How do you think about the completion of energy indicators?
More than half of the time, more than half of the task. The mid-term assessment report on the implementation of the "Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035" released a few days ago shows that the progress of the main target indicators is generally in line with expectations. Judging from the completion of energy-related indicators alone, there are mixed blessings.
The good news is that the target of "comprehensive energy production capacity" has been achieved ahead of schedule. Energy security is an overall and strategic issue related to the country's economic and social development, and is crucial to the country's prosperity and development, the improvement of people's lives, and the long-term peace and stability of society. For the first time, the 14th Five-Year Plan and the Long-Range Objectives Through 2035 include "comprehensive energy production capacity" in the safety and security category. To achieve sustainable economic and social development, it is necessary to promote energy transition and achieve high-quality development on the premise of ensuring energy security.
Since the "14th Five-Year Plan", China's comprehensive energy production capacity has been significantly enhanced. According to China's announcement at the Climate Ambition Summit, by 2030, the total installed capacity of wind and solar power will reach more than 1.2 billion kilowatts. However, by the end of 2023, the total installed capacity of wind and solar in the country has exceeded 1 billion kilowatts, and combined with the new year's wind and solar installed capacity target set by the National Energy Administration, China will significantly complete the target declared in the international community in 2024. With the rapid development of new energy, renewable energy has become a new force to ensure power supply in China, accounting for more than 50% of the country's total installed power generation capacity, historically exceeding the installed capacity of thermal power, and becoming a "Chinese business card" full of gold content.
At the same time, China's energy production, supply, storage and marketing system has been continuously improved, and the ability to stabilize energy supply and risk management and control has been further strengthened. Among them, new breakthroughs have been made in traditional energy, the ability to guarantee coal has been continuously improved, crude oil production has stabilized at more than 200 million tons per year, natural gas production has increased by more than 10 billion cubic meters for seven consecutive years, the flexible adjustment capacity of the power system has been steadily improved, the installed capacity of pumped storage power stations and new energy storage has increased significantly, and the energy supply is generally stable during key periods such as peak summer and peak winter.
Worryingly, the indicator of "lower energy consumption per unit of GDP" lagged behind expectations. The decrease in energy consumption per unit of GDP refers to the proportion of the decrease in the amount of energy consumed per unit of GDP per unit of production compared to the base period. The setting of this indicator is conducive to guiding the improvement of energy utilization efficiency, ensuring energy security, forcing the transformation of industrial structure and development of kinetic energy conversion with energy consumption constraints, and helping to achieve the "double carbon" goal. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2021, China's energy consumption per unit of GDP will be reduced by 26.4% compared with 2012, with an average annual decrease of 3.3%, which is equivalent to saving and reducing energy consumption of about 1.4 billion tons of standard coal.
Due to the heavy industrial structure and high proportion of investment, China's energy consumption per unit of GDP is about 3 times that of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and 1.5 times the world average, and there is still a large room for decline. According to preliminary estimates, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, every 1 percentage point increase in energy consumption per unit of GDP can reduce energy consumption by more than 500 million tons of standard coal per year, and correspondingly reduce carbon dioxide emissions by more than 100 million tons. It's important to do a good job of reducing energy consumption.
Multiple factors led to a slower than expected decline in energy consumption in the first two years of the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The industrial energy intensity is about 6 times that of the service industry, and the industrial energy consumption accounts for more than 60% of the total energy consumption, which has a great impact on the energy consumption per unit of GDP. During the pandemic, the surge in manufacturing exports and infrastructure investment have boosted economic growth, releasing more energy demand, while there is a positive correlation between the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP and the decline in energy consumption per unit of GDP. Affected by the new crown epidemic, the proportion of service industries with low energy intensity has declined, and the pull effect on the total economic output has declined, reducing the space for reducing energy consumption.
It is necessary to seize the opportunity of industrial restructuring and speed up the construction of a modern industrial system. With intelligent manufacturing as the main direction, we will promote industrial technological change, optimization and upgrading, accelerate the promotion and application of new intelligent manufacturing technologies, and promote the transformation of the manufacturing industry model. Encourage green technology innovation and green environmental protection industry development, promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional high-energy-consuming industries such as steel, nonferrous metals, building materials, and chemicals, and resolutely curb the blind development of high-energy-consuming, high-emission, and low-level projects. Promote the deep integration of modern service industry with advanced manufacturing industry and modern agriculture, extend the producer service industry to specialization and high-end value chain, and upgrade the life service industry to high quality and diversification.
It is necessary to tighten the energy-saving valve from the source and vigorously promote energy-saving technical services. On the one hand, there is great potential for energy-saving transformation. The penetration rate of advanced energy-saving technology in China's industrial field is less than 30%, and it is estimated that with the continuous promotion of technical energy saving, structural energy saving, and management energy saving, China's energy consumption per unit of GDP in 2030 is expected to decrease by about 30% compared with 2020; The economic adjustment cycle is precisely the window period for energy-saving transformation, and energy-saving has become an important means for enterprises to reduce costs. It is necessary to promote energy-saving transformation in key industries such as industry, construction, and transportation, improve energy efficiency standards, strictly review energy-saving, improve the level of terminal energy electrification, and encourage the development of comprehensive energy service industries.
The "14th Five-Year Plan" is a critical period to achieve carbon peaking, and it is also a critical period to promote high-quality economic development. It is necessary to continue to do a good job in the implementation of energy-related indicators in the spirit of nailing. With regard to the targets for completing progress ahead of schedule, it is necessary to continue to consolidate and expand the existing results. With regard to the indicators that lag behind the progress, it is necessary to optimize and adjust policies, intensify efforts to tackle tough problems, and do our utmost to promote the completion of the planned targets.
