UN: Without accelerating emissions reductions, there is only a 14% chance of achieving the 1.5°C target

In line with current commitments under the Paris Agreement, the world is on track to warm by 2.5-2.9°C above pre-industrial levels this century.

Even in the most optimistic scenario, the probability of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C within this century is only 14% under current policy commitments.

On the evening of November 20, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released the 2023 Emissions Gap Report (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"), pointing out the above latest situation.

In 2015, nearly 200 countries around the world signed the Paris Agreement, agreeing to limit the average temperature rise to less than 2°C above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels within this century, preferably no more than 1.5°C, which is known as the "1.5°C target".

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C can reduce human exposure to heat waves and coastal floods, reduce the risk of extreme drought and water scarcity, and reduce food production, and is conducive to ecosystem stability and biodiversity loss.

According to the report, global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 1.2% in the past year to 57.4 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, a new record high.

According to the report, if policymakers do not take "transformative climate action" now or in the future, there is a high probability that the world (66%) will warm by 2.5-3°C this century.

According to the current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted to the United Nations and the status of implementation, global warming will be limited to 3°C above pre-industrial levels within this century.

If countries fully implement the work required for their unconditional NDCs, the world will be on track to limit temperature rise to 2.9°C, and if conditions are fully implemented, the global average temperature will be kept below 2.5°C.

Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) refer to the targets and action plans for mitigating and responding to climate change independently determined by each country according to its own economic, social and environmental conditions.

Under current policies, it is also possible to limit global temperature rise to 2°C, provided that all conditional NDCs and net-zero commitments are met. But the report finds that so far, no G20 country has actually reduced emissions at a pace consistent with its net-zero targets. The G20 countries account for about 85% of the world's GDP.

The report notes that in order to meet the Paris Agreement's 2°C target, the world needs to reduce emissions by 28% by 2030. With this reduction, there is a 42% chance that the world will meet the 1.5°C target.

At the current pace of emission reduction, global greenhouse gas emissions will increase by 3% by 2030 compared to 2015.

"Unprecedented climate change mitigation action over the decade is the only way to keep global warming below 1.5°C possible. The United Nations Environment Programme said in a press release.

The report calls on all countries to transition their economies to low-carbon development, with a focus on the energy transition.

According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the extraction of fossil fuels has far exceeded the "carbon budget". As of 2018, the emissions of coal, oil and gas under construction or already under construction globally, plus planned coal mines and oil fields, are more than 3.5 times what is needed to limit the temperature of 1.5°C.

According to the World Resources Institute, a think tank, energy-related carbon emissions account for more than 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Earlier this month, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and Sweden's Stockholm Environment Institute and other institutions released the 2023 Production Gap Report, which specifically criticizes governments for not aligning their plans for fossil fuel production with climate targets.

"Most of the world's 20 major fossil fuel producing countries have made net-zero commitments, but most continue to promote, subsidize, support and plan to scale up fossil fuel production. The UN Programme said earlier this month.

The report also recommends that as low- and middle-income countries account for more than two-thirds of the world's carbon emissions, high-income, high-emitting countries need to provide financial and technical support to developing countries. At the same time, low- and middle-income countries need to meet their development needs with low-emission growth.

According to previous estimates by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the average global temperature has risen by about 1.1°C in the decade from 2011 to 2020 compared with pre-industrial levels due to human activities.