COP28 will be held tomorrow, four highlights worth paying attention to!

2023 could be the hottest year on record, and it has been a hot topic this year. The past decade has also been the hottest on record. The heat is not only a concern, but also a warning that the planet is facing a serious climate crisis.

The 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will be held tomorrow in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. After experiencing the hottest summer in the history of the Northern Hemisphere, the risk of extreme weather disasters and climate change has become even more prominent. All parties look forward to more consensus and more results at COP28 to jointly tackle the rise in global temperatures.

What are the important highlights of COP28? China Environment News reporters sorted out and interviewed relevant experts.

Aspect 1: The chairman of the conference is the CEO of the national oil company, and the "integrity" of the climate conference is questioned?

The UAE is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber is the CEO of the UAE's largest state-owned oil company (ADNOC).

It is precisely because of this identity that the "integrity" of this climate conference has been questioned. But in previous public remarks, Jaber said climate change is "a global challenge that requires a global solution from all stakeholders coming together." He called for a united, action-driven and inclusive UN Climate Change Conference to bring everyone "in the same direction" to achieve net-zero emissions sooner.

In fact, Jaber has more than 20 years of experience in the energy industry and has held many senior positions in the country, including founding CEO and Chairman of global energy pioneer Masdar Corporation.

In addition, the UAE has also made new energy a development priority, and in 2021 set a net-zero target for 2050, becoming the first oil country in the Persian Gulf to commit to eliminating greenhouse gas emissions from its borders. As one of the world's oil-dominant economies, the UAE's announcement of a net-zero target is truly a landmark move of the era.

The UAE's net-zero target, coupled with Jaber's identity, may be a better way for oil and gas industry bigwigs to sit down at COP28 and discuss the way forward.

Wu Changhua, China/Asia director at Rivkin's office and vice chairman of the Asia-Pacific Water Forum Executive Committee, said the oil and gas industry continued to be the object of accusations as "taken for granted". Since 2018, the oil and gas industry has earned a whopping $3.5 trillion per year. However, investment in clean energy is only 2.5% of total investment, accounting for only 1% of total global clean energy investment.

The International Energy Agency's latest report also reiterates the importance and urgency of reducing investment in the oil and gas industry. By 2030, about half of the oil and gas industry's capital expenditure should go to clean energy to ensure the Paris Agreement goals are met, and by 2030, global investment in fossil fuels will need to be reduced by $500 billion a year, while clean energy investment needs to increase by more than $2 trillion, Wu said.

Therefore, we must act urgently to reduce the use of fossil fuels, promote the development of renewable energy, and promote the efficient use of energy to mitigate the effects of climate change.

Hu Bin, director of global climate governance research at the Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development at Tsinghua University, believes that the UAE's hosting of COP28 is not only a favorable opportunity to enhance geopolitical influence, but also a development opportunity to promote the development of new energy and the transformation of the oil and gas industry.

Aspect 2: What will be the first "global stocktake" since the Paris Agreement?

This conference will be the first stocktaking of the progress made by countries around the world in achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. The significance of the stocktaking is not only to review and summarize past progress, but also to urge countries to step up their actions.

The Paris Agreement requires nearly 200 parties to update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years, each country's climate action plan to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts. Starting in 2023, the COP will conduct a global stocktake every five years.

It is reported that this year's Global Stock report has been released, which will serve as the basis for negotiations for COP28 participating countries. The report argues that current national efforts are still far from sufficient to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Even if the current commitments are implemented, the temperature will rise by 2.5 degrees Celsius within this century.

In November, the United Nations Environment Programme's 2023 Emissions Gap Report made it clear that global temperatures will rise by 2.5 to 2.9°C above pre-industrial levels unless countries step up their climate action and go further than existing pledges.

This shows that further action is needed to meet the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting temperature rise.

Hu Bin believes that there is still a gap in our understanding of the gap between China and the West, and instead of overemphasizing the ambition gap, it is better to implement climate action in a down-to-earth manner. If you just talk about ambition and not action, then there is no point. At this COP28 conference, how to achieve a balance between "action" and "ambition" is also an important expectation of this global inventory.

In addition, Hu Bin said that this global inventory is not an inventory of each country one by one, but an inventory of the overall global action. As a result of the projected stocktaking, there are still gaps in the strength, implementation and practice of existing commitments and the goals of the Paris Agreement. COP28 should be a moment to strengthen our collective resolve and strength to step up our actions and strengthen cooperation to keep us on track to uphold the Paris Agreement.

Wu speculated that the global stocktake of the conference would basically focus on boosting commitments and raising collective ambition to meet the current urgency. There is no requirement for countries to update their commitments, it will take about two years, and it is possible that at COP30, countries will have specific commitments for 2035.

Aspect 3: Will there be a breakthrough in climate finance, which has attracted much attention?

As early as the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, developed countries made a pledge to provide $100 billion a year in climate finance to developing countries by 2020, but so far it has not been fully fulfilled.

According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and later the Paris Agreement and the Glasgow Agreement, developed countries have the responsibility to provide a certain amount of financial support to developing countries to cope with climate change, improve their adaptive capacity and clean energy transition, and so on, based on the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities".

When it comes to climate finance, we have to mention the "loss and damage" fund.

Last year in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, the issue of "loss and damage" was on the agenda of the 27th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27) for the first time. This is also a major step forward. COP27 finally decided to establish a "loss and damage" fund caused by climate disasters.

One of the expectations and highlights of COP28 is the establishment of a "loss and damage" fund to provide relief and rebuilding to poor areas that have been hit hard by climate disasters. "It is currently estimated that this will require up to hundreds of billions of pounds of funding from a variety of sources, including the private sector and government. But very few countries have made commitments. Wu Changhua said that how to implement this fund has become a major focus of COP28.

It is gratifying to note that there has been an update on the recent progress of the Loss and Damage Fund.

As recently as early November, delegates reached a tentative agreement on the draft of the "Loss and Damage" fund, which will be discussed at COP28. Despite some opposition, the Loss and Damage Fund is explicitly managed by the World Bank.

Generally speaking, the "climate finance" discussed in the international process mainly includes three aspects: one is climate mitigation or emission reduction, the second is climate adaptation, and the third is loss and damage.

Wu Changhua said that "loss and damage" is still very controversial, and that rich countries have been blocked from the agenda of the climate conference for years, because they fear that they will be held liable for huge compensation, and even more worried that if it becomes an international treaty system, they will be prosecuted in the future.

At present, the "Loss and Damage" Fund is used for post-disaster compensation and climate change adaptation in developing countries, and developed countries and all sectors of society are invited to contribute to the fund on a voluntary basis.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has also called on countries that have not yet made a commitment to announce their contributions to the Green Climate Fund and the new Loss and Damage Fund.

"It is difficult to make substantive progress at COP28 on the question of who will fund the funds, and there are great differences between the parties," Hu said. The US$100 billion in climate finance pledged by developed countries will be important at COP28 to rebuild mutual trust and signal that developed countries are willing to finance and finance climate action and transition in developing countries. ”

Aspect 4: Will China-US cooperation effectively promote more consensus at COP28?

Historically, the joint statement issued by China and the United States before each conference has played a role in promoting the climate conference that year.

For example, the China-US Joint Statement on Climate Change in 2014 and the China-US Joint Statement on Climate Change in 2015 played an important role in the successful conclusion of the Paris Agreement at the COP21 Paris Climate Conference, and the Glasgow Joint Declaration on Strengthening Climate Action in the 2021s also played a role in promoting the COP26 Glasgow Climate Conference.

"It is foreseeable that the joint statement issued before the conference, especially a pragmatic cooperation statement with many specific figures, will have a very great impact and will greatly promote the consensus on climate cooperation at this conference. Hu Bin said.

China's Special Envoy for Climate Change Xie Zhenhua and U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry held talks in Beijing in July 2023 and in Sunshine Township, California in early November 2023, and the two sides issued the Sunshine Country Statement on Strengthening Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis (hereinafter referred to as the Sunshine Country Statement) on November 15, deciding to launch the "Enhanced Climate Action Working Group in the 21st Century 20s" to carry out dialogue and cooperation to accelerate concrete climate action in the 21st century and 20s. The statement pointed out that China and the United States are committed to further strengthening dialogue and collaborative efforts, and supporting the UAE presidency to successfully host COP28.

Wu Changhua said that the world's two largest economies are "aligned" on "tripling the global installed capacity of renewable energy by 2030", which will surely have a significant impact. At the same time, these grips are also "in lockstep" with the position of the world's business leaders.

Li Zheng, Dean of the Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development at Tsinghua University, said that the consensus between China and the United States in the field of climate change plays a key role in the global climate governance pattern, and the Sunshine Land Statement released on the occasion of COP28 not only made clear and concrete arrangements for climate cooperation between the two countries, but also actively echoed the goals of COP28, clearly participated in the first global stocktake, mentioned climate finance targets, addressed loss and damage, and emphasized multilateral cooperation, which provided important support for the convening of COP28. In addition, specific recommendations were made on the topics of COP28, which helped build consensus and help the conference achieve a fruitful outcome.

China also attaches great importance to COP28 and hopes to strengthen global cooperation by taking stock of climate change. At the regular press conference held by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment in October, Xia Yingxian, Director General of the Department of Climate Change of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, said that China has always fully supported the host country, the United Arab Emirates, in hosting a successful COP and looks forward to working with all parties to ensure that COP28 continues and deepens the theme of "joint implementation".

At the beginning of November this year, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, together with relevant departments, issued China's first "Methane Emission Control Action Plan", which is the top-level design document for China's methane emission control and China's first comprehensive and dedicated methane emission control policy document.

Wu Changhua said that the discourse system of the international climate process is changing rapidly, and China should tell the story of clean energy transition to the world. China has made effective explorations in the fields of new energy transition, solar energy, wind energy, and non-fossil energy, and these achievements are obvious to all.

It can be seen from the recently released "2023 Annual Report on China's Policies and Actions on Climate Change" that in 2022, China's carbon emission intensity will drop by more than 51% compared with 2005, and the proportion of non-fossil energy in energy consumption will reach 17.5%. By the first half of 2023, the installed capacity of renewable energy will reach 1.322 billion kilowatts, accounting for about 48.8% of the total installed capacity, surpassing coal power historically.

COP28 will also officially convene the first global summit on climate change, which is said to be attended by 1,000 governors.

This is echoed in the Sunshine Land Statement, which strengthens cooperation at the local level. Hu Bin said that strengthening cooperation at the local level is a form of cooperation that avoids political risks in the United States as much as possible, and the state governments of the United States have relatively greater freedom in cooperation with China. COP28 has raised cities to such a level as a key way to achieve international climate cooperation in the future.

Let's wait and see what consensus can be reached and what breakthroughs can be made at COP28!