In September, the activity of the national carbon market increased significantly, and the closing price increased by more than 10% from the previous month

As the second compliance period approaches, the national carbon market price continues to rise. On September 28, the highest price in the national carbon market reached 77 yuan / ton, once again hitting a record high, closing at 76.04 yuan / ton, up 10.54% from the last trading day of the previous month.

According to the Center for Sustainable Development of Fudan University (hereinafter referred to as the "Research Center"), the activity of the national carbon market increased sharply in September, mainly reflected in the increase in price fluctuations, which hit a new record high. Market trading continues to be hot, and the volume of transactions has doubled.

Among them, in terms of price, the average daily closing price of CEA in September was 72.55 yuan / ton, up 4.77% again on the basis of the previous month, and the closing price exceeded 75 yuan per ton for the first time; In terms of trading volume, the national carbon market continued to be hot in September, with a single month's quota trading volume exceeding 30 million tons, far exceeding the rest of this year, and more than two-thirds of the trading days traded in more than one million tons, with an average daily trading volume of 1.7521 million tons.

On August 24, the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange issued the Notice on the Online of "Carbon Emission Quota 21" and "Carbon Emission Quota 22", requiring that the national carbon emission trading system will officially launch "Carbon Emission Quota 21" and "Carbon Emission Quota 22" from August 28 to mark the year in which carbon allowances are issued, and the original name of "Carbon Emission Quota" will be adjusted to "Carbon Emission Quota 19-20".

In the research center's view, this move implies that carbon emission allowances may be set for a validity period in the future, and it may be that at a certain point in time, earlier carbon emission allowances will not be able to be traded or even automatically expire registration, indirectly encouraging emission control enterprises to actively enter the carbon market and enhance market activity. At the same time, according to the principle of price supply and demand, the closer to the current year's carbon emission allowance, the higher the price will be due to less supply.

"This measure has played a certain role in stabilizing market prices, but we still look forward to establishing a long-term mechanism for carbon market regulation, introducing non-performing entities as soon as possible, introducing a market maker system, and taking multiple measures to eliminate the triggers of short-term sharp market fluctuations." The research center said.

According to the results of the Fudan Carbon Price Index for October 2023 released by the Research Center, the national carbon allowance price index is expected to continue to rise in October. Among them, the purchase price of the national carbon emission allowance (CEA) in October 2023 is expected to be 71.63 yuan/ton, the selling price is expected to be 75.05 yuan/ton, and the median price is 73.34 yuan/ton; The buying price index was 179.08, up 1.94%; The selling price index was 169.34, up 1.16%; The median price index rose by 1.54% to 173.96.

At the same time, in October 2023, the purchase price of China's certified voluntary emission reductions (CCER) in the national carbon market is expected to be 64.34 yuan/ton, the selling price is expected to be 66.08 yuan/ton, and the median price is 65.21 yuan/ton. The buying price index was 161.74, up 7.70%; The selling price index was 158.96, up 5.15%; The median price index was 160.32-150.68, up 6.40%.

The research center pointed out that the CCER price used in the national carbon market compliance has a 95% probability of falling within the range of 64.34-66.08 yuan/ton, a sharp jump from the previous month. CCER restart is imminent, the current CCER price in each market has exceeded the 60 yuan platform, the national CCER price has been quite close to the Guangzhou market price, is expected to achieve a reversal.