What are the considerations behind the UAE's attempt to lead the climate agenda?

As the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) approaches, the role of the UAE presidency is in the spotlight.

In recent years, the oil-rich and deep-pocketed Gulf oil producer has been ambitious to push the climate agenda.

"The climate initiative has enabled the UAE to project an image of a progressive, socially responsible country, distinguishing it from traditional Gulf energy exporters. Steven Wright, an associate professor in the Department of Middle East Studies at Hamad Bin Khalifa University in Qatar, told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn).

However, questions continue to be raised about the ability of the UAE, which continues to rely on fossil fuels for exports and new upstream investment, to take on the overarching agenda of leading global action on climate change. Since the announcement in January that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company CEO Sultan al-Jaber would be chairman-elect, there have been voices of skepticism that the fox is in charge of the chicken coop.

In April, the Guardian newspaper quoted experts from analyst group Climate Action Tracker as saying that the UAE is still pushing ahead with plans to increase fossil fuel production, which is inconsistent with the climate goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and runs counter to its "net zero" commitments.

According to an audio recording exclusively revealed by The New York Times, during a meeting earlier this year, the UAE's hired PR communications director said "the UAE needs a strategy to fend off its critics." Both COP28 speakers and the UAE's Ministry of Foreign Affairs declined to comment. Still, this unverified recording is to the point: as the COP28 presidency, the preservation and enhancement of the UAE's reputation is of great political importance.

Steven Wright noted that the UAE must balance economic interests with climate policy. "The UAE's climate initiative aims to advance national interests, but also reflects an awareness of the changing global energy dynamics, ultimately in using climate action as a tool to increase its geopolitical influence. ”

Wright stressed that substantial emissions reductions, not just pledges, will determine whether the UAE becomes a true sustainability leader.

The UAE is "far ahead".

As traditional energy producers, the UAE and other Gulf countries have been facing intense pressure from the West on climate change. Therefore, COP28 has become a rare opportunity for it to take the initiative on related issues.

"Under the pressure of climate change, low-carbon energy transition is the general trend, the UAE and other Gulf oil-producing countries in the development of solar energy, hydrogen energy and other clean energy, in the oil and gas production, transportation and consumption of new energy, the use of new energy, new technology to reduce carbon emissions, emphasizing the sustainable energy transition path, to maintain their power in the global energy field. Zou Zhiqiang, a researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies at Fudan University, pointed out to The Paper.

The UAE was one of the early countries to promote energy transition and economic diversification practices. The economic diversification of emirates such as Dubai is a pioneer and model for the Middle East, and the International Renewable Energy Organization, which was established in 2009, is headquartered in Abu Dhabi. In October 2021, the UAE was the first Middle Eastern country to announce the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, leading the trend of regional countries participating in the global response to climate change, accelerating the application of carbon reduction technologies in the field of traditional energy production, vigorously developing new energy sources such as solar energy and hydrogen energy, and promoting international cooperation in energy transition.

In fact, several powerful countries in the region have already begun their domestic new energy transition, trying to gradually wean themselves off oil, and in recent years, they have also actively led the climate and energy issues on the international stage.

"Countries in the Middle East are all vying for a voice in the field of climate change and new energy, and perhaps the UAE's transition has been the most successful, with the national economy largely moving away from fossil fuel exports. Sun Degang, director and researcher of the Center for Middle East Studies at Fudan University, told The Paper. In 2022, the UAE's oil and gas sector has fallen to about 30% of the country's GDP, according to the Al-Monitor news website.

The New York Times has published an article pointing out that the UAE is already far ahead of neighboring oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in terms of economic diversification, and the UAE is already a regional hub for finance, logistics and tourism.

Still, this leading position does not seem to have earned it widespread trust. The UAE remains the third-largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the current plans to increase production make the country's climate leadership attempt unconvincing. According to public information, under the leadership of Jaber, the board of directors of Abu Dhabi Oil Company announced last year that it would advance capacity expansion from 2030 to 2027 and approve capital expenditure of 150 billion US dollars (about 1,073.46 billion yuan) in the five years to 2027.

Becoming a "hub" connecting the inside and outside

"The climate efforts of the Gulf countries are both homogeneous and competitive. Sun Degang said to The Paper. In 2021, Saudi Arabia launched the "Green Saudi Initiative" and the "Green Middle East Initiative", which will plant 10 billion trees in the coming decades. Egypt hosted COP27 in 2022.

Perhaps the UAE can be proud of its role as a regional hub in the Quad in the field of new energy technologies.

"In terms of ties with Western powers, the UAE, the United States, India, and Israel are the Middle East's version of the 'Quad', and the UAE wants to play the role of a high-tech hub in the Gulf region. Sun Degang pointed out that in the field of new energy, the United States has technology, India has a market, Israel wants to become a representative of the eastern Mediterranean, and the United Arab Emirates wants to become a representative of the Gulf region.

It is worth mentioning that the UAE is not only building an east-west "hub" within the region, but also actively seeking a global "link" between the north and the south. On the one hand, as a wealthy country with abundant funds, the UAE actively maintains relations with various major powers and hopes to have a certain say in the international community. On the other hand, the UAE is also actively acting as a spokesperson for the Global South, emphasizing that it is a developing country, and although its per capita GDP is not low, it mainly relies on energy, finance, and shipping, so it pays attention to topics that are relevant to developing countries, such as climate justice.

"With COP28, the UAE will be a strong advocate for climate finance, seeking to be a bridge and link between the Global North and the Global South, rich and poor. "By showing that the country is adapting to the times in the field of climate change and keeping pace with the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the UAE hopes to change its image in the international community." ”

From a competitive point of view, both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are in the stage of transition from traditional energy to new energy, Sun Degang said, "Both countries want to become leaders in the field of new energy, and both want to become undertakers in the new energy industry chain of Western powers." ”

Zou Zhiqiang told The Paper that in recent years, the competition between the UAE and Saudi Arabia in economic development and transformation, regional hub construction, and regional hotspot affairs has intensified, and the two sides are secretly wrestling and competing with each other has become increasingly obvious, and both sides are unwilling to cooperate with each other's large-scale international activities, which undoubtedly affects the effect of regional cooperation and related activities.

Steven Wright told The Paper that major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia want to continue to maximize oil and gas profits, but vulnerable countries are urging rich countries to speed up emissions reductions and more climate finance. The UAE will need skilled diplomacy to bridge the different interests at COP28, such as a transition plan that could facilitate the integration of renewable energy with hydrocarbon exports.

"If the UAE manages its priorities well, COP28 could spur important climate progress in the Middle East and cement its reputation as a leader. Wright noted that ahead of the conference, the UAE had taken the lead in reaching renewable energy agreements with the European Union and the United States, indicating the UAE's growing influence on global environmental issues. "The UAE's position at COP28 offers an opportunity to influence climate policy and has the potential to strengthen ties with nearby countries and promote cooperation with other Gulf countries on sustainable development. ”

"Oil-producing countries should join the negotiations"

John Kerry, the US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate Change, has stated that "it is very important to include oil-producing countries in the UN climate negotiations". Wright said the Middle East's abundant fossil fuel resources make the region's participation in global climate action indispensable. "However, dependence on oil and gas exports breeds different interests between producer and consumer countries. Through its climate finance pledges, the UAE has demonstrated its awareness of the needs of developing countries. ”

"As the COP28 presidency, the UAE offers an opportunity to bridge differences by spearheading pragmatic solutions. While outspoken calls for a complete abandonment of hydrocarbons may alienate regional producers, the UAE can advocate for a transition path that integrates new technologies such as renewable energy and blue hydrogen production. Wright said.

In the view of COP28 President Jaber, driving the green energy transition is not a threat to the UAE, but a unique opportunity for the country to leverage its expertise and financial resources. As Karen Young, a senior fellow at the Institute of Middle East Studies, a Washington-based research organization, told The New York Times, there is a business behind the UAE's net-zero emissions goal – treating state-owned oil and gas producers as enablers, not hinders, of solutions.

According to a report by Middle Eastern media Gulf Today on November 17, UAE Minister of Climate Change and Environment Mariam Bint Mohammed AlMheiri (Mariam Bint Mohammed AlMheiri) said on the 16th when introducing a comprehensive action plan to achieve the 2050 net-zero goal that the UAE's net-zero emissions strategy is expected to create about 2 million new jobs in industries such as solar, batteries and hydrogen, contribute about 3% of GDP, and increase export opportunities.

Mariam explained that the UAE's sustainability journey has taught us that climate action can be a powerful catalyst for economic growth and opportunity, create new sustainable jobs, fast-track technology, and create a forward-looking economy based on sustainable foundations. The 2050 Net-Zero Strategy aims to be the country's socio-economic springboard. She stressed the importance of collaboration between federal and local governments, the private sector and communities to help the UAE achieve its goals in each sector.

Sun Degang pointed out that oil companies in Gulf countries such as the United Arab Emirates are seizing the business opportunities brought by the global energy transition to oil companies by participating in COP28 to raise funds. Many companies are also putting carbon reduction in their advertising to show a more environmentally friendly corporate image.

"This approach can be seen as a positive marketing strategy," Firas Hassan, Chinese editor of Emirates News Agency, told The Paper, "reflecting the growing public concern about climate change." This practice may be aimed at raising the company's social responsibility profile and attracting more consumers who are concerned about environmental issues. ”

Promises need to be delivered slowly

Oil-producing countries are still hampered if they want to further raise their voice on climate issues. Sun Degang believes that the existing challenges can be boiled down to two points: many Middle Eastern countries have not yet mastered new energy technologies, and most oil-producing countries have not yet moved away from their dependence on fossil fuels.

The COP28 climate conference will help to awaken environmental awareness in the UAE, and there are high hopes for the growing climate participation of civil society.

Elyazia Al Hosani, director of the Trends Research & Advisory Media Communications Office, an independent private think tank in the UAE, told The Paper: "As a private sector, we are transforming our research into green research to better serve the sustainable development sector. We're going to COP28 and we're going to do two things – first, we're going to create a 100% sustainable pavilion. Second, we will co-host the second or third annual meeting with the Atlantic Council to discuss sustainable development and the future of today's world. ”

Steven Wright argues that the key to the Gulf oil producers' leadership of climate initiatives is how to balance the economic interests of the upstream oil industry with high-profile climate goals. If the challenges surrounding reliance on fossil fuel revenues are effectively addressed, resilient Middle Eastern countries can drive collaborative decarbonization.

"Given that the UAE has so far taken very limited concrete actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions domestically, there are still some doubts and doubts about its climate commitments. "If the UAE fails to capitalize on this opportunity, it could reinforce the perception that the UAE's climate efforts lack real long-term substantive impact and commitment that goes beyond rhetoric and PR." ”

The Middle East has huge renewable energy potential, especially solar and wind. Regional cooperation is essential to make the most of these opportunities for economic diversification. Joint infrastructure projects, technology transfer, and strategies for joint adaptation to climate impacts can accelerate sustainable progress. Qatar, for example, has pledged to invest billions of dollars abroad in renewable energy projects, highlighting a pattern. Further climate development finance, such as through the UAE's Energy Transition Accelerator Financing Platform, could help the global transition.

"Positive Middle Eastern countries can help shape a global mindset that aligns climate justice with economic needs. But seizing these opportunities effectively requires overcoming entrenched hydrocarbon dependence. "Innovation policies and regional coordination are essential to manage the socio-economic impacts of the transition while phasing out dependence on fossil fuel revenues." The rewards of regional economies and global sustainable development make this transformation imperative. ”