Hopes and worries of COP28: The global search for actions to deal with climate change is visible to the naked eye

From Abu Dhabi in the Persian Gulf to Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman, the UAE, a country between the sea and the desert, is a reflection of humanity's shared dilemmas and challenges.

The UAE's 60-plus years of history is almost a microcosm of the rapid development of human society in the more than 200 years after the Industrial Revolution – fossil fuels have brought great wealth, but they have also fallen into the huge "trap" that they have dug themselves.

Climate change caused by burning fossil fuels is causing disasters around the world, and the Middle East is one of the biggest victims: hot summers are becoming increasingly unbearable and leading to persistent extreme droughts, and port cities built on deserts face deadly threats from rising sea levels.

Even in the UAE, the energy transition is considered a must. The world's fifth-largest oil producer has just completed the world's largest single solar power plant, generating enough electricity to power nearly 200,000 homes and reducing carbon emissions by 2.4 million tonnes per year. Its main builder, UAE clean energy giant Masdar, is also the world's second-largest clean energy developer.

Although renewable energy is growing at an unprecedented rate, the reality is that most countries around the world still need fossil fuels.

This tension was amplified by the upcoming COP28 climate conference in the United Arab Emirates on November 30, when this year's president, Sultan Al Jaber, is both the CEO of the UAE's largest state-owned oil company (ADNOC) and the head of Masdar, the country's largest solar energy company.

"Expectations are so high, but confidence is so low. Jaber said.

As the hottest year on record draws to a close, world leaders are once again poised to come together to discuss how humanity should respond to the growing climate crisis. However, the conference has not yet begun, and the conflict of interests brought about by Jaber's identity has caused many people to cast a "vote of no confidence", and the current geopolitical turmoil caused by the military conflict between Israel and Kazakhstan and Russia and Ukraine has also cast a shadow on international cooperation.

As in previous years, a number of major issues will be discussed during the lengthy two-week session. The first is to assess the "global stocktake" since the 2015 Paris Agreement and form a new action resolution, the second is to implement the operation of the "loss and damage" fund for climate disasters established last year, how to develop a roadmap for the energy transition will be one of the most hotly debated topics at the conference, and whether the consensus reached by the two most important countries on the eve of the conference will inject enough impetus to dispel the gloom will be the main points of interest at COP28.

The United Nations' 2023 Emissions Gap Report, released on November 20, is a stark reminder that while countries around the world are taking more concrete steps than ever before to tackle climate change, they are not doing enough. We are moving far faster than we can afford to change the climate. Limiting warming to 2°C by 2030 would require a 28% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and a 42% reduction in 1.5°C.

This year, for the first time, The Paper will send special reporters to the site of the United Nations Conference on Climate Change. Before the official opening of this conference, please follow our preview report to preview the "preview" of this year's conference. If UN Secretary-General António Guterres said at the Climate Ambition Summit in New York in September that "humanity has opened the gates of hell", then every COP is a slam brake on our efforts to avoid hell.

Disputed hosts

COP28, the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is the most important event of the year when world leaders and all sectors of society come together to discuss the fight against the climate crisis.

This year, COP28 will be held from November 30 to December 12 in Expo City, Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The Expo 2020 venue in Dubai South has been described as a "future-focused mini-city". Organizers say this year's attendance could surpass that of 2009 in Copenhagen, reaching a record 80,000. Hundreds of world leaders, senior officials and negotiators, as well as observers, media and climate activists from all walks of life, will attend.

But as early as last year, after the announcement of the host country, many environmental groups and commentators worried that the time to step up efforts to curb the use of fossil fuels was needed at a time when the global climate crisis was getting worse. And with the CEO of one of the world's leading oil companies, which is still investing heavily in fossil fuel extraction, to chair the world's most important climate summit, "the conflict of interest is obvious".

In interviews with Time magazine and The Guardian, Sultan Jaber responded to the skepticism: "I'm not the obvious (welcome) choice, but I'm someone who can put fossil fuel companies at the table and talk about how to 'phase out' use." ”

On various occasions, Sultan Jaber has tried to make his position as clear as possible, despite the constant calls to stop using fossil fuels, in order to ensure global energy security, the world cannot be separated from the current energy system and fossil fuels will continue to be used until we succeed in building a new energy system. However, countries, rich and poor, must accelerate the orderly transition from oil and gas to clean energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydrogen to avoid the catastrophe brought about by climate change.

"What I want is a solution, not an alarmist. I want to strike a balance between emotion and reason. He said. It is foreseeable that the controversy surrounding Jaber and the UAE will continue throughout the conference.

First global stocktake

The first focus of this year's COP28 is to complete the first Global Stocktake (GST). The so-called global stocktake is to review the progress made by countries around the world in tackling climate change since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, and set the next round of targets.

The 2015 Paris Agreement set the important goal of limiting global warming to below 2°C and limiting it to 1.5°C. Since the beginning of this year, there have been a number of months and calendar days that have briefly exceeded the 1.5°C warming target (although this does not mean that the Paris Agreement's long-term average warming target has been breached).

According to Carbon Brief, a climate specialist media, the inventory includes more than 170,000 pages of documents from governments, businesses and civil society groups, as well as more than 252 hours of minutes of meetings and discussions to assess the results of collective global action to curb climate change. The core conclusion of the Global Stocktaking Report, which was first released by the United Nations in September, is that while some progress has been made since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, the world is still far from reducing emissions to limit temperature rise to 2°C and 1.5°C.

Yuan Ying, head of Greenpeace China, an international environmental organization that has been following the climate conference for a long time, believes that after the global inventory report came out, countries have different opinions on the conclusions, so there will be some differences in the interpretation of the global inventory results, and how to reach a consensus is worth observing in the first week of COP28.

And the point of taking stock is more than just a review of progress. It is more important to urge States to reflect on their efforts so far, to accelerate their actions, and to outline future actions that should be agreed upon by all parties to form the text of the resolution of the conference.

"There is still a gap in reducing carbon emissions in the short term, and we need to do more to get us on the path to carbon neutrality. Lin Mingche, director of the China Energy Transition Program at the Natural Resources Defense Council, told The Paper.

In the lead-up to COP28, governments have submitted their proposals on how to accelerate climate action in the future. These include phasing out fossil fuels, tripling renewable energy capacity, and providing more climate finance to developing countries. Eventually, the focus of negotiations will be on what will make it into the General Assembly resolution document.

美国环保协会北京代表处碳市场主任刘洪铭告诉澎湃新闻，各国可借助First global stocktake的机会，就具有重大气候效益的议题进行磋商，例如通过国际市场机制合作应对气候变化、减少甲烷排放、积极部署可再生能源和电动汽车、加强建设基于自然的气候解决方案。各国围绕这些具有高减排潜能的议题开展合作，将大大有助于缩小与《巴黎协定》之间的排放差距。

Cooperation between China and the United States will be key

When it comes to climate change, nothing is more important than between China and the United States. The solidarity and cooperation between the two countries will inject important momentum into the climate conference. The simple reason is that if the world's two largest emitters of greenhouse gases can agree to cooperate to tackle the climate crisis, then other countries will be more willing to follow suit.

Ahead of the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris in 2015, the United States and China agreed on the historic goals of the Paris Agreement, which played an important role in the adoption of the agreement that year.

Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Center at the Asia Society Policy Institute, who witnessed the negotiation process in Paris at the time, told The Paper that the communication between China and the United States on key and sensitive issues in the closing stage of the conference is very noteworthy. Further coordination or tacit mutual trust between China and the United States is crucial for the entire conference.

就在COP28举办前不久，中美发布了阳光之乡声明，提到两国将积极参与《巴黎协定》后的First global stocktake，致力于共同努力并与其他缔约方一道，以协商一致方式达成全球盘点决定，并支持主席国阿联酋成功举办COP28。这一积极表态算得上是此次大会为数不多的“积极信号”之一。

Zou Ji, CEO and President of Energy Foundation China, a veteran climate expert who has worked on China's climate talks, believes that it is not only necessary but possible for China and the United States, the two largest economies and greenhouse gas emitters, to leverage their respective strengths and work together. This is expected to make fundamental contributions to the global multilateral climate process in terms of international political leadership, scientific and technological research and development capabilities, reducing emission reduction costs with economies of scale, realizing the industrialization of green and low-carbon technologies with strong manufacturing, and supporting green investment with green finance.

Zou Ji believes that although China and the United States have been competing and playing games around traditional core interests, including economic development and national security, in recent years, the climate and environmental interests of the two sides, with the response to the global climate crisis as the core, have gradually become the common interests of China and the United States and the world, and the two sides are forming some basic consensus, and cooperation has become the right choice for the practice of China-US relations.

"The climate crisis poses a comprehensive challenge to the survival and development of all mankind, and no country is immune to it. And climate action is creating new opportunities and new momentum, and countries can achieve more resilient economic prosperity from climate change mitigation and green transition. Zou Ji said.

It is worth noting that China and the United States mentioned in the Sunshine Land statement that the two countries will join the UAE in inviting countries to participate in the "Methane and Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Summit" to be held during COP28.

Methane has long been an overlooked greenhouse gas. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), methane accounts for about 16%-20% of the long-lasting greenhouse gas warming effect. And this greenhouse gas exists in the atmosphere for a much shorter period of time than carbon dioxide (only about 10 years), and tackling the methane problem is considered "the fastest opportunity to slow global warming".

Cooperation on methane emissions reduction could be a major takeaway from the climate conference. As the world's largest emitter of methane, China included all greenhouse gases, including methane, in its 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for the first time in the statement. The European Union has also recently agreed to severely limit methane emissions from fossil fuels, including imports. The United States plans to focus on promoting large-scale global restrictions on methane emissions at COP28.

Energy transition: first establish and then break

One of the most controversial and focused topics at the conference was the debate over the push for "phase-down" or "phase-out" of fossil fuels, and whether the use of "abatement" technologies (capturing and storing greenhouse gas emissions from energy use) could be an "exemption" from the continued use of fossil fuels.

Since the final resolution of COP26 in 2021 first mentioned the phase-down of coal power and the phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, the future of fossil fuels, which is at the heart of climate change, has been in the spotlight.

At the COP27 summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in 2022, support for the decision to phase out all fossil fuels gained momentum, with around 80 countries joining it. However, the relevant content was not included in the final General Assembly resolution. This year, some countries have made it clear that they will prioritize phasing out fossil fuels altogether, while others have stressed that they are only willing to phase them down, or reject the idea altogether. Others have set more specific targets, such as ending coal or fossil fuel subsidies.

On this sensitive issue, COP28 President-elect Jaber has made a subtle change in his statement, saying for the first time at the UN climate talks in Bonn in June that "a gradual reduction in the demand and supply of all fossil fuels is inevitable and necessary." But the world is not ready to completely abandon oil and gas. We need to face reality," he said. "We cannot remove fossil energy from the current energy system until a new energy system is built. ”

"The main disagreement between countries on the phase-down or phase-out of fossil fuels is the question of timing and how quickly the goals needed to stop global warming can be reached," Hayashi said. Understandably, countries are concerned about maintaining energy security and economic development. Renewable energy, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and other technologies are becoming the driving forces that will power our societies and economies in the future, so as countries make progress in transitioning to these green energy technologies, they will be more willing to set targets to phase down or phase out fossil fuels. ”

Most observers agree that this topic is unlikely to reach consensus at COP28, given that more than 80% of the world's energy is still generated by burning fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas).

However, on the issue of energy transition, a consensus is emerging in more and more countries that countries should seek to "establish first and then break".

In September this year, the G20 summit issued a declaration agreeing to triple the global installed renewable energy capacity by 2030, or a target of 11 billion kilowatts. The United States and China recently explicitly support these goals in the Sunnylands Statement on Enhancing Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis, and "plan to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy in both countries sufficiently from 2020 levels between now and 2030 to accelerate substitution of kerosene, oil and gas power generation so that meaningful absolute reductions in emissions from the power sector can be expected to peak in the wake of the peak."

"This shows that the two countries have further expanded their consensus on the logical relationship between 'first standing' and 'last breaking' and strategic steps in the energy transition strategy, and it also means that the global green industry will stimulate new demand and create higher-scale benefits under the leadership of China and the United States." Zou Ji analyzed.

Li Shuo also agreed, "To find a solution to the energy transition at COP28, it is necessary to follow this logic of first establishing and then breaking, improving renewable energy, improving energy efficiency and reducing fossil energy, all of which are not discussed in a vacuum, and there should be a sequential relationship between them, which may be able to win the support of more countries." ”

Fang Li, chief representative of the Beijing Representative Office of the World Resources Institute, said that China has good prerequisites for renewable energy, wind and solar energy in the future, and that China's installed renewable energy capacity has surpassed that of coal power in 2022, and Europe and the United States are also making rapid progress, and we have entered a "new era of competitiveness".

Money! money! money!

The conclusion of the 2015 Paris Agreement marked the first time that mankind has reached a high level of consensus on a comprehensive response to climate change. However, in recent years, especially in negotiations between developing and developed countries, countries have engaged in fierce exchanges over key issues such as climate finance, and the contradictions between the North and the South have been widening.

More than two-thirds of global emissions currently come from developing countries, which are rapidly increasing their use of fossil fuels to lift themselves out of poverty. Many of these countries are burdened with heavy debt burdens and the energy transition is becoming more difficult, with renewable energy projects in places like South Asia or Sub-Saharan Africa potentially costing several times as much as those in the United States or Europe.

If we sum up the most common demands of developing countries on the climate crisis, it must be: money, money, a lot of money. Countries most responsible for climate change should provide economic assistance to those most affected and with the highest costs of adaptation, an issue that has plagued climate negotiations for nearly 20 years.

At Copenhagen in 2009, developed countries pledged to provide $100 billion a year in climate finance to developing countries by 2020 to support climate action. This promise has never been fulfilled to date.

Even if the pledge is kept, $100 billion will not be enough to support poorer countries to decarbonize their economies and adapt to climate change. At recent climate conferences, developing countries have repeatedly called for a substantial increase in international financial assistance from current levels and for new sources of public and private capital to be better allocated to low-income countries. It is almost certain that these issues will be raised again at COP28.

At the Bonn meeting in June, some developing countries even made it clear that they did not want to discuss emissions reductions unless they gave equal importance to financial support.

Liu Hongming, director of carbon markets at the Environmental Defense Fund's Beijing office, said that the voluntary carbon market would be one of the potentially effective ways to solve this problem, and high-quality carbon credits could guide investment and accelerate global climate progress. A well-designed voluntary carbon market can effectively channel finance to support climate action in developing countries, promote the energy transition, protect forests, and promote the development of emission reduction technologies.

And another major issue at COP28 about money is the operation of the "loss and damage fund". 

The decision to set up the fund, under decades of pressure from developing countries, was widely regarded as one of the major achievements of last year's COP27. After the summit, the "Transition Committee", made up of government officials from around the world, was tasked with agreeing on the framework of the fund. This includes deciding who will pay, who can take it, and where it will be spent.

In the negotiations since last year, the deep differences between developed and developing countries have been on the show. Developing countries do not want the fund to be housed in the U.S.-led World Bank, but want all developing countries to have access to it, financed mainly by donations from developed countries.

At the same time, developed countries want to ensure that the burden of contributions to the Fund is shared by the private sector, humanitarian groups and developing countries such as China and Saudi Arabia.

Eventually, earlier this month, there was a weak consensus among country representatives, including concessions from developing countries on the Fund's temporary trusteeship with the World Bank for the first four years and voluntary payments to the Fund. The European Union and the United States have also indicated their readiness to contribute to the fund.

For many climate activists who have followed the COP year after year, this year's conference may still be lackluster. Because whether each COP will have an impact depends on many factors, including the political will of leaders, financial resources, and opposition from fossil fuel companies and other vested interests.

But every climate conference is an opportunity, and while the future is difficult, at least the direction is clear. With the rapid development of energy efficiency, renewable energy, and alternative clean fuels, fossil fuels are likely to peak and decline rapidly in the near future. The whole world is about to usher in a seismic change.