Year-end stocktaking | What are the "climate stories" for 2023?
2023 is coming to an end, and "climate" has been a buzzword for a year. There is a major shift in public perception of climate change, realizing that it is not a distant issue, let alone a topic that is "not about you".
What are some of the "climate stories" to watch in 2023? Let's take stock together.
A bitterly cold winter VS the hottest year on record
By the end of the year, the speculation that had been waiting for the dust to settle was waiting to be settled. 2023 will be the hottest year on record. Even the last decade has been the hottest on record.
This may be confirmed by the data recorded by ERA5: in the first 11 months of 2023, the global average temperature increased by 1.46°C compared to the 1850-1900 average, with July being confirmed as the hottest month on record. ERA5 is the fifth generation of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) dataset for the global climate from January 1950 to the present.
From December 14th to 17th, there was a large-scale cold wave process in China. With the arrival of this cold wave, people can't help but ask: why is the "warmest year" so cold?
Actually, this is not a contradiction. The National Climate Center responded: When we talk about the warmth of a certain year or month, we do not determine it by a single weather event, but by comparing the average temperature of the entire period of time, whether it is significantly higher or lower than the same period in history.
In other words, although the cold wave of winter came violently, it did not prevent this year from being the hottest.
In summer, the high temperature of 40°C or even above makes the air conditioner sell out; There is also continuous heavy rain, which washes out scenic spots and roads; When the winter cold wave comes, the waterfowl are almost frozen on the water...
Scientists have found that climate change plays a clear role in exacerbating the severity of extreme weather events.
We must realize that weather is no longer just some isolated piece of information, but a story of climate change.
UAE Consensus VS China's "Dual Carbon" Goals
The climate events of 2023 must be inseparable from the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on November 30. After consultations and negotiations, the conference reached an important milestone in reaching the "UAE Consensus" on a number of topics such as the first "global stocktake", mitigation, adaptation, finance, loss and damage, and just transition. These issues will affect the trends and developments in the climate field to a greater or lesser extent.
Progress on global climate action is now assessed in the first Global Stocktake. Under the current scenario where all NDCs are fully implemented, the average global temperature rise could be limited to 2.1°C to 2.8°C by 2100. Given the heightened climate challenges of global temperature rise to 2°C, the UAE Consensus is determined to further limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C.
For the first time, the UAE Consensus also mentions the phase-out of fossil fuels, calling on countries to "reduce their dependence on fossil fuels", scale up renewable energy, and accelerate the development of zero- and low-carbon technologies. Delegates agreed on a roadmap for the transition away from fossil fuels.
Finance is an important guarantee for tackling climate change and achieving a just transition. In terms of climate finance outcomes, COP28 mobilized more than US$85 billion for climate action. On the first day of the conference, a loss and damage fund of concern was agreed and funds raised. In addition, countries such as the United Arab Emirates have also put aside money to support the climate fund.
While the results may seem encouraging, the amount of money is far from sufficient to "pay" for the massive global climate action, and it is unclear when it will actually be delivered. However, it is gratifying to finally take another step forward.
In 2023, China actively participated in the international agenda and actions to address the climate crisis, and in November, China and the United States issued a statement on strengthening cooperation to address the climate crisis, which promoted the deepening of international issues and actions such as renewable energy development goals and methane and non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emission control. In addition, China has also carried out a series of cooperation with Germany, France and other European countries such as carbon neutrality centers and green industries. At COP28, China actively negotiated with all parties and promoted the consensus reached at the conference.
In 2023, China will make breakthroughs in the field of "dual carbon" in terms of policy, industry, technology and other aspects.
In April this year, 11 departments, including the National Standards Committee, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, jointly issued the "Guidelines for the Construction of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Standard System", which clarified the basic structure of the construction of the dual carbon standard system and put forward key construction tasks;
In July this year, the second meeting of the Central Committee for Comprehensively Deepening Reform deliberated and passed the "Opinions on Promoting the Dual Control of Energy Consumption and Gradually Shifting to the Dual Control of Carbon Emissions", which provides an institutional guarantee for actively and steadily promoting carbon peak and carbon neutrality.
In October this year, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued the National Carbon Peak Pilot Construction Plan, proposing to break the bottlenecks and constraints faced by green and low-carbon development, explore carbon peak paths for cities and parks with different resource endowments and development bases, and provide operable, replicable and scalable experience and practices for the whole country. and select 100 typical representative cities and parks across the country to carry out pilot construction of carbon peaking;
At a regular press conference in October, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the 2023 Annual Report on China's Policies and Actions to Address Climate Change.
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In addition to the increasingly detailed policies at the national level, China's energy transition will once again usher in a milestone node in 2023. According to the website of the National Energy Administration, in June this year, the cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy in China exceeded the 1.3 billion mark, reaching 1.322 billion kilowatts, surpassing thermal power for the first time in history. By the end of October, it exceeded 1.4 billion kilowatts, reaching 1.404 billion kilowatts, accounting for about 49.9% of the country's total installed power generation capacity.
China has made a major strategic decision to peak carbon dioxide emissions and achieve carbon neutrality, injecting strong impetus into the global response to climate change. China will continue to make new achievements in tackling climate change and gradually achieve the "dual carbon" goal.
Climate change vs. biodiversity
There is a deep interrelationship between climate and biodiversity. The rate of change in global average temperature and biodiversity loss is higher than at any time in human history, and continues to rise.
A few days ago, experts in the social sciences and natural sciences released the annual "10 New Insights in Climate Science" report. Article 5 mentions the importance of joint governance in addressing interconnected climate and biodiversity emergencies. This also means that we need more connections, both between governing bodies, between governance processes, etc., to be interconnected.
In December, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) updated its Red List of threatened species. The biggest difference between this list and previous ones is that this update of the IUCN Red List is the first time that climate change has a catastrophic impact on a single species or a single species, but on a global scale, based on a large-scale assessment.
从大西洋鲑鱼到绿海龟，从肯尼亚常见的大湖鳟到中亚的赛加羚羊......很多实实在在的事例表明，气候变化正在威胁越来越多的物种生存。我们不得不重新思考，气候变化带着的生物多样性危机。
In addition, there is another phenomenon that deserves attention: the disappearance of mountain glaciers is accelerating. Mountain glaciers have a shorter response time scale to changes in atmospheric forces than ice sheets, and nearly a quarter of sea level rise so far has been caused by melting mountain glaciers.
Rising sea levels not only cause inundation of land, coastal erosion and sea intrusion, but also increase the frequency of marine natural disasters, which change in the ocean flow field and wash away sand. The impact is the destruction of animal and plant habitats, and even the possibility of extinction of some plants and animals, and the possibility of a significant reduction in biodiversity, which can damage ecosystem function.
China has always attached great importance to the conservation of biodiversity. Contribute to the promotion and implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework by accelerating the improvement of policies and regulations on biodiversity conservation, continuously optimizing the spatial pattern of biodiversity conservation, strengthening biosecurity management and the protection of biological genetic resources, innovating mechanisms for sustainable use of biodiversity, strengthening law enforcement inspections and accountability, and comprehensively promoting public participation.
The road is long and the line is coming. In 2024, we must continue to work hard and never slack off!
