"Green Europe": Time changes, ambition is here

The EU has always considered itself to be at the forefront of the world in tackling the urgent challenge of global climate change, launching an ambitious "Green Europe" plan. However, this effort is currently facing headwinds. Conflicts of interest, political challenges and the upcoming European Parliament elections are testing the EU's resolve and ability to tackle climate change.

The task of carbon neutrality is daunting

In early February, the European Commission released its 2040 climate targets, pledging to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to 1990 levels. This will ensure that Europe further fulfills its commitments under the European Green Deal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 as planned. As a result, the climate target is seen as a reaffirmation of the EU's resolve to tackle climate change.

The EU has always placed carbon neutrality at the heart of the European Green Deal. The agreement is legally binding in Europe and covers a wide range of sectors, including clean energy, sustainable transport, agricultural reform, biodiversity conservation and the circular economy. In line with the agreement, the EU has proposed a series of supporting measures, such as the "Farm to Fork" strategy, the "Sustainable European Investment Plan", and the European Climate Law. Based on the 2050 carbon neutrality target, the European Commission launched the "Fit for 55" package in 2021, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030, with a detailed list of implementation measures. Together, these plans and initiatives form the EU's comprehensive strategy to combat climate change and promote green growth.

A "green Europe" has also been a major policy objective of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. "The EU wants to be a pioneer in the development of a climate-friendly economic model, and the European Green Deal will be the new development strategy to guide the European economy," von der Leyen said. ”

But Europe's environmental scholars are uncertain about whether the EU will be able to meet its ambitions. The EU's Scientific Advisory Committee on Climate Change is made up of 15 top climate experts who provide policy advice to the EU. In January, the commission noted in its assessment of the current EU green plan that "the implementation of the 'Fit for 55' package now depends largely on the actions of individual EU countries." With only six years left until 2030, the Commission urgently calls on governments to effectively strengthen and implement national energy and climate plans to ensure that by 2030 the EU's greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by 55% or more compared to 1990 levels".

Earlier this year, the European Commission said in a similar assessment that the pace of emissions reductions in Europe still needs to accelerate in order to meet its 2030 climate goals, and that it will need to nearly triple its average annual emissions reduction over the past decade. The report notes that the pace of decarbonisation in the building and transport sectors remains slow, or even in the opposite direction, requiring the largest reductions in emissions. At the same time, action in the land use and forestry sector is crucial. Emissions reductions in agriculture are achievable over the past 30 years, but there has been a lack of substantial progress in recent years, and European agriculture needs to be transformed further.

The peasants were not satisfied

In fact, it is not easy for European agriculture to reduce emissions. Since the beginning of this year, agricultural practitioners in 12 EU countries have held itdemonstrateparade。 Farmers from all over Europe drove tractors and trucks to the big cities, blocked traffic and held eventsassemblyto express their dissatisfaction with the EU's green program.

In France, farmers are unhappy with green rules, tax burdens, and unfair competition from abroad. The head of the National Trade Union Confederation of French Agricultural Producers said that the current situation is that policies such as green rules have undermined farmers' expectations, and the competitiveness of European agriculture has significantly weakened. The French government has made concessions to some of the farmers' demands, including abandoning plans to phase out subsidies for agricultural diesel and providing an additional 230 million euros in aid to wine producers.

Farmers in the NetherlandsprotestThe main focus is on regulations to reduce nitrogen emissions. The Netherlands is one of the world's largest exporters of agricultural products, and half of the country's nitrogen emissions are generated by agriculture. The government's proposed measures to reduce emissions include buyouts and closures of some livestock farms, making farmers feel unfairly treated. Previously, the Dutch peasantsprotestThe event led to the formation of the right-wing Farmers-Citizens Movement, which won the provincial elections in 2023 and later became the party with the most seats in the Dutch Senate.

Farmers in Germany have expressed dissatisfaction with the government's plan to phase out fuel subsidies. On average, these subsidies save up to 3,000 euros per farmer per year. German farmers argue that if they want to support green, non-GMO agriculture, they need to provide subsidies, or at least price the food they produce, fairly.

Why are farmers so unhappy with the EU's green plans? The EU assessment and the report of the European Scientific Advisory Committee on Climate Change make a similar point: if Europe is to achieve carbon neutrality, lifestyle changes are inevitable. Many experts say that low carbon means a European dietpracticeHabits need to be transformed. Farm animals are still the main source of methane emissions in the EU, and methane is the second largest driver of global warming, so reducing the demand for meat and dairy products can directly reduce emissions.

The European Union, as well as European governments, have taken various steps to promote greater plant-based dietary choices. Some environmental groups are suggesting that in the future, emissions labels be added to meat packaging, just like the nutrition or calorie content. Some environmentalists have suggested that prices should be used to change the consumption of European residents, for example, artificial meat sausages are cheaper than real meat due to lower carbon emissions in the production process. But for farmers, this shift means an agricultural revolution and their incomes will be severely affected. In addition, European farmers have been forced to drastically reduce the use of unenvironmentally friendly nitrogen fertilizers, so agricultural planting methods need to change to keep crop yields stable, which has led to a significant increase in production costs.

Faced with a succession of peasantsprotestThe Commission can only compromise first. The European Commission had mentioned in an early draft of the 2040 climate target proposal that European agriculture needed to reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions by 30%, and called for a reduction in the consumption of meat or dairy products, as well as a reduction in fossil fuel subsidies. In the final release, however, these were removed, leaving behind a no-nonsense discourse about the need for agriculture for European food security and a call for European agriculture to make a positive contribution to reducing emissions.

The atmosphere of the election has changed

The Commission's compromise is not just about dealing with the current farmersprotest, also to take into account the upcoming European Parliament elections this year. The current MEPs were launched by the "environmental girl" Greta Thunberg "Youthparade"At its climax, the climate of public opinion pushed climate change into the political mainstream, and even pushed the Greens to grow across the continent. Under pressure from public opinion to deal with global warming, von der Leyen launched the European Green Deal after taking office, declaring it to be the EU's "moon landing moment".

However, on February 19, von der Leyen admitted in her speech that the situation has changed a lot since she first entered the Bremont building, the headquarters of the European Commission, and that "the world today is completely different from 2019". The Greens' support in the polls has declined. Europeans are now more worried about economic and geopolitical instability, migration, rising cost of living, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict than about climate change.

Von der Leyen's European People's Party, a group in the European Parliament, is also the strongest advocate of a moratorium on environmental legislation. The European People's Party, the largest political group in the European Parliament, has expressed strong dissatisfaction with the EU's proposed plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040. EPP parliamentarians have questioned why the European Commission is at the momentprotestThis goal is proposed at a time of high activity and the upcoming elections in the European Union. They believe that this goal could exacerbate farmers' problemsprotestand is exploited by far-right parties to have a devastating impact on business and rural communities. Although EU climate law requires the European Commission to propose a 2040 climate target within six months of the completion of the UN climate action assessment, members of the party still question the need for the target and call for a more realistic and pro-business green agenda.

At the same time, the party caucus from the right will naturally not give up the opportunity to use this contradiction to win over voters before the election. Anders Wistisen, a Danish member of the European Parliament from the right-wing group Identity and Democracy, said directly at the European Parliament a few days ago, "Haven't you realised it? On the streets, from Paris to Berlin, from Rome to Warsaw, peasants, workers, pensioners are thereprotestSuch grotesque climate policies. Identity and Democracy has even put forward a proposal that has no practical effect to abolish the European Green Deal.

On 19 February, von der Leyen announced that she wanted to run for a second term as president of the European Commission, but many European parliamentarians saw some clues in her speech that day – if she remains president of the Commission, her second term will focus on competitiveness and defence, which may mean more compromises in Europe's green plans.