Strengthen the development of transition finance, maintain economic stability, coordinated and healthy development... Tu Guangshao and Han Yongwen spoke up
Securities Times reporter Jiang Dang
The August National Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index showed that the momentum of economic recovery is strengthening, but the manufacturing boom level is still below the critical point. Recently, Han Yongwen, vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, and Tu Guangshao, executive director of Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, respectively expressed their latest views on the economic issues that need to be paid great attention to in the process of promoting Chinese-style modernization and promoting effective market interaction to serve green and low-carbon development.
Leng Bing, deputy general manager of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, revealed at the event that it will accelerate the listing of more new energy metal varieties. In the past August, the first delivery of industrial silicon futures was successfully completed. The relevant persons in charge of Minmetals Securities and Minmetals Futures gave the latest research and judgment on the new energy key metals market.
Han Yongwen: Maintain stable, coordinated and healthy economic development
Han Yongwen said that from the perspective of economic development, to achieve and promote Chinese-style modernization, it is necessary to continue to maintain economic stability, coordination and healthy development, improve the quality of economic development, and further consolidate the foundation for the development of the real economy. Regarding the current trend of economic growth below the potential growth rate, he said that it is necessary to continuously deepen reform and opening up, effectively liberate social productive forces and release the vitality of economic development.
Han Yongwen said that sustained and stable, coordinated and healthy economic development is the basic condition for realizing Chinese-style modernization. To basically realize socialist modernization by 2035, the most basic goal is to reach the level of moderately developed countries in per capita GDP (gross domestic product), and its specific connotation is that per capita national income will double on the basis of 2020, and the average annual real growth of the national economy will be about 4.72%. In theory, as long as sustained and stable economic growth is maintained, innovation vitality is continuously enhanced, and total factor productivity is effectively released, this goal can be achieved. However, it should be noted that in recent years, China's economic growth has encountered a bottleneck unprecedented since the reform and opening up, the potential economic growth rate has been moving downward, and the actual economic growth is lower than the potential growth, which has increased the difficulty of achieving this goal. The trend of economic growth below potential growth requires continuous deepening of reform and opening up, effectively liberating social productive forces and releasing the vitality of economic development. In addition, it is also important to maintain coherence in macro, meso and micro policies.
Han Yongwen also stressed that to promote Chinese-style modernization, we must make sustained efforts to boost the quality of economic development. In recent years, the input-output benefits of China's economy have generally shown a downward trend. Under the condition that the dividend effect of traditional factor resources is gradually declining, the improvement of production efficiency and the growth of economic benefits need to rely more on the implementation of the strategy of strengthening the country in science and technology and education, and more on more efficient and orderly scientific and technological innovation vitality and market competitiveness. Effectively stimulate the scientific and technological innovation ability of the whole society, form an effective and powerful driving force for market competition, accelerate the transformation of scientific and technological achievements into advanced real productivity, effectively improve the level of total factor productivity, make every effort to improve the quality and efficiency of economic development, and enhance the ability of technology, human resources and capital appreciation.
Han Yongwen also pointed out that China needs to further consolidate the foundation for the development of the real economy, implement industrial infrastructure reengineering projects and major equipment technology research projects, make efforts in new economic fields such as digital economy, green economy, low-carbon economy, intelligent economy, bioeconomy, and circular economy, strengthen the layout in emerging fields such as digital technology, green energy technology, and carbon neutral technology, achieve curve overtaking, promote the high-end and intelligent development of manufacturing, and promote the deep integration of digital economy and real economy. Cultivate and form a commanding height for the development of modern emerging industries. Build a modern industrial system in the face of changes in the structure of domestic market demand, cultivate and develop local high-end industrial chains and supply chains, in-depth study of the industrial development foundation and factor endowment comparative advantages of different regions, eliminate the blocking points of market segmentation and obstacles, promote the transfer of low-end industries to the central and western regions, and keep them in the local development as much as possible.
Tu Guangshao: Further improve the market system to serve green development
In recent years, the scale of green finance in China has maintained a rapid growth rate. However, in Tu Guangshao's view, there are three imbalances in the current development of China's green financial system.
It is embodied in the following: First, the scale of equity and debt products is unbalanced. At present, China's green finance is developing rapidly, but it is still dominated by green credit, and there is a large space for the development of green bonds, green insurance, green funds (such as ESG investment, etc.), green trusts and other products, especially the development of equity investment represented by green funds (sustainable funds) is still far from the mature market, and there are deficiencies in the number and scale of funds.
Second, the structure of industries and sectors in which finance supports low-carbon development is unbalanced. There are more funds to support the development of pure green industries, but insufficient funds to support the low-carbon transformation of high-carbon industries. In fact, the transformation of high-carbon industries requires a lot of funds, and the success of the low-carbon transformation of enterprises in these industries is also of decisive significance to China's achievement of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, and it is necessary to increase efforts to promote transition finance.
Third, the cyclical structure of green financial products is also unbalanced. Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality are continuous capital investment and require huge amounts of funds, but from the current financing structure, China's long-term capital allocation is not enough.
Tu Guangshao stressed that only by optimizing and improving the market system for green and low-carbon development can we achieve interaction between markets.
The carbon market is an important investment and financing channel to achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Tu Guangshao suggested that we should pay attention to the construction of the carbon market system, gradually promote the expansion of the carbon market, strengthen the interaction between markets, realize the link between the carbon market and the financial market and capital market, consolidate infrastructure, strengthen regulatory coordination, and better serve green development.
Guangzhi Cold Ice: More new energy metal varieties will be launched quickly
Recently, the first delivery of industrial silicon futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was successfully completed. Guangzhi is the first product industrial silicon futures listed on December 22, 2022, and has been running for 8 months so far.
On July 21 this year, Guangzhou Futures launched the world's first physically delivered lithium futures variety. In the past two weeks, the average daily trading volume has increased to about 58,000 lots, and the position has also risen to about 35,000 lots, and the proportion of corporate customers' positions has increased from less than 10% on the first day of listing to more than 20%.
Leng Bing, deputy general manager of Guangzhou Futures Institute, said that the listing of industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures has laid the foundation for the new energy variety sector. In the next step, Guangzhi will continue to enrich the product system, accelerate the listing of more new energy metal varieties, strengthen market service capabilities, and promote industrial enterprises to make better use of the futures market.
Minmetals Securities Yang Chengxiao: Short-term lithium carbonate prices will fall, but it is difficult to return to the trough of 30,000-50,000
The latest data released by Shanghai Steel Union shows that on September 1, the average price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 02,000 yuan / ton from the previous trading day to 207,500 yuan / ton, and the price of lithium hydroxide and some lithium battery scrap also fell. Since the beginning of this year, the overall price of lithium carbonate has shown a volatile downward trend, and the current price of lithium carbonate is about 200,000 yuan / ton, which has been cut from the high point of the year.
Yang Chengxiao, director of Minmetals Securities Research Institute, predicted that in the short term, lithium prices will still fall to find rebalancing, the weakening of the inventory reservoir effect and the intensification of market games will push prices down, and the key to price trends is still China's month-by-month terminal sales and supply chain transmission smoothness.
In the medium and long term, global lithium prices are no longer affected by supply and demand, and the weight of off-balance sheet impact represented by supply chain restructuring, technology iteration, cost curve, and financial attributes has been further improved. On the demand side, the medium and long-term global demand is still bright, overseas demand is gradually relaying, and the second growth curve has begun to form in emerging application scenarios and energy storage. In general, the price cycle fell back to the bottoming period, but in the demand upward superimposed cost center rise, the price of lithium carbonate is difficult to return to the trough of 3-50,000 yuan.
Zhang Jianfeng, marketing director and general manager of Minmetals Futures Operation Center, said that with the adjustment of economic structure and technological progress, the capacity of the new energy financial market represented by lithium will continue to grow, and hedging in the futures market is an important starting point in response to its price fluctuations.
It is reported that the "lithium carbonate China Index" jointly developed by the Minmetals Industry Financial Research Institute and Shanghai Steel Union will be released in the near future, the "index" will track the daily price fluctuations of lithium carbonate, reflect the real market supply and demand data in the context of rapid changes in supply and demand in the industrial chain, provide a reference for the settlement of spot transactions of enterprises, and reduce the production and operation risks brought by lithium carbonate price fluctuations.
