Liu Yiyang, deputy secretary-general of the China Photovoltaic Association: I think that the industry has entered a "cold winter" is an excessive worry

Recently, the price of the photovoltaic industry chain has fallen sharply, which has triggered many discussions in the industry about the future development of the industry.

"Normal market volatility is good for the industry. On November 3, Yibin City, Sichuan Province held a conference on the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry, Liu Yiyang, deputy secretary-general of the China Photovoltaic Association, said at the meeting.

Liu Yiyang believes that the current industry is overly focused on short-term fluctuations and ignores long-term certainty. The current fluctuations, the survival of the fittest in the photovoltaic industry, and the elimination of the false and the true are actually extremely beneficial to technological progress, cost reduction and efficiency increase. After this fluctuation, enterprises that do not have technology, brand competitiveness, and quick money can be cleared soon, which is conducive to the reshuffle of the industry.

"China's PV has ushered in the best period of development in history, but it is still facing severe challenges while it is full of opportunities. Liu Yiyang said.

He pointed out that in China, the photovoltaic industry has been guided by a high degree of certainty in future expectations, and the expansion scale of all links has increased significantly year-on-year, the degree of competition is intensifying, and various voices such as the serious surplus of the external industrial chain are changing one after the other.

Under the expectation of excess, the price of the photovoltaic industry chain has fallen sharply in recent days.Polysilicon dropped by nearly 20% in two weeks.The price of the entire industrial chain has collapsed, and the current bidding price of modules is even less than 1 yuan/W.

Liu Yiyang said in an interview with Jiemian News and other media that some voices in the industry believe that photovoltaic has entered a "cold winter", which is an excessive worry, and the profits of most companies in the first three quarters have hit a record high.

In the first three quarters of this year, with the exception of polysilicon companies, whose net profit declined due to the high base of their previous performance, the performance of most cell and module companies continued to grow positively. Among the four major module leaders, except for LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH), the net profit growth rate is more than 100%.

"The substitution of new energy for traditional energy is one of the few international consensus, and photovoltaic is the most substitutional, and China is fully profitable. In the future, whether it is domestic or international, the demand will be a sea of stars. It's just that the supply is too fast at the moment. Liu Yiyang said.

He believes that when the price of the industrial chain is reduced, it will drive demand. When photovoltaics are combined with other forms of energy storage, they will greatly replace traditional energy sources. Especially in developing countries, photovoltaic can help them skip the stage of establishing traditional large power grids and traditional energy sources, and directly evolve to a green and sustainable power grid form. Especially under the Belt and Road Initiative, China will help more developing countries build competitiveness in the field of new energy.

Liu Yiyang highly affirmed the development of the photovoltaic industry in the first three quarters of this year.

"Under the trend of global carbon neutrality and energy transition, China's photovoltaic industry has ushered in new historical development opportunities. In the first three quarters, China's photovoltaic industry continued to achieve rapid development. Liu Yiyang said that from January to September, the domestic output of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and cell modules increased by more than 70% year-on-year.

In terms of exports, from January to September, China's exports of silicon wafers, cells and modules increased by 88.3%, 74.3% and 33% year-on-year respectively.

On the application side, according to Liu Yiyang, from January to September, the newly installed capacity of domestic photovoltaics has exceeded 128.94 GW, a year-on-year increase of 140%, and it far exceeded last year's all-time high in three quarters. At the same time, the application of N-type products continues to expand, and the technology shows a trend of a hundred flowers.

Liu Yiyang also mentioned in his speech at the conference that in terms of foreign competition, countries have introduced supporting policies to support the manufacturing industry due to the need to develop local supply chains, especially recognizing the importance of photovoltaics to the fourth energy revolution in the future, and at the same time introduced some restrictive decisions to curb the global competition of China's photovoltaics, and the low-carbon development trend of the industrial chain has also put forward higher requirements for China's photovoltaics.

"Overseas currently accounts for 60% of China's PV market, and the proportion may be higher in the future. Liu Yiyang told Jiemian News and other media that photovoltaic going overseas is a trend, and the manufacturing industry going overseas is conducive to building the internal control and capabilities of Chinese enterprises and maintaining the leading position in their own industries.

In addition, going to sea is conducive to improving or maintaining a good diplomatic environment for the country, and mutual benefit and win-win results with countries such as Europe and the United States.

He said that in addition to Europe and the United States and other countries, the vast majority of the population in African developing countries, if the future of photovoltaic enterprises to lay a long-term development, the "Belt and Road" countries along the market space is huge.

Returning to the development of China's industry itself, Liu Yiyang suggested that if PV wants to go further, it must first rely on scientific and technological innovation, reduce costs and increase efficiency, and continuously improve the efficiency and cost of battery components.

Secondly, in the future, to establish a new power system, photovoltaic will cause a great restructuring of the power grid. In terms of power system, the form of virtual power plant will have greater prospects, the combination of photovoltaic new energy and digital, and the combination of "watts" and "bits".

Third, I hope that the system will adapt to the development of the times and make corresponding changes. "Some of the previous forms of contract energy management for centralized and distributed power stations may no longer be applicable, including the policy of distributed market entry should be clarified as soon as possible. Liu Yiyang said.