The incentive effect of the carbon market has begun to show that the green industry has expanded rapidly
As an important policy tool to achieve the "dual carbon" goal, the national carbon emission trading market has reached its second anniversary of operation. Although the national carbon market currently only includes more than 2,000 key emitting enterprises in the power industry, the steadily rising carbon price and the active preparation of industries including building materials and steel have sent a strong signal of green transformation to the society, and the market incentive effect has also promoted the rapid expansion of green industries including photovoltaic and hydrogen energy, becoming the "engine" for a new round of urban economic growth.
Carbon prices are rising steadily
On July 16, 2021, the national carbon market officially launched trading in Shanghai after many years of gestation, and it has now reached its second anniversary, and the data shows that by August 10, the cumulative trading volume of the national carbon market was 242 million tons, with a cumulative transaction amount of 11.157 billion yuan, and the market closing price on the day was 69.52 yuan per ton, up more than 30% from about 52 yuan per ton in the early days of the market.
Lai Xiaoming, chairman of the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange, analyzed that since the opening of the national carbon market, the market operation has generally shown obvious characteristics such as performance-type trading and stable price increases. On the one hand, since the opening of the market, there have been transactions on every trading day, but the trading volume is mainly concentrated at the end of the year, especially in November and December, the market volume accounts for nearly 90%, the characteristics of market performance transactions are obvious, and on the other hand, the carbon market price rises as the compliance approaches, the subsequent market runs smoothly, and the activity of market participation is highly consistent with the compliance period.
Statistics show that so far, all provinces and cities in the country have key emitting enterprises participating in the national carbon market, and the cumulative number of enterprises participating in trading exceeds more than half of the total number of key emitting enterprises, and nearly 70% of key emitters have participated in trading many times. "After two years of operation and development, the role of the national carbon market price discovery mechanism has initially appeared, and the awareness and ability level of enterprises to reduce emissions have been effectively improved, which has played a positive role in promoting low-cost emission reduction, and has become an important window to show China's active response to climate change." Lai Xiaoming said.
Zhang Junjie, chief economist of the Green Finance 60 Forum, believes that from the perspective of the emission reduction attributes of the carbon market, the national carbon market achieves the initial goal of carbon emission reduction in the power generation industry by limiting the emission intensity of the power generation industry, forms a carbon price in carbon quota trading, and also provides a price signal for the low-carbon transformation of the whole society.
According to industry experts, although there is still a big gap between the domestic market carbon price and Europe and other places, the current market carbon price is suitable for the current stage of development. "The price of carbon is determined by many factors, and one of the big factors is the cost of reducing emissions." Xu Huaqing, director of the National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, believes that China's current carbon price reflects China's current ability to accept emission reduction costs, which is a carbon price formed under different stages of development and different emission reduction targets, China's carbon price is reasonable, and it is obviously impossible to require China's carbon price to be consistent with the EU's carbon price, and a development process is needed.
Low-carbon wind "blows" into various industries
In the view of industry experts, as the national carbon market is launched, more and more signals of emission reduction and green development are transmitted, and increasing emission reduction to promote transformation and development has become a concerted action of major key emission industries. In the petrochemical industry, although the transformation faces great challenges, more and more enterprises are also "launching" projects such as maximizing the greening of electricity, accelerating the transition from "gray hydrogen" to "green hydrogen", and increasing carbon dioxide reuse.
"The carbon market has expanded from local pilots to the national market, and the included enterprises are also expected to gradually expand from electricity to industries including building materials and petrochemicals, and related industries continue to step up preparations." Zhang Junjie believes that the carbon market not only promotes energy conservation and carbon reduction, but also stimulates low-carbon innovation.
According to data from Tianyancha, the number of companies in the hydrogen energy industry, known as "ultimate energy", grew rapidly, reaching more than 3,060 hydrogen-related companies by mid-June, of which more than 580 were newly registered in 2022, an increase of 24.8% in new registered enterprises, and more than 130 new registered enterprises were added from January to May 2023.
"Every line is planning for a low-carbon transition." As an industrial economics researcher, Cheng Wei, a senior consultant of a consulting company, lamented that with the strong signal of green development conveyed by carbon prices, if you do not pay attention to the green and low-carbon strategy, technical feasible path and market potential of the industry, industry consulting can no longer keep up with the "rhythm" of customers, let alone lead the industry trend.
Green investment has become a new engine of urban economy
"There are costs to carbon emissions, and there are benefits to carbon reduction". This concept has also stimulated emerging industries including photovoltaics and hydrogen energy to usher in a period of explosive growth, and with the development of related "green industries", the urban economy has also accelerated the "reshaping".
"Chasing light" is the "hot word" of the capital market since this year, which means that in order to catch up with the rhythm of the development of the photovoltaic industry, some companies continue to enter the market across borders, which has almost become a regular action of many enterprises. Statistics from institutions show that since the beginning of this year, at least nearly 70 listed companies have cross-border entered the photovoltaic industry, involved in the upstream silicon, cells, modules and other links of the photovoltaic industry, and some new technologies including heterojunctions, perovskites, etc. are also accelerating iteration under the impetus of capital.
In fact, with the significant growth of the global photovoltaic market in recent years, photovoltaic products and new energy vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, etc. have become China's export "new three". According to data released by the Ministry of Commerce, in the first half of this year, the total export of the "new three things", including solar cells, increased by more than 60%, of which the export volume of the photovoltaic industry reached 28.92 billion US dollars, an increase of 12% year-on-year, becoming a new growth point for trade.
In the view of industry experts, although the market is also worried that rapid expansion may lead to overcapacity in the industry, it is an indisputable fact that industries such as photovoltaics have become new growth points for investment. Statistics from institutions show that in the first half of this year, the photovoltaic industry alone invested in more than 150 expansion projects, with a cumulative investment of nearly one trillion yuan, plus wind, solar and hydrogen storage integration projects, the investment scale exceeded one trillion yuan.
Qujing City, Yunnan Province, a city that is not well known outside Yunnan Province, has benefited from the rapid development of green industries such as photovoltaics, and has been "soaring" on the list of the top 100 cities in terms of national GDP in recent years. In 2022, Qujing rose 10 places to 79th in the ranking of the top 100 cities by GDP in the country, and its GDP increased by 7.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2023, which was 2.4 percentage points higher than the GDP growth of Yunnan Province. In fact, Qujing only "broke into" the top 100 for the first time in 2020.
According to reports, the development of two 100-billion-level industries has injected vitality into Qujing's economy. Data show that in the first half of 2023, Qujing's green silicon photovoltaic industry increased by 67.9% year-on-year, and the new energy battery industry increased by 53.1% year-on-year. "Green and low-carbon transformation is not a 'burden', but a 'new engine' that drives economic and social development." In Cheng Wei's view.
