Soda ash prices rose strongly

　　Recently, due to the expansion of soda ash less than expected, the soda ash market has entered a rapid upward channel since early November, and the price has risen strongly. According to the data of Zhuochuang Information, as of December 7, the average price of the mainstream self-lifting of light alkali in China was 2,889 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 43.8% from the previous month.

　　"At present, the overall inventory level of soda ash manufacturers is not high, orders are sufficient, and some manufacturers still control orders; downstream demand is stable, and end users are mainly based on rigid demand procurement, and it is expected that the domestic soda ash market in December may be dominated by high-level finishing. Deng Qiuyu, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, said.

　　Spot is tight

　　Since November, due to the fermentation of environmental inspection news of Qinghai soda plant, the operating rate of soda ash enterprises has decreased and lasted for a long time, and the short-term burden reduction or shutdown of individual enterprise equipment has been superimposed, and the supply of soda ash market has been tight, and the inventory has declined significantly.

　　According to Longzhong information data, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash enterprises in November was 85.83%, down 2.98% month-on-month, and the output of soda ash was 2.8636 million tons, down 198,200 tons month-on-month, or 6.47%. Longzhong information analyst Li Mengjie said.

　　As of December 7, the 1.5 million tons/year soda ash plant of China Salt Qinghai Kunlun Alkali Industry Co., Ltd., the 1.4 million tons/year soda ash plant of China Salt Qinghai Development Investment Alkali Industry Co., Ltd. were in operation, and the 300,000 tons/year soda ash plant of Shaanxi Xinghua Group Co., Ltd. was shut down for maintenance. Although the third phase of the soda ash plant of Henan Jindadi Chemical Co., Ltd. was restarted after the overhaul, and the third 1 million tons/year production line of the Alxa soda ash project of Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy Co., Ltd. began to be put into operation, it could not be predicted because the production time could not be predicted, and it did not play a big role in making up for the market supply gap in the short term.

　　"As of December 7, the total inventory of soda ash plants reached 367,000 tons during the week, a decrease of 13,500 tons or 3.55% from the previous week. At present, the inventory of light soda ash is maintained at 10~20 days, and the inventory of some enterprises is low, only about a week. Sun Xuefei, an analyst at Longzhong Information Weekly, said.

　　Demand is stable

　　Soda ash is an important raw material for float glass production. According to Longzhong Information, float glass will account for 42.25% of soda ash consumption in 2023. As of December 7, the average price of the domestic float glass market was 1,987 yuan, an increase of 27 yuan or 1.38% from November 30, which supported the price increase of soda ash.

　　"Both float glass and photovoltaic glass are rigid production, and once the production line is ignited, it has to be produced 24 hours a day. As long as the glass factory still has room for profit, it will not stop the furnace for cold repair until the kiln age is aged. Fan Ajiao, a researcher at Hongye Futures Financial Research Institute, said, "At present, the daily melting volume is growing significantly and remains high, which also means that the demand for heavy alkali for float glass is high and stable." ”

　　"Driven by the expansion of production capacity in photovoltaic glass, lithium carbonate and other industries, the demand for soda ash will maintain a growth trend in 2023, and the downstream demand for soda ash will not change much in November ~ December. However, driven by the mentality of buying up and not buying down, due to the strong rise in the price of soda ash futures, the spot trading atmosphere has been driven and the enthusiasm of the middle and lower reaches to take goods has increased. Deng Qiuyu said.

　　"In the early stage, the downstream inventory of light alkali was low, and it was in a replenishment situation in the near future, and the consumption was increasing. However, due to the high spot price of soda ash, some downstream stocks have decreased due to increased cost pressure, and it is expected that the soda ash market will be mainly purchased on demand. Li Mengjie said.

　　Futures and cash promote each other

　　As of December 7, the soda ash futures 2401 contract rose from 1,740 yuan in early November to 2,730 yuan, an increase of nearly 1,000 yuan in the month.

　　In fact, the price of soda ash was suppressed not long ago. It is reported that at the beginning of November, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased from 120,000 tons in September to 530,000 tons, and the market generally expects that the third 1 million tons/year soda ash production line of Yuanxing Energy will be put into operation in the fourth quarter, resulting in the price of soda ash being suppressed too low, so the futures price has been hovering at 1,700 yuan.

　　However, the price of soda ash began to rise after mid-November. "On the one hand, this is because the new production capacity has not been put into operation for a long time, and the unexpected reduction of tradable spot has caused the expected difference in supply increase, forming a pulling force. On the other hand, it is because of the resonance of the capital game. The price elasticity of soda ash itself is very large, and this variety is very popular with funds in commodity futures, and speculative demand is very easy to trigger, and the market buys up and does not buy down, and the "herd effect" is particularly obvious. First, futures rose with spot, and then spot rose with futures, forming a spiral of positive feedback on futures and spots. Fan Ajiao said.

　　Although the potential negative of the later supply increment of soda ash still exists, and the disk may have peaked, but in terms of the recent tight spot situation, the road to bearish cash may not be smooth.

　　"In the current situation, there is very little spot circulation, and the price is rising higher and higher. In the short term, the contradiction between supply and demand of soda ash seems to be unable to be effectively resolved, and we can only wait until the future production capacity of soda ash increases. Personally, I think that the soaring price of soda ash also has the elements of over-interpretation and speculation in the market. In this regard, it is hoped that the market will not raise the price and let it return to a reasonable range. Zhang Fei, an analyst in the chemical sector of China Securities Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd., appealed.