Guarding against five major risks in the low-carbon transition

The carbon peak pilot is an important measure to implement the top-level design of the central government's "dual carbon" and assumes a key role in exploring the way for the national carbon peak. The pilot construction of carbon peaking should follow the core principles of active and prudent, adapting measures to local conditions, reform and innovation, and safe carbon reduction, respect the laws of industrial evolution and scientific and technological progress, coordinate development and security, properly prevent and resolve risks and challenges that may arise in exploration, and form a low-carbon transition risk management plan with forward-looking perspective, strategic thinking and promotion value.

Prudently grasp the rhythm of the transformation of new and old development momentum, and guard against the risk of "breaking before the economy". The optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is an important driving force to achieve the goal of carbon peaking. At present, all parts of the country continue to deepen the practice of "vacating cages for birds, phoenix nirvana", which has effectively promoted the transformation of development mode. On the one hand, it is necessary to closely track the key signs that the new economic engines such as strategic emerging industries and future industries have been firmly established on the basis of quantitative indicators of new quality productivity, and focus on the number of national specialized, special and new "little giant" enterprises, the scale of industrial research and development above the designated size, the growth rate of added value and output value of high-tech industries, etc., so as to guide the formulation and implementation of industrial restructuring policies. At the same time, it is necessary to consider the multiple challenges faced by the transformation of traditional industries, such as domestic "dual carbon" requirements and international green regulations, analyze their role in the security and resilience of the supply chain and industrial chain, and formulate risk mitigation and hedging plans for the transformation of traditional industries.

On the other hand, cities, where industry is dominant, especially manufacturing, should make overall plans for the adjustment of carbon emission stocks and incremental access in the process of energy consumption and carbon emission peaking, effectively improve carbon productivity, and avoid the risk of compressing development space and insufficient development momentum caused by overly radical carbon reduction measures. At the same time, it is necessary to objectively understand the industrial base, development stage and positioning of the pilot cities in regional development, form a "double carbon" progress evaluation index that takes into account the comparative advantages of cities and industrial synergy, and prevent the risk of further aggravation of regional development imbalance caused by the "simple one-size-fits-all" assessment mechanism.

We will systematically plan to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy and prevent the risk of "new and unstable" energy. Energy decarbonization is the basic support for achieving the "dual carbon" goal, and "energy electrification + power decarbonization" is an important means. On the one hand, advanced manufacturing, digital economy industries, and new digital infrastructure have increasingly become the main forces driving the growth of electricity consumption. At present, some regions are highly dependent on foreign electricity, and the increase in local electricity consumption will lead to an increase in carbon emission pressure in power exporting areas. In this context, it is necessary to avoid risks such as "supply exceeding demand" and "carbon leakage" caused by the uncoordinated adjustment of industrial structure and energy structure. In addition, it is necessary to establish an early warning and response mechanism for "black swan" and "gray rhinoceros" events in the process of low-carbon transformation of the power system, so as to prevent different degrees of risks to the stability of the power system caused by small probability extreme weather events and the volatility of renewable energy power generation. On the other hand, we should focus on the use of nuclear energy, hydrogen energy, coal-fired power units coupled with biomass power generation, new energy storage and other forms of clean energy to escort the "smooth and safe green transformation" of the energy system. Among them, we should pay attention to the transmission of risk control costs in the process of energy transition to end users through electricity price reform, and actively improve the effective coordination of power grids, power generation enterprises, power users, governments and other entities in the prevention and resolution of energy transition risks, so as to maximize common value.

Comprehensively monitor and respond to the changing trend of employment structure, and prevent the risk of "missing out" employment. The adjustment of the industrial structure will lead to changes in the employment structure. On the one hand, the low-carbon transition is accompanied by the loss of employment in some traditional industries, as well as the creation of jobs in emerging industries and new occupations. However, new jobs do not necessarily arise in areas or industries where the original jobs have disappeared, and they often require newer or higher professional skills of the working group. It can be said that there are differences in the adaptability of different groups of people to changes in the employment situation in the low-carbon transition, and it is necessary to carry out the assessment of the employment impact of the low-carbon transition and formulate a comprehensive response plan under the guidance of "striving to achieve social fairness and justice in the process of green transformation", so as to achieve fuller and higher-quality employment.

On the other hand, in the short and medium term, it is necessary to focus on protecting the rights and interests of workers and improving the social security system and reemployment promotion mechanism in industries where the employment situation changes drastically and employment losses are concentrated. Among them, for new professions such as carbon emission managers, building energy conservation and emission reduction consultants, and comprehensive energy service personnel, we will establish and improve a new vocational training and certification system and incentive policies for the introduction and cultivation of green and low-carbon talents. At the same time, in the medium and long term, it is necessary to strengthen the positive coupling of policies in multiple fields such as population, industry, and education, and promote high-quality employment growth in the process of transformation.

Scientifically assess the climate risk exposure of the financial system to prevent the risk of "damaged stranding" assets. Climate change risks have a profound impact on the financial system, including both "physical risks" caused by extreme weather and ecosystem losses, which cause asset values to decline or loss, as well as "transition risks" caused by changes in public policies, technological changes, and changes in market preferences. Climate risk can be transmitted to the financial system through multiple channels and ultimately undermine the ability to finance the real economy. On the one hand, some high-carbon emission enterprises will face the risk of stranding their assets if they do not transform in a timely manner, or retire their high-carbon production capacity early. It can be said that the unnecessary expansion of production capacity such as fossil energy and chemical industry will form a high carbon lock-in, and lead to the corresponding risk of huge capital precipitation and idleness. At the same time, climate risks will also directly or indirectly lead to the loss of the value of local government assets and collateral, making it more difficult for the financing platform companies under their actual control to raise funds.

On the other hand, if the traditional high-carbon industries adopt a "stampede, aggressive" interruption financing strategy, it may have a negative impact on economic development and social stability. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate climate risks into the comprehensive risk management system of the financial industry, explore and promote enterprises to carry out climate information disclosure, start to build a data platform for climate risk and green transition, carry out scenario analysis and stress testing on climate risk and resilience in the financial sector, further enrich the policy toolkit of transition finance, and accelerate the improvement of the ability of governments and enterprises to identify and respond to climate risks.

Weigh the priority of carbon technology innovation demand and prevent the risk of "spatio-temporal misallocation" of resources. Scientific and technological innovation is the key to achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality in high-quality economic and social development. Towards the "dual carbon" goal includes three stages: stable peaking, rapid carbon reduction, and comprehensive neutralization (deep decarbonization), and the demand for "dual carbon" scientific and technological innovation also has distinct stages. On the one hand, for the carbon peak stage, the research on basic, original and disruptive technologies for the efficient, low-carbon, flexible and intelligent use of coal still needs to be strengthened, and there is still much to be done in scientific and technological innovation in the fields of comprehensive energy efficiency, renewable energy stability, and new-generation nuclear energy. Among them, when local governments guide and support the "dual carbon" scientific and technological innovation, they should combine their own industrial base and scientific and technological innovation advantages, objectively weigh the needs of short- and medium-term scientific and technological innovation priorities and long-term technical reserves, and do not "evenly distribute", "rush up" and "follow the clouds" of scientific and technological innovation resources.

On the other hand, it is necessary to achieve a balance between the persistence of "long-termism" and the flexibility of "keeping pace with the times", establish a dynamic mechanism for the prediction, discovery and evaluation of cutting-edge and disruptive technologies of "dual carbon", and regularly update and adjust the deployment of technology research. Among them, the demonstration pilot project will be used as an important carrier to test the safety of the application of "dual carbon" technology, and fully evaluate the socio-economic impact and potential risks of the large-scale application of related technologies.