This year, the "Ten Actions to Peak Carbon Emissions" will be carried out solidly, why is it difficult to reach the peak in the transportation field and reach the peak late?

The 2024 government work report clearly states that "actively and steadily promote carbon peak and carbon neutrality". The report is explained in four sentences. The first sentence is "to carry out the 'Ten Actions to Peak Carbon Emissions'". According to the analysis of industry experts, this task is the top priority of this year's "double carbon" work.

The term "Ten Actions for Carbon Peaking" first appeared in the "Action Plan for Carbon Peaking Before 2030" issued by the State Council in October 2021, referring to "green and low-carbon energy transformation actions, energy conservation, carbon reduction and efficiency improvement actions, industrial carbon peak actions, urban and rural construction carbon peak actions, green and low-carbon transportation actions, circular economy to help carbon reduction actions, green and low-carbon technology innovation actions, carbon sink capacity consolidation and improvement actions, green and low-carbon national actions, and echelon and orderly carbon peak actions in various regions".

The reporter noted that the transportation field has the characteristics of "difficult to reach the peak and late to reach the peak". Shao Shegang, director of the Highway Traffic Environment Research Center of the Highway Research Institute of the Ministry of Transport, said: "The transportation industry does not use the word 'carbon peak', but uses the word 'green and low-carbon' to describe it, which shows that this is still very different from the industrial field and urban and rural construction." ”

When will the transportation sector peak?

"In the past, there was a view that the transportation sector was one of the fastest growing sectors of carbon emissions in China. What's going on now?"

In response to reporters' questions, Wang Hewu, director of the Zero Carbon Transportation Research Center of the Institute of Carbon Neutrality at Tsinghua University, said: "Before 2020, it can be said that after 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have achieved explosive growth, driving the green and low-carbon development of China's road traffic (referring to highway and urban road traffic) to achieve remarkable results, and helping to slow down the growth of carbon emissions in the entire transportation industry." ”

It is reported that at present, carbon emissions in the transportation sector account for about 10.4% of China's total carbon emissions, and road transportation accounts for more than 85% of carbon emissions in the transportation sector, which is the absolute main body and focus of carbon emissions reduction in the transportation sector. Compared with Europe and the United States and other countries, China's transportation industry has the characteristics of low proportion, fast growth rate and high emission reduction potential. There is an argument that, based on the experience of developed countries, the transportation sector will eventually account for one-third of total carbon emissions. Even in the case of a significant decline in carbon emissions in industry, buildings and other fields, the carbon emissions of the transportation industry will continue to grow.

Zhou Wei, former chief engineer of the Ministry of Transport, pointed out at the 6th China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCCED) Green Belt and Road Initiative and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Forum held in 2021 that "the low-carbon transformation of transportation also means the decoupling of transportation development from the increase of carbon emissions.

He judged that in the coming period, as China's national economy and transportation will continue to maintain a rapid growth trend, the technical level and energy structure of transportation development can not be fundamentally changed, the total carbon emissions in the field of transportation will continue to increase, the pressure of emission reduction is great, and the situation is grim. In a sense, the transportation sector may be one of the last industrial sectors to peak China's carbon emissions.

When exactly will the carbon peak be achieved in the transportation sector? There are different conclusions based on different statistical methods and calculation boundaries.

Shao Shegang revealed that according to relevant calculations, under the scenario of low growth and enhanced low-carbon, by 2035, energy consumption in the transportation sector can enter a plateau. Among them, road transport determines the time of carbon peak in the transportation sector, which will enter the carbon peak plateau period from 2025 to 2035. The water transport sector will enter the plateau period even later, probably until 2035.

Wang Hewu told reporters: "Through the calculation of the Institute of Carbon Neutrality of Tsinghua University, we believe that the carbon peak of automobile road traffic can be achieved in 2025, when the carbon emissions in the field of road transportation (transportation) will only increase by 1.6 million tons from 784 million tons in 2020 to 800 million tons, and then begin to decline." By 2060, carbon emissions from the transport sector could be reduced by 70%, but 30% will still not be reduced, and carbon-containing fuels will still be used. Regardless of whether these carbon fuels are biomass fuels or synthetically generated, there will still be a lot of carbon emissions coming out of the end links in the transportation sector. ”

The use of new energy vehicles in China can replace the consumption of 10 million tons of gasoline and diesel every year

Since the "Ten Actions for Carbon Peaking" was proposed, the transportation sector has achieved remarkable results in green and low-carbon development. "In recent years, the green and low-carbon results of the transportation sector have been mainly reflected in road traffic and non-road traffic. Among them, the most significant aspect of road transportation is the electrification of vehicles, and the non-road transportation aspect, such as the development of high-speed rail, has brought about changes in the transportation structure. In the past, due to the limited capacity of rail transportation, people relied more on road transportation when traveling. With the development of high-speed rail, a large part of the travel of operational buses and private cars has been replaced. Especially when the travel mileage is less than two or three hundred kilometers, the substitution of high-speed rail is more and more significant, and the passenger traffic of intercity highways is significantly reduced. Wang Hewu said.

He told reporters: "With the increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles, its ability to replace gasoline and diesel has been revealed." According to the statistics of the Ministry of Public Security, the number of new energy vehicles in use in China in 2023 will be 20.41 million, accounting for 6% of the total number of vehicles. We have preliminarily calculated that the use of more than 20 million new energy vehicles and 400 million electric two-wheelers can reduce the consumption of gasoline and diesel by 30 million tons per year. The number of cars is increasing, but the increase in gasoline and diesel use is not rising as fast as expected, because most of it is replaced by electricity. The substitution effect of electric energy has surpassed the substitution effect of natural gas and all other alternative fuels in transportation, and has become the second largest energy source for automobile transportation in China. ”

According to him, before 2020, the reason why the transportation sector is the fastest growing area of carbon emissions in China is mainly due to the substantial increase in the number of fuel vehicles in China, the large demand for materials for infrastructure construction, and the rapid development of the express delivery industry, etc., which bring greater demand for road traffic, thereby increasing the intensity of automobile use. After 2020, the growth rate of carbon emissions in the transportation sector will slow down, which has a lot to do with the high growth rate of new energy vehicles.

"The growth rate of fossil fuel consumption in China's road traffic has slowed down, and it can even be said that it is close to peaking. The popularization of electric vehicles is the main force to curb the continuous increase of carbon emissions in the transportation sector, and related technologies will become the core technology to achieve carbon neutrality after the carbon peak in this field. The popularization of electric vehicles is a must for the transportation sector to take a green and low-carbon development path. He said.