LONGi Green Energy is the first time to confirm the mass production of TOPCon cells

During the critical period of photovoltaic technology iteration, every move of leading enterprises has attracted market attention.

On February 27, LONGi Green Energy (601012. SH) disclosed a record of investor relations activities, most notably the company's clarification that its Ordos battery project will adopt TOPCon technology in N-type technology to meet the needs of ground power station customers, and equipment installation is expected to begin in the third quarter of 2023.

This is the first time that LONGi Green Energy has publicly stated that it will promote the large-scale mass production of TOPCon technology route. This means that it took the lead in choosing mass production TOPCon in the selection of N-type technology route.

"In the early stage of TOPCon technology, the cost of equipment and production was high, so LONGi chose to launch TOPCon products at the right time and target centralized power stations. LONGi Green Energy responded to the interface news.

As the mainstream PERC technology in the market is gradually approaching the limit of efficiency, the photovoltaic industry has begun to deploy next-generation technologies. N-type technology belongs to the development direction of next-generation photovoltaic technology, which is mainly divided into TOPCon, heterojunction, IBC and other technical routes.

At present, the most discussed technologies in the industry are TOPCon and heterojunction technology. TOPCon technology is starting to emerge because it is better compatible with PERC production lines, and the cell production cost is lower and more commercially viable.

The industry believes that last year was the first year of mass production of TOPCon technology, and many photovoltaic companies have chosen this technology when expanding production. In 2021, JinkoSolar (688223. SH) has laid out the TOPCon battery technology roadmap and is the first to achieve large-scale mass production. By the end of last year, Jinko's N-type production capacity had reached 35 GW.

However, as a module leader, LONGi Green Energy has not made much market moves in TOPCon technology before, but launched its original Hi-MO 6 series products based on HPBC cell technology in November last year to face the distributed market.

HPBC battery technology is the abbreviation of composite passivated back contact battery, which is the result of the fusion of P-type TOPCon technology and IBC technology. LONGi Green Energy expects the company to ship 20-25 GW of HPBC in 2023.

"As early as a few years ago, LONGi believed that distributed PV has a huge market space, and based on the logic of not leading and not expanding production, it was the first to launch HPBC technology module products for distribution. LONGi Green Energy said to Jiemian News.

After in-depth research and judgment, the company believes that in the future, photovoltaic products will no longer be a product to win the world. LONGi Green Energy said.

Li Zhenguo, founder and president of LONGi Green Energy, also said in an interview with Jiemian News and other media that LONGi Green Energy has no restrictions on N-type and P-type technologies, and does not define HPBC cell technology as the ultimate product of photovoltaics.

In this exchange with investors, LONGi Green Energy also responded to its views on N-type and P-type PV products. The company said that it did not consider N-type and P-type as core considerations, mainly believing that the choice of products needs to be based on a balance between efficiency and cost, as well as multi-dimensional considerations such as long-term stability, scene integration and aesthetics.

At present, LONGi Green Energy has not yet determined the technical route of Xixian 50 GW cells, and the technical route for subsequent capacity expansion will be determined based on the company's R&D results.

In August 2022, LONGi Green Energy signed a supplementary agreement with the local government of Ordos on an investment cooperation agreement, changing the annual output of 20 GW of monocrystalline silicon rods and chips in the original agreement to 46 GW of monocrystalline silicon rods and slices, and the production capacity of 30 GW of high-efficiency monocrystalline cells and 5 GW of high-efficiency photovoltaic modules remained unchanged.

In January this year, LONGi Green Energy announced that it would continue to expand production and invest in the construction of a monocrystalline silicon wafer project with an annual output of 100 GW and a monocrystalline cell project with an annual output of 50 GW in Xixian New Area, Shaanxi Province, with an estimated total investment of 45.2 billion yuan. The project is expected to be put into operation in the third quarter of 2024 and reach production by the end of 2025.

LONGi Green Energy said that its N-type TOPCon cell technology has matured. In 2016, the company began to conduct research work on related technologies and set up a pilot line, and in 2021, it released the Hi-MO N module based on N-type TOPCON technology.

In addition to technology, LONGi Green Energy also responded to its views on the price of the industrial chain.

The company believes that since the beginning of this year, the price game of the photovoltaic industry chain has been fierce, and the overall price has declined compared with the fourth quarter of 2022. Affected by factors such as the continued shortage of energy supply and the improvement of photovoltaic economy, global demand has begun to be released in advance. Although short-term raw material price increases have had a certain impact on the release of demand, especially in price-sensitive markets, the overall demand has maintained a year-on-year growth trend.

LONGi Green Energy said that with the increase in the supply of raw materials, its production lines have increased the operating rate according to order changes, with the operating rate of wafer production lines increasing to about 90% and modules to more than 80%, and it is expected that wafer and module shipments will increase year-on-year this year.

The company believes that China will still be the world's largest incremental demand market in 2023, and with the price of the PV industry chain falling, the demand for ground-mounted power stations with very sufficient reserves will be significantly released, so it is expected that more than 50% of its module shipments will fall in the Chinese market.

According to the previous plan, in 2022, LONGi Green Energy's annual monocrystalline silicon wafer production capacity will reach 150 GW, monocrystalline cell production capacity will reach 60 GW, monocrystalline module production capacity will reach 85 GW, and the annual module shipment target will reach 50-60 GW.

LONGi Green Energy expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 to be 14.5 billion to 15.5 billion yuan, an increase of 60%-71% year-on-year, and the non-net profit to be 14 billion to 15.1 billion yuan, an increase of 59%-71% year-on-year.

As of 14 p.m. on February 28, LONGi's share price was 43.89 yuan, down 0.7%, with a market value of 332.677 billion yuan.