The "strongest brain" in the industry explores the development of the battery new energy industry

In the battery new energy track, China occupies a dominant position in multiple core supply chains of global power and energy storage batteries. The existing lithium battery technology has been relatively mature, and the technical routes and products such as fuel cells, sodium batteries, and solid-state batteries are accelerating their market applications. However, with the rapid rise of the lithium battery industry, crazy expansion and serious overcapacity, the imbalance between supply and demand and the sharp fluctuation of raw material prices have also followed, and the industrial risk accumulation has accelerated, especially in the context of the global economic downturn, the battery new energy industry is facing a pattern reshaping. How to find the next support point? At the 10th China (Shenzhen) Battery New Energy Industry International Summit Forum, the participating experts gave suggestions.

Yu Qingjiao, Secretary General of Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance and Executive Chairman of the Battery "Davos" Organizing Committee, said in his speech that China is the most competitive battlefield in the battery market. Judging from various statistical calibers, the future growth trend of the new energy battery in which we are located is certain, but the slowdown in growth has become a trend. The external environment is full of great uncertainties, although the tuyere is large, the risks are not small, and the competition is becoming increasingly fierce.

Looking forward to the next ten years, Yu Qingjiao believes that the new energy track of racing batteries, benign competition and cooperation can go far. Creating higher quality products at a lower cost, building a stable supply chain system, achieving steady growth in market orders, and building a healthy and benign business competition ecological environment for the whole industry chain are the keys to the successful passage of battery new energy industry chain enterprises through the cycle in the deep reshuffle, and it is also the foundation for China to continue to maintain its leading edge in this field.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the passenger car market information association, believes that China's automobile is currently the most volatile industry, and the world has achieved the characteristics of low profits and rapid development in the case of "lack of core and less lithium", and the competition pattern of the entire industry has changed rapidly. In particular, export + new energy has become the core of development and growth, and independent brands have performed well in exports and new energy, achieving a breakthrough in China's development by relying on independence. With the rapid development of lithium resources, especially in the past two years, lithium carbonate resources have obviously achieved a good situation of substantial growth in proven reserves, which has brought huge development space to the new energy vehicle industry.

The new energy market exploded in 2019, and in just 4 years, it has gone through nearly 20 years of development in the fuel vehicle market. While the total scale of new energy vehicles seems to be growing rapidly, the knockout competition is also accelerating, and the volume configuration, volume price, and selling cars at a loss. In the view of Tan Jian, deputy general manager of Great Wall Motor's ORA brand technology, the future development direction of China's new energy vehicles comes from the multiple influences of the government, users and enterprises. In the tide of new energy, the emphasis is on returning to the essence, subdividing the track, and developing steadily.

Zeng Xiangbing, director of Chery Automobile Battery Technology Committee, believes that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China exceeds 30%, and moderate growth to replace high-speed growth is the only way for the industry. At present, in the face of insufficient consumption capacity, OEMs need to conduct in-depth research on user needs and launch more cost-effective products, while battery cell factories need to reasonably plan production capacity, improve utilization rate, and develop differentiated products according to application scenarios through technological innovation to reduce costs. Zeng Xiangbing suggested that the competitiveness should be enhanced from improving the policy support system, strengthening cost control, improving capacity utilization, focusing on product demand, achieving differentiated layout, and continuously improving battery safety features.

Energy storage can improve the power system regulation and the ability to absorb new energy, and the new power system needs large-scale and high-safety energy storage technology for different durations, especially long-term energy storage technology. Zhao Tianshou, Dean of the Institute of Carbon Neutral Energy Research of Southern University of Science and Technology, pointed out that the construction of a new power system needs to promote the diversified development of new energy storage and support the construction of a multi-energy complementary energy system; there is a large gap in long-term energy storage technology, which is an important development direction of energy storage technology; electrochemical fluid batteries are easy to modularize, flexible, safe, and have no geographical restrictions, which are suitable for long-term and large-scale energy storage, and breaking through the bottleneck of energy storage through technological innovation is the key to seizing industrial opportunities. "China has entered a new era of lithium battery application, which is the era of energy storage. Starting from 2024, the era of energy storage will start from China to the world. Qi Lu, a professor at Peking University and chairman of the Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance, believes.

Driven by the "localization" policy, many leading domestic enterprises have begun to practice the concept of "global thinking and localized implementation". More and more enterprises are shifting from simple product exports to industrial exports, striving to expand overseas markets, establishing R&D/production centers, and realizing production localization and supply chain localization. Wu Hui, general manager of the research department of Yiwei Economic Research Institute and president of China Battery Industry Research Institute, mentioned that in the face of competition in the new energy Red Sea market, more and more companies have begun to enter the new energy industry to divide market share. In the face of such a huge market, ESG reports are an important basis for enterprises to identify high-quality customers and obtain investment.

Liu Dexian, co-president of Ningbo Rongbai New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., analyzed that on the one hand, there is a huge and mature market abroad, and competition depends on innovation, not a price war, and creates value for the entire industrial chain and industry. On the other hand, there are mature capital markets abroad, and we must make use of the mature capital markets in foreign countries to develop industries.

Zhang Cheng, deputy general manager of Honeycomb Energy, believes that it is also necessary to base itself on the international battery market. In the long run, the battery demand in the U.S. market may grow significantly in the future, reaching 58% to 198GWh by 2025 and 635GWh by 2030, the European battery demand may have an average annual growth rate of 41% by 2025, and the total demand will reach 579GWh by 2030, and the battery demand in the Chinese market will continue to maintain a relatively stable growth, reaching 1.3TWh by 2030, continuing to lead the world. In terms of global battery demand, it is expected to reach around 2.7TWh by 2030.

Regarding the development pattern of global intelligent manufacturing, Luo Pengfei, general manager of the market of Guangdong Jiemeng Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd., mentioned that the development pattern of world manufacturing is mainly concentrated in four countries: the United States, Germany, Japan and China. At present, the development of lithium battery in China is the most complete, large-scale and mature industry in the world, and lithium battery intelligent equipment is also in the forefront of the global competition pattern.

At the meeting, Zeng Shizhe, Vice President of NIO Automotive Battery System, Peng Aiping, General Manager of Technology Center of Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Group Co., Ltd., Xu Fei, General Manager of Polyfluorine New Materials Co., Ltd., and Chen Hong, Vice President and CTO of Shenzhen Xiongtao Power Technology Co., Ltd., exchanged and discussed.

This forum has attracted much attention from the industry, consisting of six sub-forums and 600 participants. At the same time, the 13th (2023) China Battery Industry Person of the Year/Innovation Award of the Year/Emerging Award of the Year/Excellent Supplier Award Ceremony, Competitiveness List, Featured White Paper Release and other wonderful contents were presented simultaneously.