelerate the commercialization of nuclear fusion, according to Reuters and other media outlets. Kerry called fusion an "emerging climate solution."

Global Stocktaking of the Impact on China

"In the first week of COP28 this year, there will be very intensive, intense, high-level discussions to define what kind of political will, actions or recommendations will be made for the first global stocktake at COP28, and it will be written in the final declaration or the so-called 'Dubai Agreement'. Yuan Ying, chief representative of Greenpeace China, said at a media pre-trip conference on November 16.

On 8 September this year, the UNCCD Secretariat released a technical report on the stocktake, which provides a scientific assessment of global progress in the implementation of the Paris Agreement. At COP28, delegates will negotiate the "political message" of the global stocktake, including proposals to bridge the reality gap and strengthen climate action, based on technical reports.

It is important to note that the global stocktake will take stock of the "collective efforts" of the international community, not the gaps in the actions of a particular country. All of the above procedures are carried out within the framework of international law, and the content written into the final resolution or declaration has certain legal effect. If the final conclusions include a clear timeline for emission reductions or energy transition measures, it will guide countries in setting their own NDCs.

According to the analysis of a number of international institutions, China will face international expectations and pressure on issues such as global stocktaking, fossil energy withdrawal, and "loss and damage" fund funding.

However, many analysts believe that China has made it clear that the "dual carbon" work will go at its own pace and will not be affected by too much external pressure, so the possibility of negotiating pressure being transmitted to China is very limited.

Yuan Ying pointed out that on the contrary, it is the trend of the two major bilateral geopolitical relations between China and the United States and China and the European Union, which has a great impact on China's negotiation resolutions.

"Whether it is the use of climate change as a break of the ice in China-US relations, the opening of dialogue as a constructive and cooperative point, or the cooperation between China and the EU in green industries and green energy investment, are more important factors that can affect China's attitude and willingness in the negotiation process. Yuan Ying said at the meeting.

On November 15, on the eve of the China-US summit, China and the United States respectively issued a new climate statement, the "Sunshine Country Statement on Strengthening Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis", which is regarded by the outside world as one of the important signs of the slowdown in China-US relations.

"Triple renewable energy" is the mainstream initiative, and China and India will be under pressure on the issue of "coal withdrawal".

In the months leading up to COP28, the COP28 presidency and dignitaries prepare for the core agenda items. According to Reuters, the European Union, the United States and the United Arab Emirates launched a campaign on "By 2030,Triple the global installed capacity for renewable energyThe agreement has been echoed by more than 60 countries, including Australia, Japan and Canada, as well as Nigeria, South Africa and Vietnam.

In the new U.S.-China climate statement released on November 15, China also echoed this "triple" target. In fact, the "triple target" initiative is not new, as the International Energy Agency (IEA), the intergovernmental energy agency, launched it back in May 2021. It is only now that his "bitter words" have been responded to by dignitaries from various countries.

In its 2050 Global Roadmap to Net Zero, released in May 2021, the IEA said that tripling global renewable electricity generation by 2030 is a critical path to limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees. In July this year, the COP28 president put the "triple target" on the agenda in an open letter.

Judging from the content of the new climate statement between China and the United States, China may have a high probability of joining the agreement. The draft agreement, which was seen by Reuters, also includes doubling global energy efficiency by 2030, phasing down unabated coal power without abatement facilities, and ending funding for new coal-fired power plants.

The phase-out of coal power is a commitment that the international community has long expected from China and other major coal power countries. This year is no exception.

According to Reuters, France, with the support of the United States, will propose during COP28 to "ban private financing of coal power projects". China, India or the countries that are mainly under pressure.

Due to the shortage of electricity and the lack of a new power system in place, there has been a boom in coal power approval and installation in many parts of China in recent years. According to statistics from the Energy Research Institute of Peking University, from January to November 2022, the total installed capacity of newly approved coal-fired power projects in China exceeded three times that of the whole of 2021.

However, China has expressed its position of "first establish and then break" in a number of policy documents and new climate statements between China and the United States, and the probability of being affected by this may be small.

According to Caixin, China's special envoy for climate change, Xie Zhenhua, said at a public forum in September this year that the COP26 decision was to "gradually reduce coal power without emission reduction facilities" rather than "phase out coal power", and that "the proportion of coal power in China has dropped from 72% to 56% now, and it will continue to decrease, which is our basic approach to the coal problem".

India, on the other hand, announced a plan to increase coal production a week before COP28. According to the Financial Times, India plans to triple its underground coal mining by 2028 to meet its energy needs. India's economy is in a phase of high growth, a senior official from India's coal ministry said in a statement.

The finger is also pointed at the oil and gas industry

COP28 is chaired by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company CEO Sultan Jaber, a controversial affair. But in his open letter, the chairman set out initiatives for reducing emissions in the global oil and gas sector.

In his open letter, Jaber proposed to more than halve the oil and gas industry's own operational emissions (Scope 1 and 2) and reduce methane emissions from the oil and gas industry to near zero by 2030.

Scope 1 refers to direct emissions from sources owned or controlled by the company, and Scope 2 refers to indirect emissions from purchased electricity, steam, heating and cooling.

The IEA also hopes to use COP28 to call for reform in the oil and gas industry. The IEA's Oil and Gas Industry in the Net Zero Transition, released a few days ago, said global oil and gas companies "must choose between exacerbating the climate crisis or shifting to being part of a clean energy solution."

According to the IEA, oil and gas companies currently invest only 1% of the world's clean energy investment, 60% of which comes from European private companies, and the annual global investment in oil and gas is twice as much as needed for the 1.5 target. The IEA is calling on the oil and gas industry to increase investment in clean energy and "adopt more responsible practices".

Methane emission reduction is a major emission reduction measure promoted by the international community in recent years, and the oil and gas industry is one of the main sources of methane emissions. Whether the oil and gas industry will be affected in the methane negotiations is also one of the highlights of COP28.

What about climate adaptation?

While the climate crisis is intensifying, how to adapt to the impact of extreme weather such as heavy rain, high temperatures, and floods has become a topic of concern for developing countries, especially the Pacific island countries on the front line of climate impact.

Xie Zhenhua said in the above-mentioned forum that the discussion on adaptation should no longer be an empty concept, but need to sink into specific areas such as early warning and forecasting, disaster prevention and mitigation, resilient cities, farmland water conservancy, natural ecosystems, etc., close to the national conditions of each country, and first of all, to solve the problem of people's lives and safety.

In addition to raising the profile of adaptation, developing countries are also asking for money.

Developing a framework for the Global Adaptation Goal (GGA) is one of the tasks of the Parties to COP28. In an open letter, the COP28 president indicated that this framework would include a significant increase in the scale of finance for adaptation.

In their new climate statements, China and the United States urged developed countries to at least double their adaptation finance to developing countries.

As a developed country responsible for historical greenhouse gas emissions, it pledged at the 2009 COP to provide $100 billion a year to developing countries for climate mitigation and adaptation from 2020 to 2025.

However, according to the OECD, the total amount of funds donated by developed countries in 2020-2021 did not reach $100 billion. The figure for 2021 was $89.6 billion.

There may be some variables when the talks are completed

It would be encouraging if countries reached a resolution at COP28 that would help accelerate emissions reductions. However, whether the commitment can be successfully implemented depends on the influence of many practical factors.

The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), commonly known as the "carbon tariff", and the recent EU countervailing investigation, are among the influencing factors.

Xie Zhenhua said at the forum that if protectionism continues, the price of PV modules is expected to be 20%-25% higher in 2030 than under the global scenario, which is not conducive to achieving the goal of "striving for three times the world's renewable energy by 2030 compared to 2020".

Yuan Ying mentioned that the 2024 U.S. election may also affect the implementation of the resolution.

In June 2017, after being elected president of the United States, Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the Paris Agreement. After Biden took office, he announced that the United States would return to the agreement.

A few days ago, a White House official revealed that one of the reasons why US President Joe Biden may not attend the COP28 conference is "preparing for a difficult re-election campaign in 2024".