The cement industry has achieved carbon peak, and the proportion of traditional infrastructure investment such as real estate has decreased significantly, and the pull on the cement industry has gradually weakened

"The cement industry has achieved carbon peak, but carbon peak is not the ultimate goal of industry development, but a new starting point for industry development. At the 2023 Building Materials Industry Conference held recently, Sun Xingshou, chief economist of the China Building Materials Federation, pointed out that the cement industry should recognize the changes in the situation, adhere to scientific and technological innovation as the starting point, continuously promote carbon emission reduction, and actively plan carbon neutrality and new development.

So, what are the signs of carbon peak in the cement industry, why can the cement industry achieve carbon peak in advance, and how will the cement industry develop in the future?

Judgment:

Analysis of multiple data shows that the cement industry has achieved carbon peak ahead of schedule

"It has become a reality for the cement industry to achieve carbon peak ahead of schedule, and the building materials industry has fully achieved carbon peak, and the era of carbon neutrality is coming. Yan Xiaofeng, president of the China Building Materials Federation, said that the conclusion that the cement industry has achieved carbon peak ahead of schedule is based on the scientific judgment of the development trend of the cement industry.

In terms of output, in 2014, China's cement output reached a historical peak of 2.49 billion tons, and the output of cement clinker that year was 1.42 billion tons. In 2020, China's cement clinker output reached a historical peak of 1.58 billion tons, and the cement output that year was 2.38 billion tons.

From the perspective of carbon emissions, since 2020, after reaching a peak of 1.23 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions in China's cement industry, it has shown a downward trend for two consecutive years in 2021 and 2022, with a cumulative decline of 13.9%, and is expected to continue to decline in 2023.

Based on relevant data, Sun Xingshou judged that the carbon emissions of the cement industry may fluctuate in the future, but the carbon peak has been achieved.

Cause:

The demand for cement products has remained stable and declining, driving the cement industry to reduce carbon emissions and improve quality

In fact, the cement industry is closely related to factors such as the macro environment, technological development and market changes.

First of all, the demand for cement products has remained stable and declining, which continues to drive the cement industry to reduce carbon emissions and improve quality.

According to Sun Xingshou, since the new era, China's economic structure has accelerated adjustment, and the role of consumption in stimulating China's economy has exceeded investment, and the investment rate has dropped from 47% at the peak to basically stable at around 43%.

In recent years, the adjustment of the real estate industry has become more obvious. In 2022, the investment completed by real estate developers fell by 13.2%, and in 2023, it is expected to continue to decline by more than 9.0%. The proportion of traditional infrastructure in fixed asset investment has decreased significantly, and the pull on the cement industry has gradually weakened.

Since 2021, China's cement production has declined for three consecutive years, and in 2023, it is expected to decrease by 15% compared with 2020.

"Referring to the development experience of major economies in the world such as Europe and the United States, with the adjustment of China's economic structure, the proportion of investment rate will further fall, the demand for cement products will gradually decline, superimposed on the refinement of cement products, reduction and utilization of other factors, it is expected that by 2030, China's cement demand will fall to less than 1.8 billion tons. The total production of cement products has decreased, and the pursuit of effective quality improvement has led to an irreversible downward trend in carbon emissions in the cement industry. Sun Xingshou analyzed.

At the same time, with the rapid development of energy-saving and carbon-reduction technologies, the carbon reduction level of the cement industry has been significantly improved.

It is reported that around the requirements of the "double carbon" goal, in 2022, the China Building Materials Federation organized a systematic combing of the applicable technologies and cutting-edge technology systems of the cement industry, and compiled the "Technical Guidelines for Carbon Emission Reduction in the Cement Industry" (hereinafter referred to as the "Guidelines"). According to the guide, the rapid development of energy-saving and carbon-reduction processes, technologies and equipment such as large-scale substitution technology of raw fuels in the cement industry, oxy-fuel combustion in cement kilns, and complete sets of low-energy cement grinding technology and equipment has accelerated the improvement of the energy efficiency level of the cement industry. Cement companies have taken energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformation and upgrading as the primary task of production and operation management.

Sun Xingshou pointed out that at present, there are domestic production enterprises to achieve cement clinker per unit product energy consumption to 50kgce/t (kgce is a unit to measure the energy consumption of a piece of equipment, Kgce is equal to the energy of 1 kg of standard coal, t means that the mass of the input combustion is in tons) below, cement grinding comprehensive energy consumption can be reduced to 20 kilowatt hours per ton. As of the first half of 2023, the comprehensive energy consumption per unit product of cement clinker will decrease by 3% compared with 2020, and the proportion of cement clinker production capacity that meets or exceeds the energy efficiency benchmark value will reach 13%, an increase of more than 10 percentage points over 2020.

In order to further explore the carbon reduction potential of the cement industry, since 2021, the China Building Materials Federation has continuously organized and carried out scientific and technological research around the major processes, technologies, equipment, products and the construction of "60" demonstration factories in the building materials industry, and the key technologies such as green hydrogen calcined cement clinker, carbon dioxide conversion and utilization of cement kiln flue gas, and the construction of "zero fossil" energy demonstration plants have made significant progress, which will also help further support carbon emission reduction in the cement industry.

In addition, the development and application of low-carbon cement products, as well as the refinement and reduction application of cement clinker under the peak demand of building carbon, will also continue to promote carbon emission reduction in the cement industry.

Develop:

The cement industry should continue to promote carbon emission reduction and reshape the industry's positioning

"China's cement industry carbon emissions account for about 83% of the building materials industry carbon emissions, 10% of the country's total carbon emissions, 3% of the world's total carbon emissions, carbon emission reduction will become a long-term task of the cement industry, the cement industry carbon emission reduction development direction has been irreversible. Sun Xingshou told this reporter.

According to reports, at present, the macro environment with "double carbon" as the core has been improved, and continuing to guide the carbon reduction transformation of the cement industry has become an important task in the next step.

In October 2021, the "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Completely, Accurately and Comprehensively Implementing the New Development Concept and Doing a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality" and the State Council's "Action Plan for Carbon Peaking Before 2030" were issued one after another, completing the overall deployment of China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality work from the top-level design. With this as a sign, the "Building Materials Industry Carbon Peak Implementation Plan", "Energy Carbon Peak Implementation Plan" and other fields, regional carbon emission reduction planning guidance documents have been introduced, "High Energy-consuming Industry Key Areas of Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation and Upgrading Implementation Guide", "Building Materials Industry Steady Growth Plan" and other specific measures have been implemented, the cement industry national carbon emission trading market construction, the full implementation of the cement industry ultra-low emission transformation and other work to speed up.

It is worth noting that the "Opinions on Promoting the Gradual Shift from Dual Control of Energy Consumption to Dual Control of Carbon Emissions" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions") was recently released. As a major system for the comprehensive green and low-carbon transformation of China's economy and society, the "Opinions" gradually shift from dual control of energy consumption to dual control and adjustment of carbon emissions, indicating that the macro environment for systematically and systematically promoting the green and low-carbon transformation and development of the building materials industry has been established.

Sun Xingshou believes that the cement industry should recognize the changes in the situation, adhere to scientific and technological innovation as the starting point, continuously promote carbon emission reduction, actively plan carbon neutrality, layout new development, reshape industry positioning and value shaping, and actively promote the formation of a modern building materials industry system from a higher level and more systematically, so as to be able to respond to this overall systemic change more fully, safely and in a more timely manner.