National carbon market prices jump in July The carbon price index is expected to rise sharply in August
In July, the national carbon market price climbed again. Among them, on July 24 and July 25, the closing price of the national carbon market was 64 yuan / ton, setting a record high since the national carbon market was launched.
The Center for Sustainable Development of Fudan University (hereinafter referred to as the "Research Center") pointed out that the national carbon market price showed a jump in July, specifically the average daily closing price of the national carbon emission allowance (CEA) in July was 60.61 yuan / ton, a sharp increase of 4.90% over the previous month, significantly higher than other months this year. In terms of trading volume, CEA in July also continued the active trend in June, with an average daily trading volume of 162,200 tons, and more than half of the trading days exceeded 100,000 tons, especially on July 5, the total daily trading volume soared to 651,000 tons.
According to the research center, the national carbon market in July showed the following obvious characteristics: first, the price fluctuations increased, and the price rose sharply compared with the previous month; Second, the market activity has increased significantly, but the gap between the first and second half of the month is large.
In July this year, the national carbon market just celebrated its second anniversary of online trading. On July 16, 2021, the national carbon market was officially launched. The first compliance cycle of the national carbon market included 2,162 key emitters in the power generation industry, covering about 4.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year, making it the world's largest carbon market covering greenhouse gas emissions. As of July 14, 2023 (the last trading day before the second anniversary node), the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances (CEAs) was close to 240 million tons, and the cumulative trading volume was about 11.03 billion yuan.
"In the past two years, the construction of the national carbon market has made remarkable achievements, which not only promoted the implementation of emission reduction actions, but also provided valuable experience for other countries." The research center said, "In the future, with the orderly expansion of the coverage of the national carbon market, a multi-level carbon trading market with the national carbon emission trading market as the core and voluntary emission reduction trading as a supplement will be gradually constructed. ”
Huang Ming, executive director of the Sustainable Development Research Center of Fudan University, previously told reporters that the national carbon market should accelerate the pace of non-performing entities entering the market, and suggested the introduction of a liquidity provider system and a two-way bidding system, establish a carbon market adjustment mechanism, continuously enhance the liquidity of the carbon market, and reduce the risk of irrational fluctuations in carbon prices.
According to the Fudan Carbon Price Index for August recently released by the Research Center, the carbon price index is still expected to rise sharply in August. Among them, the buying price of CEA in August is expected to be 57.82 yuan / ton, the selling price is expected to be 61.54 yuan / ton, and the median price is 59.68 yuan / ton; The buying price index was 144.54, up 4.07%; The selling price index was 138.85, up by 6.25%; The median price index rose by 5.19% to 141.55. At the same time, in August 2023, the purchase price of China's certified voluntary emission reductions (CCER) in the national carbon market is expected to be 55.29 yuan/ton, the selling price is expected to be 58.10 yuan/ton, and the median price is 56.70 yuan/ton. The buying price index was 138.99, up 1.52%; The selling price index was 139.76, up 3.75%; The mid-price index was 139.39, up 2.65%.
"There is a 95% probability that the CCER price used in the national carbon market will fall within the range of 55.29-58.10 yuan / ton, which is significantly higher than last month." The research center believes that from the current CCER price and CCER price comparison, with the recent decline of CCER price and the rise of CEA price, the price relationship between the two gradually tends to be reasonable, "according to international experience, the price of voluntary emission reductions is roughly about 75%-80% of the quota price." ”
The research center said that in the future, with the restart of the national CCER market, the price comparison relationship between the two will be further integrated with international standards. It is reported that Liu Youbin, spokesman of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, previously revealed that the infrastructure required to launch the voluntary emission reduction trading market has been basically completed, and strive to launch the national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market as soon as possible this year.
