The EU will set a target of 90% carbon reduction by 2040, staging a "limit pull" between ideals and reality

On the 6th local time, the European Commission (hereinafter referred to as the "European Commission") proposed that in order to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050, the EU needs to reduce emissions by 90% from 1990 levels by 2040.

The Commission made the recommendations in a detailed impact assessment to assess carbon neutrality targets, and said it would open discussions with all stakeholders, and that after the EU elections, the next European Commission would propose legislation that would be agreed by the European Parliament and EU Member States, as required by the European Climate Law.

However, with the EU's "Green New Deal" facing growing opposition from conservatives, farmers and industry, complaining about the excessive burden of EU environmental regulation, the future legislative process is sure to be contentious and polarised, which is why the Commission has carefully chosen to legislate after the next European Commission has been elected: beware of the issue being exploited by the far right in the electoral process.

The Commission also tactfully stated that achieving a 90 per cent reduction in emissions by 2040 would require a number of favourable conditions, starting with the full implementation of existing legislation to reduce emissions by at least 55 per cent by 2030.

In reality, some EU member states face challenges in meeting their 2030 climate targets.

"While the 2040 target is welcome, governments must remain focused on improving their climate action over the decade by strengthening the 2030 target," said Sarah Heck, head of EU climate analysis at Climate Action Tracker (CAT). ″

"Without strong climate action by 2030, the world is unlikely to meet strong targets by 2040, let alone net zero emissions by 2050," she said. ″

Dream: Towards full decarbonization

The European Climate Law, the EU's first climate law, requires the Commission to propose legislation on climate targets for 2040 within six months of the first stocktaking of the Paris Agreement. During the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in November 2023, the first global stocktake of the Paris Agreement has been conducted.

Previously, the European Union's professional bodies also gave recommendations on the need to reduce emissions by 90%-95% by 2040. It can be seen that the Commission's proposal was also made under this timeline and professional opinion.

In its impact assessment, the Commission said the Green Deal needs to be an industrial decarbonisation deal that builds on existing industrial strengths such as wind, hydropower and electrolysers to continue to increase manufacturing capacity in growth areas such as batteries, electric vehicles, heat pumps, solar photovoltaics, carbon capture and storage (CCS), biogas and biomethane, and the circular economy.

The Commission highlighted that carbon pricing and financing access are essential for European industry to meet its emissions reduction targets, and that "the Commission will set up a dedicated working group to develop a global approach to carbon pricing and carbon markets." Europe also needs to mobilize the right mix of private and public sector investment to make our economy both sustainable and competitive. In the coming years, there is a need to follow a European financial path in close cooperation with member states. ″

The Commission expects the EU's energy sector to be fully decarbonised shortly after 2040, which will be based on all zero- and low-carbon energy solutions, including renewables, nuclear, energy efficiency, storage, CCS, carbon removal and geothermal.

According to the Commission, an important benefit of these efforts is to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, with the Commission predicting an 80% reduction in fossil fuel energy consumption in the EU between 2021 and 2040. The European Commission also said that the EU's transport sector is expected to decarbonise through a combination of technological solutions and carbon pricing.

In this impact assessment, the EU specifically mentions the need to reduce emissions and remove carbon to achieve the recommended target of 90%. This will require the deployment of carbon capture and storage technologies, as well as the use of captured carbon in industry.

Reality: Let's update the 2030 target first

When the EU's targets were proposed, the reaction was polarized.

On the one hand, the EU's conservatives and groups whose interests have been harmed are increasingly dissatisfied with the EU's climate targets and the Green New Deal, as demonstrated by the recent peasant protests in several member states, including France, Germany, Belgium, Poland and Italy. On the 6th, just a few hours before the 2040 climate target was announced, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the revocation of a controversial pesticide law that was strongly opposed by the agricultural sector.

On the other hand, the anger of farmers contrasts sharply with the ominous warnings issued by climate scientists.

At the end of January, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) officially confirmed that Italy experienced a high temperature of 48.8°C on August 11, 2021, setting a new continental temperature record. The findings have been published in the International Journal of Climatology.

Previously, the highest temperature record on the European continent was 48.0°C (July 10, 1977), held by the Greek cities of Athens and Eleftsina.

Randall Cerveny, WMO's Rapporteur on Climate and Weather Extremes, said the organization was extremely cautious in verifying weather observations, painstakingly assessing the public to convince the public that the global temperature record was correctly measured. The survey also shows that there is a worrying trend of continued high temperature records in specific parts of the world.

Sevigny said the extreme values submitted to the WMO are a "microcosm" of the current climate, and that there is a real possibility that more will be possible across Europe in the future.

CAT estimates show that the European Commission's 2040 emissions reduction target will only be consistent with the global goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C if international climate finance increases substantially.

CAT pointed out that although the COP has urged countries to raise their 2030 targets for three consecutive years, the EU has not updated the 2030 targets in its new 2040 proposal, which does not include the phase-out of fossil fuels and relies heavily on carbon capture and storage technologies.

According to CAT's calculations, the EU's proposed 2040 year would reduce emissions by 90 percent from 1990 levels, and all other sectors would reduce emissions by 84 percent below 1990 levels if sectors such as forestry were excluded.

She also said that CAT will continue to rate its target as "insufficient" for the EU's current 2030 target, downgrading its policies and actions from "almost sufficient" to "insufficient".

Mia Moisio, an analyst at the New Climate Institute, argued in a report that the EU should raise its current 2030 target to at least 65% below 1990 levels, and also raise its 2040 emissions reduction target to at least 95% of the recommended reduction.