COP28: Dilemmas and breakthroughs

The latest report from the World Meteorological Organization states that 2023 is the hottest year on record in human history. This year, we not only ushered in record temperatures on Earth, but also saw various climate disasters occurring frequently.

Recently, towards the end of the year, countries gathered in Dubai to discuss how to tackle the growing climate crisis. With more than 70,000 participants, COP28 will be the largest climate change conference in history, and the expectations it carries will be the greatest. As the climate crisis accelerates, can COP28 lead humanity out of the climate dilemma?

November 30, 2023, Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The desert city welcomed visitors from all over the world, and a global climate conference kicked off.

President of COP28, Sultan Jaber: As you can see, the world has come to a crossroads.

When people think of Dubai, they always think of terms like oil, star-rated hotels and luxury goods. From November 30th, this city, located between the sea and the desert, is closely linked to the future destiny of mankind.

Simon Steele, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC Secretariat: If we don't follow our perceptions and signal the end of the fossil fuel era, we will have our own end.

It may seem paradoxical to talk about ending fossil fuels in places where fossil fuels are abundant, but it also reflects the climate dilemmas and challenges facing humanity today.

In the 60s of the last century, with the discovery of oil, the semi-nomadic society in this desert began to modernize.

From 1971, when the UAE declared independence from British protection, oil was the backbone of the country's economy until it became the world's fifth-largest oil producer.

The history of the UAE and Dubai is almost a microcosm of the rapid development of human society in the more than 200 years after the Industrial Revolution: fossil fuels such as oil and coal have brought great wealth, and the greenhouse gases produced by burning fossil fuels have also laid a huge "trap" for the future.

In 2023, humanity seems to have reached a turning point.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres: Climate change is just around the corner, it's scary, but it's just the beginning, the era of global warming is over, the era of global boiling has arrived, the air [becomes] unbreathable, the heat is unbearable.

In November, in the eastern province of Wasit in eastern Iraq, the Tigris River flows quietly.

Although it is already the rainy season, drought is enveloping the land. In an orchard in the town of Aziziyeh, due to drought and lack of water, farmer Abbas checks on the trees and prunes dead branches every day.

Sheiker Abbas, Iraqi fruit farmer: Fruit trees are starting to lose their leaves and dry up, all as a result of drought. My orchard is only a hundred meters away from the Tigris River, but if you look at the current situation in the orchard, it is all due to the lack of water.

Due to drought and lack of water, the Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture announced in September this year that it would stop rice cultivation throughout the country.

The drop in river water levels caused by the ongoing drought has also led to a reduction in local fisheries, forcing many aquaculture farms to close.

Yusuf Mohammed, Baghdad's fishmer: There are very few fresh fish now, either dead fish or fish that have been suffocated by lack of oxygen, there is not enough water to raise fish, and some of the water is polluted.

According to the United Nations report, Iraq is one of the five countries most affected by climate change. Other studies have reported that climate change is now a 25-fold increase in the likelihood of annual drought in Iraq.

Climate Action Iraq expects the country to experience a 65% reduction in precipitation by 2050 if the heat and drought continue.

On the one hand, there is a drought and water shortage, and on the other hand, there are floods.

Kenyan Allen: We can't live at home now, we have to sleep outside, we need medicine, blankets.

Heavy rainfall has led to the destruction of infrastructure in several parts of Kenya, leaving tens of thousands of people homeless.

Nature seems to be moody these days, with Kenya and other countries in East Africa suffering from severe drought last year and heavy rains this year.

Abdul Kadir, Somali victim: Our temporary shelter has been washed away, and now there are children missing, and we don't know if they are dead or alive.

On November 17, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said severe flooding had displaced tens of thousands of families in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia, putting lives and livelihoods at risk.

Hodder, UN Adviser on Climate Security and the Environment: It's a huge irony that people fled [last year] because of the drought and now because they are fleeing because there is too much water. The IPCC report makes it clear that this cycle of floods and droughts will continue, and there will be more in the future, unless we actually take steps to reduce similar situations on a global scale.

Scorching heat, drought, wildfires, torrential rains... These natural disasters are becoming more frequent in many parts of the world. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Taras said extreme weather events had become the "new normal".

On November 15, the World Meteorological Organization released its Greenhouse Gas Report: the global average concentration of carbon dioxide in 2022 was 50% higher than in pre-industrial times for the first time, and its concentration will continue to rise in 2023.

With new greenhouse gas concentrations at record highs and no end in sight to the upward trend, more extreme weather will follow.

Pettiri Taalas, Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization: The impact of climate change is different around the world, with more heat waves in Europe and a dramatic increase in glacier melting. There are also more droughts and floods in different years, with about half of the planet facing more floods and a third facing more droughts, and these negative trends will continue until 2060.

In the face of the sudden catastrophe brought about by climate change, no country is in the same boat, and no country is immune.

More than 6,500 wildfires have occurred so far this year, making 2023 the worst year ever for wildfires in Canada.

There was a traffic jam on Yellowknife's only highway, and people who had received emergency evacuation orders crowded the airport.

Evacuated Residents Teonsi: I've never seen anything like this, and I've never heard anyone predict that this will happen in my lifetime.

It's a race against time, with wildfires a few miles north of Yellowknife, home to about 20,000 people.

And in Hawaii, the fires left little time to escape, and the resort island of Maui was reduced to a scorched earth in August.

Lawrence, head of a local non-profit organization: The land that raised us in Lahaina is now a piece of ashes.

Wildfires break out every year in Hawaii, but this year the fires are bigger than usual.

Scientists point out that climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

In fact, from last year's COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, to this year's COP28 in Dubai, the earth has witnessed a series of extreme weather events in the past year - record-breaking wildfires in Canada, extreme heat in Europe, floods in Libya, hurricanes in Myanmar, accelerated melting of Arctic ice...

UN Secretary-General António Guterres: Humanity has opened the gates of hell and the terrible heat is having a terrible impact.

On November 30, the opening day of the Dubai Climate Change Conference, the World Meteorological Organization released the "2023 Interim Report on the State of the Global Climate".

Pettiri Taalas, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization: The global average temperature (from the pre-industrial baseline) is 1.4 degrees Celsius higher, and this year is the hottest since 1850. We have also broken records for emissions of major greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, which are now 50% higher than they were before industrial levels.

According to Hansen, the "father of global warming research" and a professor at Columbia University in the United States, the rate of global warming is faster than predicted, and the speed of our actions is far from keeping up with the speed of climate change. UN Secretary-General António Guterres even issued this warning: "Humanity has opened the gates of hell. ”

In the face of the accelerating climate crisis, the world is expecting COP28 to "put the brakes" on global warming and achieve a breakthrough.

On November 28, Bill Gates, founder of the American Breakthrough Energy Fund, delivered a video speech on the eve of attending COP28.

Bill Gates: We're not meeting our near-term targets to reduce emissions, and that's definitely worrying.

The 2015 Paris Agreement stipulates that global average temperatures should be reduced by 28% by 2030 below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and by 42 percent by 1.5 degrees Celsius.

It can be said that global warming is a matter of the fate of all mankind.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1992, and since 1995, the annual Conference of the Parties has become the only international mechanism that allows almost all countries in the world to participate in controlling greenhouse gas emissions.

In 2015, the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) was held in Paris, France, and 196 parties signed the Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty. The agreement sets specific targets to limit the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Halfway between COP21 and 2030, the year of the targets, this year's global stocktake is like a report card to measure progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement.

The "global stocktake" is an important institutional design of the Paris Agreement, and the Dubai climate conference will conduct the first global stocktaking in eight years.

However, as early as September this year, the United Nations pointed out that the international community is still not on track to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.

In November, Canada said it would not meet the 2030 emissions reduction targets promised at the Paris summit.

Canada's Environment Commissioner DeMarco reported a 34 per cent reduction by 2030, rather than the 40 per cent that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had pledged.

Morris, MP, Green Party of Canada: What we've seen, Canada is the only G7 country whose emissions continue to rise above 1990 levels.

A fact that cannot be ignored is that it is precisely the developed countries represented by the G7 that bear an unshirkable historical responsibility for climate change, and at the same time have the strongest practical ability to deal with climate change.

Since the Industrial Revolution, developed countries have accounted for 70% of the world's total greenhouse gas emissions in the same period.

American TV host: With carbon emissions on the rise since the 20th century, can the relatively wealthy developed countries ask the developing countries to abandon coal after more than a century of fossil fuels?

In September this year, the first African climate summit was held in Kenya, and the world heard Africa's voice on climate change.

William Ruto, President of Kenya: This summit is very significant, and Africa's carbon emissions have been kept very low. But in disproportionateness, Africa is often mentioned when it comes to the climate crisis.

There is as much climate debt as there are emission reduction obligations. Therefore, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change clearly states the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities", and the Kyoto Protocol appropriates the corresponding national responsibilities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

American climate activist Genevieve: The richest 10% are responsible for the vast majority of emissions, and the top 1% of people, some of whom have an increased carbon footprint of more than 1,000 tons per year. We know that billions of people in Africa and the Global South have little to no carbon emissions, but they are the ones most vulnerable to climate change. The poorest suffer first, the deepest.

However, some developed countries have confused the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and have been putting pressure on developing countries, but they are unwilling to undertake their own emission reduction obligations.

Ismail, a researcher at the Political Department of the Egyptian General Information Agency: It would be unreasonable to make the vast number of developing countries that have just started or have achieved some development bear the same responsibility for controlling carbon emissions as those developed countries. Because these developed countries are more responsible for contributing to climate warming.

At the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, developed countries pledged to provide $100 billion a year in climate finance to developing countries by 2020, but according to OECD calculations, this pledge has not yet been fulfilled.

In fact, what is lacking in helping developing countries reduce emissions is not slogans, but practical actions and financial support.

In November 2023, Time magazine released the "TIME 100 Climate Influencers" list.

The list has always been known for its rigor, with a particular emphasis on "quantifiable action" rather than vague promises and visions.

This year, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of China's CATL, appeared on the list at the same time as Bill Gates.

Bill Gates, Founder of Breakthrough Energy Fund : In the transportation sector, we have seen a significant increase in demand for electric vehicles, and China has largely switched to electric buses.

CATL provides the world's largest number of low-emission power batteries, with a market share of about 37%, enabling new energy vehicles to achieve electrification and low emissions.

In fact, China is a doer in promoting global climate governance, not only leading the world in new energy vehicles, but also doing its best to provide support and assistance to other developing countries.

In Qatar, which is hot all year round, it has always been cool in the electric buses that shuttle through the city.

Local passenger Sujit: This is my first experience of an electric bus in Qatar, which is more safety-conscious, less polluting and very environmentally friendly than other buses.

This much-acclaimed electric bus comes from China.

Qatar is rich in oil and natural gas, and before China's electric buses entered, fuel vehicles were in a monopoly position, and there were basically no new energy vehicles.

In 2022, Qatar will take the opportunity of hosting the World Cup to actively promote the development of the new energy industry, and China, which has a leading edge in the new energy vehicle industry, has become a favored partner of Qatar.

Al-Obedli, Chief Operating Officer, Qatar National Transport Corporation: In line with Qatar's National Vision 2030, our goal is to replace our entire fleet, including buses and light vehicles, with energy-efficient and environmentally friendly vehicles.

At present, Qatar's pure electric buses account for 80% of its total buses, and these pure electric buses are made in China.

São José dos Campos, located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, is known for its aircraft manufacturing and scientific research and development.

In recent years, the city has continued to make efforts in the green transition, creating the "Green Line", Brazil's first all-electric urban bus rapid transit system.

Passenger Valdil: Wow, that's great, it feels like it's not in Brazil, it's like it's abroad.

The Green Line currently has 12 Chinese brand electric buses, and the operation of one Green Line electric bus can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by at least 184 tons per year, which is equivalent to planting 1,311 trees.

Director of the Transport Department of the City of São José dos Campos Rocha: We now have 101 bus lines [in the city], we are redesigning the entire bus network in the city, and we plan to buy another 400 electric buses to operate throughout the city, which is expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80%.

The export of Made in China and Chinese brands not only promotes the global green and low-carbon transformation, but also shares green dividends and common development and prosperity with the countries of the Belt and Road Initiative.

Walsh, Chief Scientist, International Center for Arctic Research: My understanding is that China is moving much faster in terms of energy efficiency and reducing its climate impact than many other countries, including the United States.

As the world's largest developing and developed country, China-US dialogue and cooperation are crucial to global climate governance.

In mid-November, during the San Francisco summit between China and the United States, the Sunshine Country Statement on Strengthening Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis was issued, marking that the two countries had once again reached a consensus on addressing the climate crisis and sent a signal of joint action.

Hu Bin, Research Director of Global Climate Governance, Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development, Tsinghua University: Every agreement reached between China and the United States before the climate conference will greatly promote the progress of the climate conference. For example, before the Paris Agreement, China and the United States reached a bilateral agreement in 2014 and 2015 to jointly address climate change, which played a great role in promoting the conclusion of the Paris Agreement.

In fact, there is ample scope for U.S.-China cooperation on climate change.

American climatologist Haus Faser: The cost of clean energy has dropped dramatically, with solar being 90 percent cheaper, wind 66 percent cheaper, and batteries 90 percent cheaper in the last decade. Electric vehicles account for about 14% of global new car sales, and more than 20% in places like China and Europe, and we are experiencing an energy transition.

In the opinion of experts, China and the United States will once again work together to lead climate cooperation, which will have a positive impact on COP28.

On November 30, the opening day of COP28, the General Assembly officially approved the "Loss and Damage" fund agreement, which has been committed by many countries to inject US$400 million, and the agreement will help developing countries vulnerable to climate change.

From COP1 in Berlin, Germany in 1995 to COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt in 2022, it can be said that almost all climate change conferences have been pinned on high hopes, but few have actually achieved breakthrough results. This is also the dilemma we face: climate negotiations are frequent, but consensus is faltering.

However, no country can afford to remain immune to the climate crisis, and panic should not be the answer. The only way out is to uphold multilateralism and fully promote a green and just transition under the framework of sustainable development.