Dialogue with Chen Gang, chairman of Aiko Co., Ltd., does BC battery have a future?
Interface News Reporter | Ma Yueran
Interface News Editor | Zhang Hui
"In the next 5-8 years, it is unlikely that new technologies with comprehensive advantages will emerge to quickly replace crystalline silicon cells." A few days ago, Chen Gang, chairman of Aiko Co., Ltd. (600732.SH), said in an interview with reporters such as Jiemian News.
He believes that technologies such as tandem cells are still in the theoretical model stage of mass production and have not yet matured, and at this stage, the ultimate technology of monocrystalline silicon cells, BC, will be the best choice. "Aiko's ABC route is enough for the company to maintain a technological lead for 5-8 years." He noted.
In late September, LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH) held a semi-annual results meetingAssertions about battery technology, disturbing the photovoltaic industry. As the industry leader, LONGi Green Energy is firmly optimistic about BC batteries, which will fully replace TOPCon in the future.
This also pushed Aiko shares into the public eye. Because at present, the only companies in the industry that have really put BC technology on mass production are LONGi and Aixu.
Before LONGi spoke out, Aiko's technology choice had made it known as a "niche player" in the industry. Aiko started with batteries and has been among the top three in global cell shipments for many years. In 2021, due to the epidemic and rising polysilicon prices, Aiko Co., Ltd. performed poorly.
In the past two years, under the background of the return to rationality of industrial chain prices and rapid growth in demand, Aiko's performance has continued to improve, and it has advanced to downstream modules, and its main ABC technology and products have attracted more and more people's attention.
Recently, Chen Gang, chairman of Aiko Co., Ltd., accepted a rare interview with Jiemian News and other media, and for the first time introduced his views on photovoltaic technology, the development prospects of BC cells, and the future planning of Aiko Co., Ltd.
Chen Gang was born in 1968, and after graduating from the former Southern Metallurgical Institute in 1991, he has been engaged in the manufacturing industry with aluminum profiles as the core. In 2009, 41-year-old Chen Gang invested in the establishment of Guangdong Aiko, the predecessor of Aiko Co., Ltd., and began to engage in the research and development and manufacturing of photovoltaic cells.
In 2019, Aiko Co., Ltd. was listed on the main board through ST Xinmei, and Chen Gang served as chairman and general manager. The company launched ABC cells in 2021 and will achieve mass production and shipment of ABC modules in 2023.
BC has an advantage over any current technology
Q: What is the current stage of development of China's photovoltaic industry, and what are the pain points and difficulties that need to be solved?
Chen Gang:China's photovoltaic industry has gone through a complete process from starting to following, and then to leading, and now it has entered the situation of a leader.
At present, the photovoltaic industry still presents the characteristics of emerging industries. First, the production capacity of each link of the industrial chain is inconsistent, which leads to the transfer of industrial value; second, the industrial form is immature, and the industrial business model is adjusted at any time. On the whole, the current photovoltaic industry is still relatively healthy, and it is completely based on market-oriented industrial development.
The difficulty faced by the industry is that photovoltaic is still an emerging industry, and only 20% of the sun's energy can be turned into electricity, which means that there is still a lot of room for technological upgrading in the future.
At present, it is the era of competition in intellectual property, and how to build one's own ability in the era of intellectual property is the pain point of the industry. During this period, the industry is still in the labor pain period, and after the labor pain period, the entire Chinese photovoltaic industry will enter a more advanced format.
Q: For the development of next-generation technology, why did Aiko choose ABC technology?？
Chen Gang:When the dividends of PERC technology are gradually disappearing, Aiko is considering what will become the ultimate technology in the era of N-type technology? We can see that the ABC back contact technology can achieve the Shockley-Quaiser limit model (i.e., the theoretical limit model of photoelectric conversion efficiency), that is, the ultimate technology of 29.4% monocrystalline silicon.
Aiko has mastered some of the core technologies of TOPCon and HJT and realized the products very early. However, after considering and comparing, it is still believed that it is necessary to return to the principle and original intention, that is, to develop the ultimate technology that belongs to this era, that is, ABC technology.
This is not Aiko's bet, just a normal choice. Aiko focused on the development of back contact technology earlier, occupied a more favorable technical route earlier, and formed relevant patents and mass production experience.
From the perspective of the first principle of photovoltaics, i.e. the cost of electricity, there is no doubt that BC has an advantage over any current technology.
Q: How do you view the efficiency ceiling of other N-type technologies such as TOPCon, and what is Aiko's future plan for technology upgrading and iteration?
Chen Gang:At present, single-sided passivation TOPCon is approaching the technical limit. If TOPCon technology wants to be improved in the future, it can only be passivated on both sides.
The theoretical limit efficiency of ABC technology is 29.4%, and the average mass production efficiency of cells is about 26.5%. It is possible to deliver module wattage of 610 W for a 72-square-meter version of 182 sizes, or about 450-455 W for a 54-size 2 square meter module, and then add 10-20W to this rate every year thereafter.
In terms of conversion efficiency, Aiko's goal in the next step is to achieve about 27%-27.5%. BC modules have great advantages in terms of CTM and circuit design, and the limit of mass production of ABC cells is about 28%.
In terms of efficiency improvement, in addition to the continuous progress of cell technology and technology, there is still a lot of room for improvement in upstream silicon wafers and downstream modules. There is a chance that the efficiency of ABC modules will increase by another 1%-2%, and the wattage may reach 650 W. So we still have a lot of room to grow.
Q: Are BC batteries and TOPCon a replacement or complementary relationship?
Chen Gang:BC and TOPCon are two different technology platforms, one is the technology platform for back contact and the other is the technology platform for passivation. In the P-type era, multi-crystalline, monocrystalline, PERC, and the N-type era are the same, there is a basic technology, and if you upgrade it further, it must be BC technology. A better technology is introduced and matured, and the weaker technology with relative inefficiency is gradually withdrawn from the technology stage.
The residential market is the market that maximizes value
Q: What is the latest progress of Aiko ABC battery, and what changes will this product bring to the industry in the future?
Chen Gang:Aiko's ABC technology has formed a complete product line, targeting different customers, technologies and versions in different scenarios to create greater value. At present, the company has formed three complete product lines. At the end of the year or the first quarter of next year, Aiko will launch a new product line, namely lightweight components.
Although the photovoltaic industry always says "volume", from the previous industry characteristics, it is still very happy. Compared with mobile phones and other industries, photovoltaic is still in a relatively extensive and lack of differentiation period. Therefore, Aiko subdivides customer needs and shares value with customers through value creation, which is a greater change we hope to bring to the industry.
It is hoped that this change can return the industry to its essence, return to the level of value creators, that is, owners, reduce intermediate links, and change the business model of the industry.
Q: What is the biggest advantage of Aiko shares?
Chen Gang:The ultimate technology for monocrystalline silicon cells, BC, has emerged in the industry. Aiko has indeed gone very early and fast in terms of R&D, mass production, and industrial chain generation.
Personally, I believe that in the next 5-8 years, it is unlikely that there will be a new and very comprehensive technology that can quickly replace crystalline silicon cells. For example, theoretical models such as tandem cells are still in mass production and are not yet mature. So, the current ABC technology roadmap is enough to keep us ahead in 5-8 years.
Q: What is the pace of Aiko ABC's shipment planning and capacity expansion?
Chen Gang:ABC cells are on track and module progress is a month or two slower than expected, and shipments for the whole of this year may be revised down by 2-3 GW as a result, but this is just a matter of pace, and nothing else has changed.
In terms of production capacity, by the end of this year, 10 GW in Zhuhai will be fully put into use, and 15 GW in Yiwu will strive to be put into operation.
The Zhuhai base focuses on the distributed market, and the Yiwu base meets the ground market. The construction of the Jinan base will be considered, and the base will also consider the distributed market, after all, the value brought by the distributed market is larger.
Q: What is the domestic and foreign orders of Aiko ABC series products, and how to determine the value proposition of different product lines in different scenarios?
Chen Gang:The first step of Aiko's ABC is to focus on the market that maximizes value, that is, the residential market. The residential market is not very sensitive to price, and pays more attention to aesthetics, safety, and power generation.
The residential market needs to establish channels, business models and brands, and Aiko defines this part as a market that generates profits. Through the previous accumulation, Aiko has received a good response in the residential market. At present, the module price in the residential market is about 25-27 euro cents (about 1.9-2.1 yuan) per watt.
In the industrial and commercial market, customers are more concerned about cost performance. Aiko first lays out the industrial and commercial markets in Europe, Japan, South Korea and China, so that the value is focused on the terminal owners and suppliers and service providers who provide overall solutions.
There is not much difference in the core essence of overseas and domestic markets, both are based on value. The cost of the system side in the overseas high-end market is relatively high, so the value brought by the wattage gain is greater. The same is true in the domestic market, where the value of increased power generation determines the market positioning and value sharing of the product.
In terms of the ground-mounted market, Aiko will give priority to providing modules with a bifaciality rate of more than 65%, which will increase the comprehensive power generation by about 30 watts compared with other N-type technology routes, and share the value dividend based on the gain of this part of the power.
In terms of ground-mounted power stations, there are two main lines, namely electricity prices and scenarios. Where the higher the electricity price, the greater the income brought by the increase in power generation of Aiko products, and the higher the market dividend. The other is the scene, the seascape, the eastern coastal area or the area where the land resources are more expensive, and its value combined with the power generation brings more efficiency and more value.
Q: There are doubts in the market that BC technology is more suitable for the distributed market because of its low bifaciality and no advantages in scenarios such as ground power stations. What do you think?
Chen Gang:Each company's research depth and investment in the BC field is different, and the understanding of BC products will be different. Aiko first makes single-sided products, which is based on the consideration of the realizability of new technologies and is easy to cut into the distributed market.
But there is no problem at all for BC to do double-sided. Although the bifaciality rate of Aiko's ABC products in the early stage was only 30%-40%, the bifaciality rate of Yiwu's upcoming production capacity will be about 65%.
With the deepening and refinement of the research, ABC products may reach a bifaciality rate of more than 70%, and the comprehensive power generation of the front and back sides will increase by 30 W.
BC products are not born with a low bifaciality, and the current bifaciality value is normal. Bifaciality improvement is a process of excellence, which is achieved step by step through time and R&D investment.
Q: What is the progress of Aiko's silver-free technology?
Chen Gang:Aiko is currently the only company in China that can mass-produce silver-free technology on a large scale and at low cost, and all products are currently using silver-free technology, which is very mature.
Aiko has no silver-related process costs, including electricity costs, equipment depreciation, etc., which are lower than the current silver paste grid printing process.
In September, ABC's material cost was basically the same as that of TOPCON, and in the future, in addition to improving conversion efficiency, the company will also focus on the operational efficiency of the entire production, including various management improvements, cost reduction, etc.
In order to survive, enterprises must enter the field of global top-level competition
Q: What is the most important reason why China's photovoltaic can go global, and what are the difficulties faced by photovoltaic enterprises going overseas?
Chen Gang:China's PV is a global leader in technology, quality, and cost. Aiko divides exports into two aspects, namely product export and manufacturing to the sea.
In terms of exports, with the increasing number of overseas module bases, battery exports are increasing year by year, and it is expected that Aiko's battery exports will increase by 30-40% year-on-year this year. In terms of modules, Aiko did not go deep into the module link in the past, which is a new highlight of the company and is gradually advancing.
In order to survive, enterprises must enter the global top competitive field. Whether an enterprise can adapt to globalization is the fundamental influencing factor for whether an enterprise has strong competitiveness.
For going overseas, Aiko will consider several factors: First, the global market distribution and competitiveness distribution. Where are the high-value markets, where are the advantages of production competitiveness and R&D.
The second is to consider global geopolitical factors. Geopolitical issues are becoming more and more prominent, and long-term and comprehensive consideration of overseas arrangements is needed.
Generally speaking, Aiko divides the overseas market into three regions, namely Europe, the United States and other regions. In the United States, it is considering how to achieve commercial success in the current geopolitical and economic situation, and plans to develop together with other partners; Europe is the third largest market after China and the United States, and it must be deeply cultivated to build high-end brands in the European market. Therefore, Aiko has laid out localized R&D centers and channels in the European market.
The third type of region is other regions, which mainly consider production factors, such as Southeast Asia and Latin America, which is conducive to the nearby supply market, and is conducive to increasing the share of enterprises in the global market in the context of geopolitics.
Most people think that green trade barriers are a major challenge facing the photovoltaic industry, but I personally believe that green trade barriers are actually an opportunity. When the rules are established, enterprises should think about how to play their strengths for a longer period of time, turn their weaknesses into strengths, and how to achieve business success under the same competitive barriers.
Q: What is Aiko's future overseas layout related production capacity plan?
Chen Gang:In the near future, Aiko will deploy a module factory in Europe, firstly, to cope with geopolitical competition, and secondly, to establish the height of product brand. Projects in Southeast Asia and South America are under negotiation but have not yet been confirmed.
Q: What is Aiko's long-term strategic goals?
Chen Gang:Aiko used to be a battery company, and this part of the business will not be given up in the future.
In terms of continuing to maintain the competitiveness of the battery business, Aiko's PERC cells will be upgraded to double-sided passivated TOPCon technology in the future. As our "cash cow", the battery business still needs to continue to maintain the competitiveness and life cycle of our products.
In addition, in the era of ABC technology, Aiko will give full play to its advantages as a second growth curve. Focus on the high-value market first, and then move down to the mid-value market, and there is no need to participate in the low-value market at the moment. The company's production capacity will also follow, and Aiko's battery production capacity will reach 25 GW by the end of this year.
As for the future business, after batteries and modules, it must be based on the scenario of the use of zero-carbon energy by the whole society. Based on the mode and layout of this scene, Aiko will continue to explore.
