COP28 warm-up|Looking for consensus in phasing out fossil fuels, can we bet on a rapid energy transition?

This is an important preparatory meeting ahead of the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28).

On October 30~31, the COP28 pre-conference was held in Abu Dhabi, which was a preparatory meeting attended by relevant ministers and negotiators before the official opening of COP28.

According to the first financial reporter, this year's pre-conference attendance reached a record high, with 70 ministers and more than 100 delegations gathered in Abu Dhabi, more than double the usual number of participants.

The meeting aims to lay the groundwork for COP28 negotiations in Dubai at the end of November, which are just four weeks away to find common ground on important issues such as phasing out fossil fuels and maintaining the 1.5°C target.

On October 27, Xia Yingxian, Director General of the Department of Climate Change of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, said at a press conference that with only one month left before COP28, China has always fully supported the host country, the United Arab Emirates, in hosting a successful COP Conference, and looks forward to working with all parties to ensure that COP28 continues and deepens the theme of "joint implementation", and takes the first global stocktake as an opportunity to send a positive signal of focusing on actions and strengthening cooperation.

Whether to phase out fossil fuels

Opinions are currently divided on whether or how to phase out fossil fuels, with some calling for an agreement to phase out coal, oil and gas, which produce greenhouse gases that are the main cause of climate change; Others insist on retaining fossil fuels.

COP28 President Dr. Sultan AlJaber also said at the pre-session: "I know that there is a lot of discussion on the inclusion of fossil fuels and renewables in the negotiating text. ”

"I need you to work together to come up with solutions that will bring about agreement, common ground and consensus among all parties." He said.

Specifically, European countries and climate-fragile countries want to agree on a package of measures at COP28 talks to reduce emissions that contribute to global warming more quickly, including a commitment to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 and phase out fossil fuels that emit carbon dioxide.

Indeed, the biggest friction is over the exact nature of the definition of "phasing out" fossil fuels and whether this will allow for the expansion of carbon capture technologies. Several successive climate summits have failed to agree on this wording. Countries have yet to agree at the UN climate talks to phase out the burning of all fossil fuels that emit carbon dioxide. Previously, a proposal at COP27 to phase out fossil fuels emitting carbon dioxide was supported by more than 80 countries, but countries rich in oil and gas resources opposed the proposal.

EU countries are preparing to push for a global agreement to phase out fossil fuels at COP28, according to the EU's previous draft negotiating position, and "the transition to a climate-neutral economy will require a global phase-out of untreated fossil fuels and peak their consumption in the short term." ”

"Untreated" fossil fuels are those that are burned without the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. The new vocabulary that has recently emerged among negotiators represents a new focus in the ongoing negotiations, which is that some fossil fuel-dependent economies want to focus on developing CCS technologies rather than reducing their use.

Put simply, this means focusing on the "phase-out of fossil fuel emissions" rather than the "phase-out of fossil fuels" per se.

Spanish Energy Minister Teresa Ribera, who is attending the meeting in Abu Dhabi, said that the pre-meeting negotiations have not yet made any breakthroughs, but should help countries understand each other's positions, and as a first step towards finding a compromise, "we have not seen much progress ... But it's very important that this is the first time that we explain in detail why our position is the way it is and what our priorities are. ”

Recognizing that "there is so much going on at this moment," Jaber said, "now more than ever, we need to come together on climate and send a clear message of hope, solidarity, stability and prosperity." We need to show that the international community can keep the 1.5°C target within achievable limits. ”

Xia Yingxian said that he would pragmatically promote a just green transition. To address climate change, we should fully take into account the national conditions and capabilities of all countries under the framework of sustainable development, and promote a green and just transition. Empty slogans, detached from reality and "one-size-fits-all" may seem ambitious, but in fact they undermine the multilateral process on climate change. COP28 should promote effective coordination between climate change and poverty eradication, energy security, job creation, economic development and other needs, and pragmatically promote the global transition to a green, low-carbon and climate-resilient society.

"Betping" on a rapid energy transition?

While calling for the phase-out of fossil fuels, various international bodies are also giving roadmaps and possibilities.

Yang Fuqiang, a senior adviser at the Climate Change and Energy Transition Program (CCETP) at the Energy Research Institute of Peking University, told CBN that if everyone breaks down barriers and further promotes technologies to deal with climate change, we will be able to meet better carbon reduction results. "It's about renewable energy, it's about buildings, it's about industry, and all of these areas require a lot of new technologies, green technologies." He added.

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and others released a joint report during the pre-COP session, saying that tripling renewable energy generation and doubling energy efficiency by 2030 is a key step towards 1.5°C.

The report explains how to increase global renewable energy generation capacity to at least 11,000 gigawatts, while doubling average annual energy efficiency over the target period.

"We need concerted action to triple our renewable energy generation capacity by 2030," said IRENA Director-General Carmela. This includes urgently addressing the systemic barriers that have been entrenched in infrastructure, policy, and institutional capacity in the fossil fuel era. ”

The report divides the key drivers into five sections, including, first, infrastructure and system operations, which involve power grids, energy storage, terminal electrification, sector coupling and infrastructure planning, and demand-side management; second, policy and regulation, which includes improving energy efficiency, market incentives and fiscal policies, designing and regulating electricity markets, simplifying permitting, reducing negative impacts, and maximizing social and environmental benefits; third, supply chains, skills and capacity, which includes building resilient supply chains, education, training and capacity building; fourth, expanding public and private financing and; Fifth, strengthen international cooperation.

However, a large number of oil and gas companies are warning about the risks of moving away from fossil fuels too quickly. OPEC has also issued a statement that over the past few decades, it has often been said that the supply of fossil fuels has peaked, and that there have been recent calls for demand to peak, but that neither scenario has materialized, and that such forecasts today often echo those who have stopped investing in new oil and gas projects.

OPEC says this does not take into account the continued technological advances made by the oil and gas industry in reducing emissions, nor does it recognize the critical importance of fossil fuels, which still account for more than 80% of the global energy mix.

OPEC further notes that the fact that many net-zero technologies are still immature or even experimental and theoretical.