Weekend Highlights | Central bank governor: promote the implementation of policy measures to activate the capital market and boost investor confidence; brokers: 3,000-point defense battle begins, pay attention to the right entry point

This week, the Shanghai index continued to fluctuate downward, losing 3,000 points, and next week the long and short sides will continue to compete around 3,000 points, can they recover in time?

On the news, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the central bank, said on the 21st that efforts should be made to maintain the steady operation of the financial market, further promote the implementation of policies and measures to activate the capital market and boost investor confidence, and continuously stimulate market vitality. Huawei also has new news of 5.5G progress: Huawei has fully completed the 5G-A key technology test of the IMT-2020 (5G) promotion group, and has made major breakthroughs in a number of technical performances.

In terms of brokerage views, Guosheng Securities Research believes that the current market will rebound at any time in the case of exhaustion of profits, and it is no longer suitable to be bearish at the current stage, such as the market at the bottom of the large white line, can be regarded as the right adjustment point.

(1) Heavy news

1、10month21On Sunday, People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng said that prudent monetary policy is more precise and powerful, grasp counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment, and maintain a moderate and stable pace of monetary credit. In terms of price, continue to deepen the reform of interest rate marketization, and release the loan market quotation rate (LPRReform dividends, effectively play the role of the deposit interest rate market-oriented adjustment mechanism, further promote financial institutions to reduce real loan interest rates, reduce the comprehensive financing costs of enterprises and the cost of personal consumer credit. 

Pan Gongsheng said that the implementation of policies and measures to further promote the activation of the capital market and boost investor confidence has been implemented, and coordinated efforts have been made from the investment side, financing side, transaction end and reform side to continuously stimulate market vitality. Steadily resolve the default risk of large real estate enterprises' bonds, and strengthen the risk monitoring, early warning and prevention of urban investment bonds. "Stabilize expectations, prevent overshooting", and strengthen the "macro-prudence" of the foreign exchange market+Micro-supervision "two-in-one management, giving play to the decisive role of the market in the formation of exchange rates." Guide and stabilize the behavior and expectations of the financial market, prevent risk contagion in the stock market, bond market and foreign exchange market, and ensure the stable operation of the financial market.

2Huawei在5.5G上迎来新进展。10month21日晚间，据“Huawei中国”微信公众号消息，Huawei全面完成IMT-2020(5G)推进组5G-A关键技术测试，多项技术性能取得重大突破。测试结果表明，Huawei在多项5G-A上下行超宽带技术上取得重大性能突破，并且首次将端到端跨层协同技术应用在5G-A宽带实时交互上，在容量和时延方面实现关键进展。

(2) The latest research and judgment of securities firms

Guosheng Securities:3000The point defense battle begins, pay attention to the right tuning point

1、Technical aspect:

The Shanghai Index closed in3000Below the point, the long and short sides will be in the next few trading days3000Fight near the point. The two markets can accelerate the release, the bottom volume decline may mean that the short funds should be exhausted, from the index point and the overall valuation, it is no longer suitable for bearish; Looking at the long-term trend, the index has reached a downward trendYearsThe unbroken long-term trend line is expected to gradually stabilize and rise at the current point. 

2、Funding:

10month19On Sunday, the central bank announced that in order to maintain the reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the banking system, it was carried out by way of interest rate bidding3440billion7Ten-day reverse repurchase operation, the winning interest rate is1.8%。WindThe data shows that the day1620billion逆回购到期，因此单日净投放1820billion。沪深两市主力资金全天Net outflow278.11billion。其中创业板Net outflow76.39billion；沪深300Net outflow55.18billion。北向资金全天净卖出117.04billion，其中沪股通净卖出69.73billion，深股通净卖出47.31billion。

3、Information:

Released by the Office for National Statistics1—9month份全国房地产市场基本情况。从数据来看，1-9month，房地产开发投资、销售面积和销售额、房企到位资金等多指标累计增速仍为负，且降幅继续扩大。但从9month单month数据来看，上述指标环比均实现大幅增长，其中全国商品房销售面积和销售额环比增幅更是超过Four成，并且已经连续两个month正增长。当前房地产数据总体处in筑底弱复苏态势，说明既有政策效应在积极释放，同时也说明政策宽松力度还需要强化。短期来看，核心城市供求两端的政策持续调整优化，市场将保持一定活跃度，叠加低基数效应，estimateFour季度全国商品房销售面积同比降幅将有所收窄。 

4, Operation Strategy:

10Yield on annual U.S. Treasury notes recently closed at4.902%，Hit16With higher borrowing costs weakening investment and spending, and higher interest rates affecting stock and other asset prices, the probability of the Fed continuing to raise interest rates is extremely limited, and tightening monetary policy is coming to an end. Domestic third quarterGDPGrowth that exceeded market expectations also helped boost confidence and break the negative cycle of economic downturn and capital market downturn. The current market in the case of exhaustion, will start a rebound at any time, the current stage is no longer suitable for bearish, such as the market at the bottom of the volume of large white line, can be regarded as the right adjustment point. In terms of operation, focus on Huawei's automotive and mobile phone industry chain under the logic of domestic substitution; The securities sector may benefit if the index is expected to reverse; After the market investment sentiment warms up, the over-falling white horse varieties in the direction of new energy, the Internet, and medicine are also worth paying attention to.

长江证券：十month不平静、政策迎落地，资产配置迎来新机遇！ 

1、十month以来，双节叠加效应下出行需求高涨，多数省市中秋国庆消费增势良好，国内消费有望持续向好。同时，工业企业利润同比增速终in走出长达一年的负增长；制造业PMI时隔五个month重回扩张区间。国内政策靴子也逐步落地：10month11日，Four大国有商业银行分别发布公告，获汇金公司增持，汇金公司拟在未来6个month内继续在二级市场增持Four大行。 

2、10month14On Sunday, the CSRC's official website issued a document that in order to further strengthen the counter-cyclical adjustment of securities lending business, according to the current market conditions, the system of securities lending and strategic investors lending and placing shares will be adjusted and optimized, and on the premise of maintaining the relative stability of the system, the securities lending and strategic investor placement share lending will be adjusted in stages. 

3Recently, there has been a "series" of positive signals in domestic and foreign economic policies, and economically, production and consumption have revealed positive signals, and signs of economic stabilization are becoming more and more obvious; At the same time, in terms of policies, measures such as Huijin's entry into the market mark the window for the introduction of policies or "unfinished", and it is expected that the policy side will continue to make efforts to enhance the resilience of economic development. The good news overseas is that long-end U.S. Treasury rates may have peaked in stages. 

4The conflict in the Middle East has raised subsequent inflationary pressures, strong risk aversion has boosted gold prices, and geopolitical conflicts have spawned risk aversion to drive gold prices to strengthen sharply, forming a strong resonance with crude oil. Gold is sensitive to geopolitical disturbances and safe-haven, and short-term strength may continue. In addition to the disturbance, returning to the US economic cycle trading itself, the previous suppressive factors (economic resilience and bond supply concerns) have not been eliminated, and the next important window may continue11month议息会议。

5、The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the repair of real estate is possible"Coming more slowly","831"The stimulus of policy landing on real estate is impulsive. The recovery and differentiation of the "Golden Nine" in property sales, the start of the "Silver Ten" is flat, and more demand policy regulation is needed under the guidance of data. "See more than buy, list more than deal" is the biggest feature of the recent property market. 

6The signs of a phased peak in long-end U.S. Treasury rates are becoming more and more obvious, the market bottoming signal is frequent, the U.S. economy is still facing downside risks under the benchmark situation, and the Fed has successively released "dovish" signals, suggesting that the Fed is implying the Fed11month可能无需进一步加息。其次对in是否有必要进一步紧缩，美联储内部分歧较大；第三，汽车行业罢工蔓延至电影及医疗行业，都凸显着经济下行的隐忧。考虑到巴以冲突的爆发，避险情绪升温减弱市场风险偏好，市场转向传统避险资产，也有助in美债收益率下行。

7Standing at the current point, the market bottoming signal is clear,AStocks ushered in a window of allocation opportunities. There has been a "series" of positive signals in domestic and foreign economic policies, the window for the introduction of domestic policies or "unfinished", precious metals may be supported by geopolitical friction, the signs of long-end U.S. bond interest rates peaking in stages are becoming more and more obvious, positive signals of equity assets are frequent, and asset allocation may be more positive.

(3) Nuggets in the securities industry 

Zheshang Securities: U.S. upgrade.AIThe ban on chips and semiconductor equipment has accelerated the localization of semiconductor equipment

1、Event:10month17On Sunday, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BISAnnounced new semiconductor regulatory rules, the main contents of which include:：Update the Interim Final Rules on Export Control of Semiconductor Manufacturing Projects.1Refine the scope of control of semiconductor equipment.2Refine U.S. personnel restrictions to ensure U.S. companies can't provide support.3Expand the countries to which the regulations apply/The scope of the region is extended to those where the United States imposes an arms embargo21countries. 

2、The scope of semiconductor equipment control is further refined, and attention is paid to the localization opportunities of subdivisions. The restrictions on semiconductor equipment have been refined in the new regulations, mainly for advanced process semiconductor equipment, and newly added/The refinement includes:

epitaxial equipment, including epitaxial equipment for silicon, carbon-doped silicon, silicon-germanium, or carbon-doped silicon-germanium;

ion implantation equipment;

Etching equipment, including co-directional dry etching, atomic layer etching, equipment used for wet etching with an etching selectivity ratio of 100 times or greater from silicon germanium to silicon;

Deposition equipment, metal deposition equipment for metal interconnection barrier layer, liner layer, seed layer, top cover layer, PECVD equipment, ALD equipment, etc.;

Part of the lithography equipment;

ion beam or physical vapor deposition equipment for designing EUV masks;

Annealing and cleaning equipment for advanced node manufacturing.

3、Pay attention to the progress of localization of epitaxial equipment, which is one of the key equipment for advanced chip manufacturing. according toASMI，2020Global semiconductor epitaxial equipment market8billion, estimated2025year will grow to1.5 billion-18billion dollars. At present, the global semiconductor epitaxial equipment market is mainly dominated by applied materials,ASMIand other companies occupied, the current localization rate is extremely low.　

4、ALDEquipment localization has accelerated,ALDThe equipment is mainly used for28nmand the production of advanced chips below.2022Year of our countryALDThe localization rate of equipment is insufficient2%, at an extremely low level, domestic equipment manufacturers have achieved breakthroughs.　　

5The new round of US regulations has landed, optimistic about the follow-up domestic equipment capital expenditure+localization drive,estimate2024The global semiconductor industry is expected to usher in a cyclical recovery, and semiconductor capital expenditure is expected to usher in an upward cycle.SEMIestimate2024Global semiconductor equipment sales rebounded to1000billion, year-on-year+14%。 As the industry cycle recovers, capital expenditure in the domestic semiconductor industry is expected to increase. The localization rate of mature and advanced process equipment is expected to increase across the board, driving the growth of semiconductor equipment orders.

6Investment suggestions: The new regulations on semiconductor control have landed, and we are optimistic about the acceleration of equipment localization. It is recommended that the low-valued equipment leader North Huachuang, the subdivision link leading Microlead Nano, AMEC, Topjing Technology, Jingtest Electronics, Xinyuan Micro, pay attention to Shengmei Shanghai, Huahai Qingke, etc.

Dongguan Securities: Huawei's high-end mobile phones have returned strongly, and policies have increased to help them be independent and controllable

1HuaweiMate60A strong return is expected to drive the consumer electronics industry to bottom out.

Huawei flagship phoneMate60 Proin8month底上架官方商城，采用国产SoCAnd the network speed measurement is reached5GLevel, multi-faceted performance is excellent, after the launch continues to be in short supply, the supply chain continues to raise shipment forecasts, according toBCIData, Huawei's weekly share has jumped to the first place in China since the launch of Huawei's new machine. In the context of stagnant mobile phone shipments, HuaweiMateThe series has been well received by the market, and with its good performance after listing, Huawei's annual mobile phone shipments may exceed those before4000The forecast of 10,000 units is expected to drive the consumer electronics industry chain to achieve a bottoming out.　　

2Huawei多方面引领手机创新，把握核心环节供应链机遇。

智能手机存量背景下，消费者对in手机的个性化需求提升，尤其是对影像系统、存储规格、屏幕素质等提出更高要求，而折叠屏手机快速渗透也推动手机均价上涨，手机高端化趋势明显。HuaweiMate60The overall specifications of the series have been greatly upgraded, and major innovations have been ushered in in satellite calls, star flash, antenna radio frequency, mobile phone optics, storage specifications, mobile phone heat dissipation, folding screens, etc. HuaweiMate60The successful release of the series is expected to bring certain performance flexibility to relevant supply chain enterprises.　

3Industrial policies have increased to help breakthroughs in core technologies, and the process of domestic substitution of semiconductors has accelerated.

HuaweiMate60 Pro关键零部件的国产化进程超出市场预期，Huawei加大在“卡脖子” 领域的研发投入，引领核心技术的国产替代进程。

The strategic position of the integrated circuit industry is significant,The return of domestic high-end flagships shows that China's domestic substitution process in the field of integrated circuits has made phased progress, but the domestic self-sufficiency rate of advanced processes and high-end semiconductor equipment and materials is still low, and there is broad space for independent substitution. Driven by multiple factors such as policy increase, domestic advanced packaging, Semiconductor equipment and materials companies are expected to maintain rapid growth.　　

4、Investment Advice:

HuaweiMate60系列手机强势归来，一方面有望拉动智能手机终端销售，带动消费电子产业链触底反弹，可关注国产高端手机回归背景下智能手机供应链的业绩弹性，把握卫星通信、星闪连接、手机射频、散热、手机光学和折叠屏等细分环节；另一方面，Huawei新机零部件国产化程度大幅提升，关注内资晶圆厂产能扩张背景下先进封装企业、半导体设备与材料的投资机会。