The hard work and historic significance of the COP28 consensus: ending the beginning of the fossil fuel era

When a ray of early morning sunlight shone into the huge, empty venue at Expo City Dubai, it was no longer crowded with people that it had opened two weeks ago. Most have already left, and all that remains inside and outside the venue is yet another exhausted government delegate after an all-night of negotiations. No one has time to rest, because the final game is about to begin.

At 7 a.m. local time on December 13, the latest version of the "Global Stocktaking Text" of the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28), which has attracted global attention, was announced. The Chair announced that the closing plenary session would be held at 11 a.m. and that all the climate activists who remained in Dubai would gather for the last time.

On December 13, 2023 local time, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) reached a consensus on the first global stocktaking of the Paris Agreement.

When the time came, this time there was no further delay. Dressed in grayArabSultan Al Jaber, the president of COP28 in a traditional robe, strode up to the podium, his face covered with excitement and nervousness after not having a good rest for several days.

"I now declare that I invite you to vote on the text of the global stocktake." After a brief pause of a few seconds, he quickly said, "If there is no objection, I declare the resolution reached." The gavel fell, and applause rang out.

consensus

这是一个有点令人难以置信的场景：全球最大石油公司之一的董事长在近200个国家的代表面前，宣布了人类历史上一项重要的新consensus：“以公正、有序和公平的方式，推进能源系统向脱离所有化石能源的方向转型，在这个关键的十年加速行动，以便在2050年左右实现科学的净零排放。”

"Fossil fuels" is just a combination of two humble words that appear only once in the 11,000-word final resolution document. But sometimes, the arc of history can begin to shift because of two small words. In the hottest year on record, government representatives from nearly 200 countries ratified the global agreement for the first time, making an unequivocal commitment to "wean ourselves off fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal" – the same fossil fuels that have laid the foundation for the rapid development of human societies over the past 200 years, but which are also bringing dangerous warming to the planet.

即便在听见掌声的这一刻，许多人仍深感错愕，对这份consensus的达成感到难以置信。就在24小时之前的草案中，由于一些国家的反对，化石燃料的字眼被删除出了最终的草案，究竟发生了什么，使得东道主在短短24小时内端出这份让全球198个缔约方都能接受的《阿联酋consensus》？

Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary-General of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), took the stage after the hammer was dropped, saying: "While this climate conference has not turned the page on the fossil fuel era, this outcome is clearly the beginning of the end of fossil fuels. There has been "real progress" at the COP, but the agreement adopted is a lifeline, not a finish, for global climate action.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a subsequent statement that "fossil fuels" were finally mentioned in the outcome document after years of obstacles. He stressed that the fossil fuel era must end in a just and equitable manner.

全球盘点被认为是此次COP28的核心成果。除了最引人关注的提出“转型脱离”化石燃料的表述外，决议文件中还呼吁各缔约方采取行动，争取到2030年在全球范围内将可再生能源能力提高两倍，并将能源效率提高一倍；加快逐步淘汰未加装捕集和封存措施的煤电，逐步取消低效的化石燃料补贴，加速降低交通运输排放等措施；发达国家继续在这方面发挥带头作用等重要consensus。

并非所有人都对这份consensus感到满意。迟到的萨摩亚代表兼小岛屿国家联盟主席安妮·拉斯穆森（Anne Rasmussen）在随后的发言中表示，在小岛屿国家联盟仍在协调其对案文的回应时，决定已在他们缺席全会期间被敲定。她失望地表示，“这一进程辜负了我们”，他们无法带着这样的消息返回自己的岛屿。她发言后的掌声持续时间甚至超过了决议通过后的掌声。

无论如何，大多数国家和气候人士认为，这份《阿联酋consensus》虽有许多瑕疵，但仍是摆脱化石燃料转型之路上的一个历史性里程碑——这一发展在两年前还被认为几乎是不可能的。 但更重要的不是所有国家同意了什么，而是他们实际做了什么。如何才能确保这次在沙漠中举办的有史以来最大的COP大会，不会成为史上最大的“绿色海市蜃楼”？

Wang Yi, deputy director of China's National Climate Change Expert Committee and a researcher at the Institute of Strategic Consulting of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) that the most important outcome of the conference is to outline a framework for the gradual transition of the energy system to net-zero carbon emissions, and the biggest regret is that there is no clearer guidance for practical actions in the next decade. "The next step is to paint a clearer roadmap for the future, how to accelerate the path to reduce fossil energy consumption in the next decade, and also accelerate the development of a new energy system and power system with renewable energy as the main body." Wang Yi said.

Opening

A year ago, when COP27 decided to host the next climate conference in the United Arab Emirates, one of the world's largest oil and gas producers, many thought it was a terrible joke.

Two weeks ago, when the conference finally came to an end, the UAE proved that it was not a "bad choice". According to statistics, nearly 100,000 people registered to attend the conference, and more than 65,000 people actually participated in the event, making it the largest and largest climate conference in history.

今年的全球平均气温也是人类有记录以来最热的，但这很可能是本世纪剩余时间里最凉爽的年份之一。在大会Opening前夕，世界气象组织（WMO）的一份最新报告显示，去年大气中吸收的温室气体含量再创新纪录，人类的温室气体排放再创新高。联合国秘书长古特雷斯警告说：“人类已经打开了地狱之门。”

COP28 was held at Expo City in Dubai, where Expo 2020 was held. It feels so strange and unreal that tens of thousands of delegates ride the free subway every day in the desert of the Middle East, pass by countless refineries and petrochemical plants along the coast that emit all sorts of gases, and gather from the corner of one of the world's highest cities in terms of carbon emissions per capita to talk about climate problems in a huge theme park-like venue.

All of the venues have been carefully designed: electric fans blow in a gentle breeze from the corners, shade subtly creates a sense of shade, food trucks selling coffee, fresh juice and sandwiches are everywhere, and free dates from the host country and free pours from gilded potsArabCoffee. Oh, and there's even a stall selling ice cream.

The venue is divided into a Blue Zone, which is formally negotiated, and a much larger Green Zone, which is open to the public, and shuttle buses are required to get from one entrance to another. However, even in the Blue Zone, which is the size of New York's Central Park, it usually takes 10 minutes to walk from one building to another. Two dedicated press conference venues, one dedicated to official press conferences, were located next to the negotiation venue, while the press conference for civil society organizations was arranged between a large number of unrecognizable buildings 15 minutes' walk from the main venue.

Unlike previous years, this year's conference was already "hot" before it opened. Sultan Jaber, chairman of the conference and also an oil executive, has been criticized for facing conflicts of interest; This year's summit saw an all-time high of more than 1,400 fossil fuel lobbyists; Ahead of the meeting, it was also revealed that the UAE was trying to use the climate conference as a means of business negotiations to broker new deals between its state-owned oil and gas companies and other countries.

In response to the overwhelming skepticism, Jaber, who likes to be called Dr. Sultan by his subordinates, continued to release the UAE's ambition to have the confidence and ability to host a successful climate conference before the conference began. On key issues, he also revealed a subtle change in tone, beginning to say that "the phase-out of fossil fuels is inevitable" and betting his credibility on being able to persuade other oil-producing countries to sign a new climate deal that has never been seen before.

A week before the conference, COP28 Director General Suwadi, who was interviewed by The Paper on behalf of Jaber, said that while many in the international community have doubts about whether the UAE will be able to host the COP, he and Jaber both believe that it makes no sense to exclude those who know best about today's energy systems from the conversation about building the energy system of the future. "We can't make the energy transition without the energy industry. And [Jaber] knows the energy industry better than most and has the ability to hold it accountable, which is unique in the history of the Conference of the Parties. Suwadi said.

Jaber finally proved on the closing day that only the oil countries can convince the oil countries to sit down at the negotiating table, and thanks to his efforts, he did not finally bring down what is considered the most important global inventory since the Paris Agreement. Although the explicit and glaring phrase "phasing out fossil fuels" was removed from the final text, fossil fuels were included in the final COP decision for the first time.

On December 12, 2023 local time, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, due to serious differences in core issues, the conference officially entered the "overtime" stage.

The Paper observed at the conference that many delegates from developing countries said that, unlike many of his predecessors, Jaber did listen to them, and during the more than two weeks of the conference, he listened to a wide range of ideas from different delegates, from small islands to the largest economies, from indigenous peoples, youth representatives, women and vulnerable communities to vulnerable groups most affected by climate change.

这种“积极努力”的作风在Opening日当天即带来了好消息。

在11月30日的Opening式上，贾比尔史无前例地宣布，COP28已达成了关于“损失与损害”基金的里程碑式协议，该协议将帮助易受到气候变化影响的发展中国家。各国同意基金先由世界银行托管4年，基金将向所有发展中国家开放，并在下一届气候大会上确定基金的董事会及其他细节安排。截止到闭幕，该基金已经筹措到近8亿美元的资金。

While people were still basking in the euphoria of "early resolution," which was supposed to be one of the most pressing issues of the conference, on December 3, it was revealed that Jaber had made a statement at an online event two weeks earlier that "there is no scientific evidence to show that fossil fuels must be phased out to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels." ”

The news, which caused an uproar, forced Jaber to spend a lot of time and space at a press conference the next day, repeatedly stressing: "We are here because we believe in and respect science very much, and all the work done by this presidium is focused on science." ”

However, this debate has also inevitably pushed the focus of the conference, "phasing out fossil fuels", to the center of the negotiating stage.

gambling

On December 6, the first half of COP28 ended. The day before, after intense negotiations, the conference unveiled the conference's most talked-about element – the draft agreement for the global stocktake, the most notable of which was the description of the fossil fuel problem.

According to the second draft of the relevant resolution document released on the 5th, negotiators from various countries have put forward a variety of textual formulations on this issue, one of which is to call for "orderly and just phase-out of fossil fuels"; Another option is to call for "accelerated efforts to phase out fossil fuels that are not equipped with carbon capture and storage technologies"; The third option is to make no mention of phasing out fossil fuels.

这三个选项展现出了近200个参与谈判的国家和地区对这一重大而敏感问题的不同立场。8日开始，各方将在此基础上寻求达成艰难的consensus。

In 2021, at COP26 in Glasgow, UK, the text of the final agreement mentioned the "dirtiest" fossil fuel coal for the first time. At COP27 last year in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, more than 80 countries formed a loose coalition that tried unsuccessfully to push for a complete phase-out of all fossil fuels.

This year, more than 110 countries, including small island states and some developed countries, called for an agreement to phase out fossil fuels at the conference. Small island states are the most affected by climate change, noting that phasing out fossil fuels and investing in climate-resilient and just transitions is the most pragmatic solution to the climate crisis.

In contrast, the oil-exporting countries rejected any reference to the phase-out of fossil fuels in the text of the resolution, arguing that calls for a phase-out were politically motivated and unsupported by scientific facts. Developing countries, represented by the Group of African States, have argued that the phase-out of fossil fuels is not an impractical option in the absence of financial support, especially from the public sector in developed countries, given the real demand for energy access.

On the afternoon of the 9th, Xie Zhenhua, China's special envoy for climate change, said in response to the issue of fossil fuels that China is communicating with all parties, "Now everyone still hopes to find a solution that can reflect the greatest inclusiveness and point out the way forward for us to solve the problem." If we don't address the issue that concerns us most, the outcome of this meeting will go wrong. ”

Due to the sensitivity and complexity of the topic, Xie Zhenhua, who has participated in dozens of climate conferences, also sighed. "[I] found the most difficult conference, and that was this one."

Xie Zhenhua also revealed that he had talked to ministers of some oil and gas producing countries about the energy transition, "They told me that 80-90% of their national fiscal revenue depends on oil and gas, and if fossil energy is eliminated, how will the country survive and develop?" They have their own difficulties. ”

Xie Zhenhua continued, "Therefore, I believe that throughout the transformation process, countries should understand each other, support each other, cooperate with each other, and find the best solution to the problem, which is the most effective way out for us." ”

On the afternoon of the 11th, the long-awaited presidency released the latest draft of the General Assembly resolution document, which deleted all references calling for the "phase-out" of fossil fuels, a change that drew opposition from many delegations and climate activists. As of the evening of the 11th, small island states and many developed countries such as the United Kingdom, the European Union, the United States, Australia, Japan, Canada and Norway have publicly expressed their opposition.

It is clear that the draft needs to be significantly strengthened. At 12 a.m. on 12 December, an hour had passed the scheduled closing time of the Conference. Negotiations officially went into "extra time". COP28 Director-General Suwadi acknowledged at a press conference that there are still "serious differences" on the final text.

All day on the 12th, The Paper waited for the final negotiation results at the venue like everyone else. Bloomberg refers to Saudi ArabiaArabEnergy Minister Prince Salman visited the COP28 President's Office in the evening. At 9 p.m. that night, the President of the General Assembly announced that thorough consultations would be held with all interested parties throughout the night, and that the process was expected to continue until 3 a.m. on the 13th.

From the evening of December 12 to the early morning of December 13, members of the presidium of the conference held intensive back-to-back, one-on-one exchanges with key negotiating groups and countries in a small building in the venue, and a new draft agreement gradually surfaced through the constant diplomacy of Jaber's team among representatives with almost diametrically opposed interests.

At 7 a.m. on the 13th, the Office of the President of the General Assembly released the final text of the resolution and announced that a plenary session would be convened at 11 a.m. to vote on the new text, which used a call for the world to "transition away" from fossil fuels - still a weaker argument than many had hoped, but better than the previous one.

An interesting detail is that on the 11th, The Paper "bumped into" US presidential climate envoy John Kerry at the venue, and onlookers shouted "happy birthday" to him, and then sent "wishes" to "phase out fossil fuels". Kerry, who was celebrating his 80th birthday that day, apparently didn't have time for his birthday, and after smiling and waving to the crowd, he hurriedly hopped into the shuttle bus and drove away.

然而美国在最后consensus中起到的斡旋作用或许至关重要。作为将化石燃料写入决议反对最坚决的国家，沙特在过去30多年来对此一再阻拦。据内部人士透露，就在决议出炉的最后24小时前，贾比尔还面临沙特代表团的强烈压力，要求其淡化文本内容。

The Guardian said that shortly before the final plenary session, a seemingly serendipitous meeting took place in a VIP lounge next to the main conference hall. US climate envoy John Kerry and Chairman Jaber expressed "warm greetings" with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Salman.

A few minutes later, Jaber strode onto the stage, where representatives of more than 190 countries were waiting for him. After a brief statement, he dropped the gavel and announced the resolution, followed by applause and cheers.

"This agreement isn't perfect, but one thing is clear: the world no longer denies our harmful dependence on fossil fuels." Inger Anderson, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme, commented.

Of course, an agreement that satisfies the Saudis, the United States and the UAE will not please everyone. As the representative of Russia, Mikhail Gitarskiy, said, "We are not happy, but we all agree." ” 

On December 12, 2023 local time, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, climate activists held protests against fossil fuels during the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28).

future

在聚光灯下躲躲闪闪三十年后，化石燃料这一气候变化问题“房间里的大象”终于首次在气候大会上被写进决议文件。气候谈判所采取的“consensus方式”虽然经常进展缓慢，但一旦达成却有着极高的权威：全世界198个缔约方正式宣布，将开启终结化石燃料的时代。

如今，各国谈判代表已经离开迪拜，带着这样的consensus回到各自的国家和地区，将注意力转向下一个重要任务：如何将 COP28表达的目标转化为具体的国家行动，并确保有资金来实施这些目标。

The new resolution itself is not legally binding and cannot compel any State to take action. However, many politicians, environmentalists and business leaders gathered in Dubai hope that the conference will send a message to investors and policymakers around the world that the trend away from fossil fuels is unstoppable. Over the next two years, each country should submit a detailed formal plan on how to curb greenhouse gas emissions by 2035.

Even the strongest supporters of phasing out fossil fuels are well aware of this. Colombia's Minister of the Environment, Susana M.muhammadDenote. "Entire economies and societies depend on fossil fuels. Fossil capital is not going to disappear because of the decisions we make here. However, she added that the deal reached in Dubai sends a "strong political message that this is the way".

“现在每个投资者都应该明白，future有利可图且长期的投资是可再生能源，而投资化石燃料是一种搁浅资产。”德国气候特使詹妮弗·摩根说道。

Wang Yi believes that the transformation process of different countries is different, which is determined by different natural resource endowments, different socio-economic conditions, and different capabilities.

“作为中国来说，我们一方面要发展自己，另外一方面要更好地去帮助其他发展中国家实现碳中和。我们也要做好准备，可能在future的COP会议中，面临的压力会越来越大。中国作为最大的二氧化碳排放国，应该扮演更加重要的，更加负责任担当和引领的大国角色。”王毅说道。

Wang Yi further pointed out that several very important tasks after the conference: first, it is necessary to coordinate the short, medium and long-term goals and draw a more specific roadmap; Second, China's systemic transformation requires the joint action of all sectors and all stakeholders. The third is to vigorously enhance capacity building, especially for the training of the younger generation. "This is a decades-long or even century-long undertaking that requires us to pass on lessons learned from generation to generation to achieve our global goals." He said.

The key test now is whether developed countries can mobilize more finance for developing countries to help them achieve their energy transition. The outcome of the conference made it clear that each party should choose the appropriate path to get rid of fossil fuels according to local conditions and according to their own realities. No country is immune to the energy transition. The transition away from fossil fuels must be fair and swift, leaving no one behind.

各界分析指出，今年的大会对于气候融资和气候适应问题并未取得实质性进展，这将导致道德和实践层面的巨大问题。而且新设立的损失和损害基金仍然资金不足。除非贫穷国家获得实现绿色环保所需的资金，否则它们future的化石燃料排放将加剧气候影响，从而危及所有人。如果没有额外资金来帮助脆弱社区增强抵御富裕国家排放造成的各种极端气候灾害，无数人将遭受痛苦和死亡。

《阿联酋consensus》承认了资金的重要性，各国同意在明年于阿塞拜疆巴库举行的下一轮气候谈判中力争解决这一问题。

At the same time, some oil-producing countries have seen "room for manoeuvre" in the resolution. In an interview after the meeting, Saudi Arabia's energy minister said the agreement "leaves room for countries to choose their own way." He also insisted that the SaudisArabof oil exports will not be affected.

In response, US climate envoy John Kerry said, "Can [some countries] sell crude oil today, tomorrow, next week, next year?" "Of course." But, he added, "they will have to give up fossil fuels, just like everyone else." ”

But Kerry's rhetoric will be tested by his own government's actions. The United States is now the world's largest producer of oil and gas. The Biden administration is facing a decision on whether to expand LNG exports. In addition, the shadow of Trump's return in next year's US election has always haunted the hearts of many at this climate conference.

One thing is for sure, as Kerry puts it, "if everyone sits there and does things as usual, the transition to renewable energy is 'not going to magically happen.'"

On December 13, 2023 local time, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, at the end of the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference, Simon Steele, the head of the United Nations climate change, hugged Sultan Jaber (right), president of the COP28 summit.

迪拜创造了历史，但这是一部复杂的历史：成功与失败融为一体。《阿联酋consensus》远非一份完美的协议。现在，随着谈判代表、活动人士、科学家和化石燃料游说者回到各自的国家，我们的工作才刚刚开始。

As former U.S. Vice President Al Gore put it, "Whether this truly marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era depends on what happens next." ”