The largest climate conference in history is here, and multiple challenges need to be addressed urgently

From November 30 to December 12, local time, the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) will be held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, for two weeks. The conference is expected to attract more than 70,000 participants, and some analysts believe that this will not only be the largest climate conference in history, but also the most influential climate conference in recent years.

Its enormous impact is mainly reflected in the topics that the conference will gather: first, to take stock of the Paris Agreement for the first time, summarize and assess the progress of implementation, and provide the necessary framework for the next steps of COP28, second, to accelerate the development of clean energy and phase out fossil fuel energy, and third, to accelerate the guarantee of financial support and green technology for developing countries, especially to implement the 100 billion US dollars of support funds promised in the past.

This year is considered the hottest on record. The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service announced on November 8 that October was the "hottest October" on record on Earth, and that there were five consecutive months of new high temperature records for the same period. Climate change is bringing more and more devastating extreme weather to the world, with hurricanes causing floods in Libya that have killed thousands, record heatwaves hitting many parts of North America, South America and Europe, Canada's worst wildfire season...

However, when it comes to tackling climate change, the international community is facing a crisis of confidence in its ability to deliver on past commitments.

There is a huge gap between the needs and actions to address climate change

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said on November 27 that world leaders must take action to break the vicious cycle of global warming at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Dubai to avoid climate change reaching a "fatal tipping point."

He pointed out that we are moving in the catastrophic direction of a catastrophic increase in the Earth's temperature by about 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, and if the status quo is maintained in terms of carbon emissions, then the ice sheet changes in Greenland and West Antarctica will cross a "fatal tipping point", when sea levels could be about 10 meters higher than they are now. This is a vicious circle, in which changes such as the reduction of ice cover will cause the planet to heat up faster.

According to the latest report from the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, countries' climate action plans are still insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Guterres said on the 14th that the gap between the needs and actions to address climate change is more threatening than ever, so in terms of climate action, gradual steps will not work, and the timeline for achieving net zero emissions must be accelerated. "COP28 must be the place to urgently close the climate ambition gap," he stressed. ”

The latest report from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) states that global greenhouse gas emissions are expected to be just 2% lower by 2030 than in 2019 if the latest nationally determined contributions submitted by countries are implemented. According to scientific research by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 to meet the goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.

Adaptation finance from developed countries to developing countries is far from sufficient

In recent years, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has released an annual emissions gap report in the run-up to the United Nations Climate Change Conference, with the aim of urging attention to climate change.

The 2023 Adaptation Gap Report, released on November 20, showed that global greenhouse gas emissions reached a new high in 2022, with the global average temperature in September 2023 1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The report estimates that a 28% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 on a current basis would take to meet the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, and a 42 percent reduction to reach the 1.5 degrees Celsius target.

The report notes that the current financing mobilized by developed countries is far from sufficient to help developing countries adapt to climate change, estimated at only one-tenth to one-eighteenth of the adaptation finance needed by developing countries. Modelling estimates that developing countries currently need about US$215 billion to US$387 billion a year to adapt to climate change, while in 2021 these countries received only about US$21 billion in adaptation finance from developed countries, a 15% decrease from 2020, with a funding gap of US$194 billion to US$366 billion.

Global climate change is exacerbating disasters such as droughts, wildfires and floods, and financial issues are the biggest obstacle to action by developing countries. At the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, developed countries, which bear historical responsibility for global climate change, pledged to provide $100 billion a year in climate finance to developing countries by 2020, but this has not yet been fulfilled.

Guterres stressed that governments must come together to provide the necessary financial support and partnerships to raise the ambition of their national climate plans and quickly put them into action. Developed countries must honour their financial commitments and rebuild trust.

(Dazhong Daily client reporter Zhou Yan comprehensive Xinhua News Agency, People's Daily Online, Finance Associated Press, etc.)