Outburst! "Huge explosion", Moscow attacked again! Another accident at an important Russian oil terminal! Biden met with Fumio Kishida and Yoon Seok-yue

Late last night, Biden met with Fumio Kishida and Yoon Seok-yue.

According to the live broadcast of the White House, at 11 a.m. EST on the 18th (23 o'clock on the evening of the 18th Beijing time), US President Biden welcomed Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue at Camp David, the presidential resort of Maryland.

Regarding the meeting of the leaders of the United States, Japan and South Korea, it is reported that this is the first time that the leaders of the three countries have held a trilateral summit outside international multilateral forums. In this regard, politicians and media in the United States, Japan and South Korea, while declaring that "there is no reason to regard this summit as a provocation", want to cover up the joint development of a hypersonic missile interception system by the three countries, discuss extending (nuclear) deterrence, and strengthen the so-called "collective security", as if to create a "small Asia-Pacific NATO" posture.

There was a "huge explosion" in Moscow, and the Russian Ministry of Defense responded

Comprehensive foreign media reports, in the early morning of the 18th local time, there was a "huge explosion" in the center of Moscow, the Russian capital, and then the Russian Ministry of Defense released news that Russian air defense forces shot down a Ukrainian drone over Moscow, and the drone crashed and caused a certain degree of damage to the building of the Moscow Expo Center.

According to reports, the Russian Ministry of Defense said that the Ukrainian side launched the attack at 4 a.m. local time on the 18th, and the target was Moscow. The message notes that after being detected by anti-aircraft weapons, the drone changed its flight path and fell on a non-residential building in the city of Moscow.

Moscow Mayor Sobyanin said that "the wreckage of the drone fell in the area of the Expo center and did not cause major damage to the building", saying that rescuers quickly arrived at the scene and there is no news of casualties yet.

The report quoted the Russian news agency as saying that a wall of the Expo Center pavilion partially collapsed, with a collapsed area of about 30 square meters.

Reuters reported that after the explosion, a witness at the scene said a "huge explosion" was heard, which could be heard almost throughout the commercial center. According to reports, the Expo Center is a large space for holding large exhibitions, less than 5 kilometers from the Kremlin.

Something suddenly happened at an important oil terminal in Russia!

According to the British "Guardian" quoted Russian media news on the 18th, a fire broke out at the Russian Novorossiysk oil terminal, about 107 miles (about 172 kilometers) from Crimea. Novorossiysk is one of the largest ports on the Black Sea and Russia's main oil export center in the region.

According to the report, it is not clear whether the fire was caused by Ukrainian drone strikes, and Ukraine has launched several drone attacks on Russian territory in the past day.

According to the media, the city of Novorossiysk is located in the Novorossiysk Bay on the northeastern coast of the Black Sea and was established in 1838 for the Black Sea Fleet. The port is one of the finest seaports on the Black Sea and is regarded as an important port for Russia's trade with Asia, the Middle East, Africa and the Mediterranean, where the main base of the Black Sea Fleet is based at the Novorossiysk Naval Base.

Lithium carbonate spot end price sentiment rose

This week, the main contract of lithium carbonate, LC2401, maintained a weak oscillation, falling below the 200,000 yuan / ton mark and closing at 195,750 yuan / ton, down 6.02% weekly. In terms of spot, the daily decline of lithium carbonate narrowed to less than 2,000 yuan. According to SMM data, on August 18, battery-grade lithium carbonate fell 1,500 yuan to 225,000 yuan / ton, a new low in more than 3 months, and has fallen for 28 consecutive days, with a cumulative decline of 19,500 yuan in the past 5 days. Some analysts pointed out that due to the rapid decline in spot, lithium carbonate produced by imported mines has been in a loss state, the willingness to reduce production and raise prices has increased, and some lithium mine holders have also chosen to raise prices, especially after the bottoming signs of futures, the spot price sentiment is expected to rise further.

Wei Chaoming, an analyst at Founder Medium-term Futures, believes that the replenishment market that the market is looking forward to has not arrived, and the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate has turned from falling to rising is the trigger for this round of decline. "As some companies in the early stage of oversold goods after going to a certain amount of inventory, the recent pressure has eased, the phenomenon of spot over-sold goods has decreased, and although lithium prices continue to fall, the actual transaction improvement is limited, so the market price means an increase, and the spot price decline slows down." Wei Chaoming said that in the short term, the LC2401 contract basis has converged to a relatively reasonable level. If there is a concentrated replenishment in the spot market, the spot price is stable at the current position, and the futures disk is expected to oscillate closer to the spot price; If the peak season replenishment expectation is further disappointed, the possibility of futures prices leading a new round of adjustment cannot be ruled out.

"At present, about to enter the production and sales season of the terminal new energy vehicle 'Golden Nine Silver Ten', cathode material manufacturers usually start replenishment 1-2 months in advance, but this year's cathode material replenishment demand has not arrived." Li Ni, a senior researcher at Changjiang Futures Nonferrous Metals, said that with the further increase in the inventory of finished products of power batteries, the pressure of shipment increases, and the negative feedback is transmitted upward to cathode material manufacturers, and most material companies reduce the inventory of lithium carbonate raw materials, mainly for just need to purchase.

From a fundamental point of view, according to Baichuan Yingfu data, on the supply side, it is expected that the production of lithium carbonate in the week is expected to be about 9110 tons, a decrease of 4.36% from last week's output. Due to the fact that it is in the summer, the salt lake end is in the golden period of production, except for the reduction and suspension of production of individual factories, most of them are in a state of full production, the output remains stable, the industrial carbon market is relatively large, and the smelting end of the large factory and its own mining rights enterprises maintain stable production. In terms of demand, the downstream lithium carbonate market demand has not improved this week, and the market only needs a small amount of transactions. In addition to delivery orders, the lithium salt plant has a limited volume of zero orders; The overall output of downstream cathode materials declined in August, while the proportion of raw material special supply of battery factories increased, and some head enterprises also had a little foundry, and demand was still insufficient.

On the news, a lot of things have happened in the new energy market this week, including the auction transaction of more than 4 billion yuan in the Garda lithium mine, which has the potential to become a super-large lithium mine; Tesla set off a new round of electric vehicle price war; CATL released a 4C supercharged battery, which lasts 400 kilometers in 10 minutes of charging; Lithium prices fell rapidly, and lithium miners raised prices; Xinjiang Nonferrous Metal Group spodumene will organize auctions again.

Among them, Tesla's price war was once interpreted as a negative factor for lithium prices, and the logic was that the terminal price reduction forced upstream cost control. However, in the view of Zhang Weixin, an analyst at CSC Futures, the price reduction tide of new energy vehicles is good news for lithium prices. "This price war is different from the price war in the automotive industry at the beginning of the year, which is essentially a normal business behavior to cope with the peak season at the end of the year and seize market share in the context of the sharp decline in raw material prices." Zhang Weixin believes that if the sales of new energy vehicles exceed expectations this year, one of the reasons may be price cuts. Therefore, the price reduction is actually good news for lithium prices.

The recent news about the lithium mine bidding has also come to an end, and the prospecting right of the Lijiagou North Lithium Mine Exploration Block in Jinchuan County, Sichuan Province was won by Sichuan Energy Investment Capital Holdings Co., Ltd., and the transaction price was 101017 million yuan, which was more than 1771 times higher than the starting price; The bidding for the prospecting right of the Garda lithium mine in Malkang City has ended, and the highest price is 420579 million yuan, which is 1317 times higher than the starting price.

"It can be seen from this auction that China's current contradiction lies in the fact that the excess of low-grade lithium carbonate midstream products cannot be fully applied to downstream demand and the mismatch between downstream market scale development." Changan Futures analyst Wang Chuhao believes that in fact, the total amount of global lithium resources is not scarce, but both large-scale, high-grade, easy-to-mine lithium resource projects are rare, at present, Mexico, Chile and other lithium-rich countries are gradually strengthening their domestic lithium mine control, spodumene is monopolized by Australia and strong willingness to raise prices, overseas salt lakes are mainly from the South American triangle, but also China's main import source countries, but a number of overseas lithium mine investment intention cooperation terminated, overseas lithium mine investment boom is now "ebb tide", Secondly, at present, most of the overseas lithium mines are locked in the form of equity participation, long-term underwriting, etc., and it is difficult for new players to enter in the future, and domestic high-quality lithium resources have become the focus of competition for all parties.

The Futures Daily reporter noticed that with the rapid development of the new energy industry and the uneven distribution of global lithium resources, many Chinese-funded companies began to join the overseas lithium mine battle. On August 14, Hengtong issued an announcement that its wholly-owned subsidiary intends to subscribe for convertible bonds issued by Yuheng Lithium Holdings Co., Ltd. for US$3 million. The vast majority of the US$3 million investment is used to explore 16 lithium tenements in Zimbabwe. According to incomplete statistics from the reporter of Futures Daily, in addition, many listed companies such as Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, China Mining Resources, and Huayou Cobalt have realized the layout of overseas lithium mines. Currently, there are quite a few companies on the way.

In particular, Xinjiang Nonferrous Metal Group is about to open a lithium auction again next week. "The high-priced auctions including Lijiagou North and Jiada lithium mines show that the capital market's enthusiasm for lithium mine development and investment is still high, and this auction will be a test of market sentiment." Zhang Weixin believes that at this stage, futures have shown signs of stabilization, spot declines have slowed down, spot merchants are holding prices, and the market will usher in the year-end automobile consumption season, on the whole, it is expected that the auction price will be more reasonable, and the possibility of starting a family at a low price is unlikely. "If the auction price is ideal, the phased bottom of lithium carbonate prices will be further confirmed." Zhang Weixin emphasized.

For the future view of lithium carbonate, the current market is generally bearish. "In the long term, we still think lithium prices will fall, but during the year, we are not so pessimistic." Zhang Weixin said that next week's lithium carbonate futures price is likely to maintain a bottom oscillation trend, and spot prices are also expected to gradually stabilize. He believes that in 2023, the spot price center of lithium carbonate is expected to remain above 200,000 yuan / ton.

"The structure of lithium carbonate is complex, the supply chain is intertwined, the industrial chain time cycle is long, and fluctuations in any of these links may be reflected on the plate, at this time, the excess pattern at this time is on the one hand the local appearance of the disk for lithium carbonate profits, on the other hand, it is the inevitable connection between the uneven supply and demand growth rate and the accumulation of the obvious accumulation of the warehouse, which is also the result of the joint action of the inventory cycle of the lithium carbonate industry chain." Wang Chuhao said that the real structural pattern of lithium carbonate has not yet appeared, and in the future, it is expected that the demand for overseas imports and high-grade raw materials will increase in the long-term perspective, coupled with downstream demand volume, emotional contraction and phased disk oscillation, lithium carbonate prices will still maintain an endogenous force barbaric growth.